A Britain's Take On The West's Involvement In Syria's Civil War

Violence: Peter Hitchens says that arming the rebels against forces loyal to President Assad (pictured) is a recipe for starting a major war

We Set Syria Ablaze... Now We're Hurling In Explosives -- Peter Hitchens, Daily Mail

Imagine this: newspapers and broadcasters in China suddenly start to denounce the British Government.

They call it a ‘regime’. They say that its treatment of its Muslim minority is cruel and unjust.

Soon, their views are echoed by the Chinese foreign minister, who in a speech at the United Nations says that Britain’s treatment of its minorities is a disgrace, and calls for sanctions against this country.

The Chinese ambassador turns up as an ‘observer’ at an Islamist demonstration in Birmingham.

Some protesters are injured. Carefully-edited footage of the occasion is shown on global TV stations, in which the police are made to look brutal and the provocations against them are not shown.

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My Comment: I disagree with Peter Hitchens' analysis that we set Syria ablaze .... Syria was already ablaze, where we are at fault is that we have not helped the situation .... and neither has anyone else (i.e. Russia, Syria, Iran, etc.). But I do agree with Peter Hitchens' position that we should not arm the rebels .... our history for doing such things has proven to be dismal in the past decade, and I do not have any confidence that we have learned from our mistakes.

The Alawite Stronghold Of Syria

In The Hills of Alawistan -- Alia Malek, Foreign Policy

In Syria’s beautiful northwest, all is peaceful. But death is never far away.

TARTOUS, Syria — Above the Syrian coastal town of Tartous, groups of Alawite men and boys were amassing at different landings along a road that winds higher and higher, away from the Mediterranean and into the hills. We saw them assembling as we traveled the same path, taking advantage of a day off to get out of the city.

On this new spring Sunday, they were waiting for the corpses of Alawite soldiers -- conscripts in the Syrian Army -- to arrive from below. A funeral procession was building, one motorcycle at a time, one open-cabbed truck at a time, each laden with several passengers. The mothers and wives were recognizable in their black clothes with sheer white scarves draped around their necks, which have become public uniform once a family has been anointed with loss.

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My Comment: This region will probably be Bashar Assad's 'last stand'.

The Strain Of Civil War Is Breaking Syria Apart

Fighters from the Free Syrian Army. Khalil Ashawi/Reuters

Syria Begins to Break Apart Under Pressure From War -- New York Times

CAIRO — The black flag of jihad flies over much of northern Syria. In the center of the country, pro-government militias and Hezbollah fighters battle those who threaten their communities. In the northeast, the Kurds have effectively carved out an autonomous zone.

After more than two years of conflict, Syria is breaking up. A constellation of armed groups battling to advance their own agendas are effectively creating the outlines of separate armed fiefs. As the war expands in scope and brutality, its biggest casualty appears to be the integrity of the Syrian state.

On Thursday, President Obama met in Washington with the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and once again pressed the idea of a top-down diplomatic solution. That approach depends on the rebels and the government agreeing to meet at a peace conference that was announced last week by the United States and Russia.

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My Comment: This is an excellent analysis from The New York Times. Key paragraph is the following ....

.... Three Syrias are emerging: one loyal to the government, to Iran and to Hezbollah; one dominated by Kurds with links to Kurdish separatists in Turkey and Iraq; and one with a Sunni majority that is heavily influenced by Islamists and jihadis.

Indeed.

Is Syria’s Bashar Al-Assad Winning?

Syria’s Bashar Al-Assad Is Winning -- Mike Giglio, Daily Beast

Obama isn’t jumping in, and neither is anyone else. Combine that with a string of military victories, and Assad is looking stronger than he has in months. Mike Giglio on the dictator’s next act.

Despite President Obama’s assertion on Thursday that he reserves “the options of taking additional steps, both diplomatic and military,” foreign intervention in Syria seems a distant prospect, and that, along with a string of military successes, has fueled the perception that president Bashar al-Assad now has the upper hand in his country’s bloody civil war. As Republican Sen. John McCain bluntly put it this week: "Right now, Bashar al-Assad is winning."

