Bin Laden And Equine Diplomacy. -- A Commentary

Horse Feathers And Horse Sense -- Stephen M. Walt, Foreign Policy

Ever since 9/11, commentators of a hawkish persuasion -- and most recently the New York Times' Thomas ("Suck on This") Friedman -- have been fond of quoting Osama bin Laden's statement that "When people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature they will like the strong horse."

Pundits like Friedman don't normally embrace any of Bin Laden's other views on world politics, but they like this line because it seems like a good reason for us to obsess about resolve, credibility, and the possibility that even the tiniest setback somewhere might have catastrophic consequences. It suggests that if third parties begin to suspect that the U.S. isn't the "strong horse," they will abandon us in droves and leave the United States isolated and friendless in a hostile world.

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My Comment: The comments to Stephen Walt's Foreign policy post are also a must read. As to what is my take .... Osama Bin Laden and a few of his followers have been able to accomplish the following ....

(1) 9/11. 3,000 dead, hundreds of billions in dollars lost.
(2) Provoked the invasion of Afghanistan. Lives and costs still rising.
(3) Provided one of the many reasons for the invasion of Iraq. Lives and costs still rising.
(4) Biggest military buildup since the end of the Cold War.
(5) U.S. standing on the international arena has suffered a serious hit.
(6) Political turmoil in the U.S. .... helping to elect a strong anti-war President in 2008.
(7) Pakistan fighting a civil war against its own Islamic extremists, many with ties to Al Qaeda.
(8) Bin Laden enjoys the support from tens of millions .... if not hundreds of millions .... of Muslims.

Yup .... for a guy who just lives in a cave .... he is just a nobody.