Do The Syrian Rebels Have The Numbers To Win?

New W. Intelligence: Syrian Rebels Don’t Have The Numbers To Win -- Debka File

The revised estimates compiled by US and French intelligence agencies on the relative strength of Syrian government and rebel forces have given Washington and Arab capitals backing the Syrian opposition pause. The Obama administration has built its policies around an estimated 70,000 rebel fighters, whereas the revised figure, according to debkafile’s intelligence sources, appears to be less than half - around 30,000. With some 3,000 jihadis, Al Qaeda-linked groups make up around one-tenth of total rebel strength.

Officials in Washington and Paris are trying to play down the revised estimates because it throws out the basic premise of the Obama administration’s Middle East policy that Bashar Assad can’t last more than six months against the rebel offensive.

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My Comment: I am usually skeptical of what Debka reports, but in this case they are raising an important question .... do the Syrian rebels have the numbers to defeat Assad's Syrian military? What's my take .... for now the answer is no .... the Syrian Free Army does not have the numbers to defeat the Syrian military. What's left of Assad's military will probably stay loyal to him, and with his ranks now being filled with young men from the Allawite community .... coupled with additional supporters/trainers from Hezbollah and Iran .... he can maintain the status quo. But on the flip side .... Asssad's military is not capable of controlling the country, and with asymmetrical war now being waged against them in the regions that they do control .... they are being slowly bled. So what is the end result .... I am still going by my original prediction that this civil war is going to burn on for at least one more year, and when it starts to calm down we will be witnessing a Syria that will resemble Lebanon .... a deeply fractured country divided along sectarian lines.