Using Combat Data And Reports To Predict Combat In Afghanistan

U.S. paratroopers conduct a security patrol outside Forward Operating Base Salerno in Afghanistan's Khowst province, July 7, 2012. U.S. Army photo by Staff Sgt. Jason Epperson

Computer Analysis Predicted Rises, Ebbs In Afghanistan Violence -- L.A. Times

Researchers used previous data of violence in Afghanistan to predict with striking accuracy which areas of the country in 2010 would see more bloodshed and which would see less.

In August 2010, shortly after WikiLeaks released tens of thousands of classified documents that cataloged the harsh realities of the war in Afghanistan, a group of friends — all computer experts — gathered at the New York City headquarters of the Internet company Bitly Inc. to try and make sense of the data.

The programmers used simple code to extract dates and locations from about 77,000 incident reports that detailed everything from simple stop-and-search operations to full-fledged battles. The resulting map revealed the outlines of the country's ongoing violence: hot spots near the Pakistani border but not near the Iranian border, and extensive bloodshed along the country's main highway. They did it all in just one night.

Read more ....

Update #1: Afghanistan on 240 incidents a week -- Science News
Update #2: Researchers accurately ‘predict’ events in war zone -- Cosmos

My Comment: I would not be surprised if every military organization in the world is now looking at this report .... but what will be more important than using computer models to predict future violence is .... knowing how to break this cycle of violence and war.