Is The Arab Spring Over?

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Graphic: Potential Outcomes in the Crisis Countries

Has the Arab Spring Stalled? Autocrats Gain Ground in Middle East -- Alexander Smoltczyk and Volkhard Windfuhr, Spiegel Online

Burning churches in Cairo, dead and wounded in Syria, Libya and Yemen, and a deathly silence in Bahrain. The Arab protest movement has come to a standstill, and the kings, emirs and sultans are rallying to launch a counterrevolution.

According to the "Fundamental Law of Revolution," regimes fall when those at the bottom are fed up with the status quo and those at the top are no longer capable of remaining in power.

That was the experience of Vladimir Ilyich Lenin.

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My Comment: My prediction .... Gaddafi's Libyan regime will collapse, but only after a war of attrition has killed thousands and created a million plus refugees. Tunisia and Egypt will elect Islamic governments that are hostile to the West. Assad of Syria will survive, but only after killing a few thousand and imprisoning tens of thousands more. Yemen will have a new government, but Yemen will for all intent and purposes become a dysfunctional and failed state (more so than what it is today). The Gulf states and their royal families will survive, but will be always under threat from extremist groups and Iran. And as for the Israeli - Palestinian conflict .... expect a return to low intensity conflict with moments of intense battles.

Arab spring ?!?!?!? .... this is becoming a nightmare for the Arab people and for everyone else.