Saturday, July 28, 2012

Can A U.S.-Iran War Breakout Accidentally?

The USS Carl Vinson leads the USS Bunker Hill and the USS Halsey during a passing exercise with Indian navy ships during Exercise Malabar 2012 in the Indian Ocean, April 16, 2012. The Vinson, Bunker Hill and Halsey comprise Carrier Strike Group 1 and are participating in the annual bilateral naval field training exercise with the Indian navy to advance multinational maritime relationships and mutual security issues. U.S. Navy photo by Seaman George M. Bell

How Drama On The High Seas Could Spark A U.S-Iran War -- Robert Dreyfuss, The Diplomat

A recent incident with Indian fishermen shows how easily Iran and the U.S. could slip into a conflict neither wants but may find hard to avoid.

Once again, there are worries that Iran might attempt to close the Straits of Hormuz in a confrontation with the United States or, even less likely, in retaliation for U.S. and European economic sanctions against Iran.

In Washington, though, Iran’s rumblings aren’t taken too seriously: Not only is it unlikely that Iran’s navy could actually close the straits, but it utterly lacks the capacity to sustain a battle at sea against what would be an all-out counterattack by U.S. naval forces to clear the waterway.

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My Comment
: Both Iran and the U.S. know the red lines that they must not cross (the Indian fishing boat did not). If an incident occurs that causes a shooting war, it would be because one of these sides made the decision to "cross that red line".

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