During the last few months, the Syrian military have retaken strategic areas across the country, reopening supply lines in the north and south while ramping up its offensive in the western city of Homs, a critical gateway between Damascus and the coast. Assad’s forces have also reinforced their strongholds in Damascus and elsewhere while weathering what rebels had billed as a major offensive in the capital.

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My Comment: Even if he wins .... which is hard to see from my vantage point .... it will be a fools victory with a devastated country splintered along sectarian lines. Think Somalia .... but in a far darker place.

Can Syria's Civil War Last 10 More Years?

Free Syrian Army fighters in the al-Ziyabiya area in Damascus. Photograph: Reuters

Why The Syrian War Could Last Ten Years -- Michael J. Totten, World Affairs

I wouldn’t be surprised if Bashar al-Assad falls sometime soon, but I also will not be surprised if the year 2020 rolls around and Syria has all but ceased to exist as a nation state and he’s still ruling fragments of the ex-country like a Somali-style warlord. Lebanon’s Levantine sectarian war lasted fifteen long years. That doesn’t mean Syria’s Levantine sectarian war will last as long, but it could.

Take a look at the new piece by Gary Brecher (the self-described War Nerd). His use of the Northern Ireland analogy is apt. I’ve used it myself to describe Lebanon’s war, and due to Lebanon’s lack of a sectarian majority, it’s the reason no one, not even Hezbollah, can ever win an offensive war in that country.

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My Comment: Michael Totten makes a very good case. Read it all.

Is Arming The Syrian Rebels The Same As Arming al-Qaeda

Arming The Syrian Rebels Is The Same As Arming al-Qaeda -- Con Coughlin, The Telegraph

Unarguably the week's most grisly story must be the YouTube video that purports to show a Syrian rebel commander eating the heart of a captured regime fighter. Like so many of the atrocities in this vile conflict, it is impossible to verify for sure whether this really happened, or just clever propaganda put out by the Assad regime to discredit the opposition.

Either way, this grisly incident has highlighted the deepening concern among the Western powers about the rebel forces' conduct, and has prompted the British and French governments to call for Jabhat al-Nusra, the Islamist faction of the Syrian opposition, to be given the same designation as al-Qaeda, and outlawed as a terrorist organisation.

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My Comment: In this bloody civil war the old motto .... "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" certainly holds in this case. So is arming the Syrian rebels the same as arming Al Qaeda .... probably yes.

Despair Rises As Syria's Civil War Grinds On

Excitement Fades To Despair In Rebel-Held Syria As War Grinds On -- Tom A. Peter, Christian Science Monitor

Early rebel optimism in Syria has given way to a grim realization that victory may still be years away. For the past two months, civilians have been fleeing Syria at a rate of 8,000 per day.

Before war came to Aleppo, Syria, Abu Anas was a well-to-do landscape architect who paid a considerable sum to send his children to private school. Now an opposition fighter, he spends his time away from the front line preparing his three sons, the oldest of which is 10, for the possibility of military service.

Abu Anas doesn't want any of his sons to join the fight until they are men, but he acknowledges they may not wait.

"I hope the revolution is victorious soon, but I think it could take up to 10 years," he says. "If I die before we obtain victory, my sons will be able to continue fighting," he says.

"I will not be happy if my children leave the school to fight, but what can I do? I hope it will not come to this, but if this does happen I will be proud of my sons. It means that my sons have learned a good lesson: not to let a dishonest person control the country."

More than two years into Syria's uprising, and almost a year since the Free Syrian Army (FSA) began fighting in Aleppo, it's hard to find anyone here who will offer an optimistic prognosis. At best, residents and fighters still believe in the revolution but accept that it will take much longer than they expected to remove President Bashar al-Assad. At worst, onetime supporters now question whether the revolution was worth the costs and find themselves at odds with both the opposition and Mr. Assad.

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My Comment: At the beginning of the year I had concurred with Russian intelligence that predicted publicly that Syria's Assad government would implode by the end of this year. They did add a caveat to this prediction .... if Iran/Hezbollah/etc. intervened, this may change the dynamics. Well .... they are intervening .... and the civil war is now stalemated .... and the despair is rising. But what I have also noticed is that no one on the rebel side is talking about quitting .... and more to the point .... they have resolved to themselves that regardless of how long this lasts this is a fight this to the finish. So this is now a fight to the finish .... a fight that probably means a few more years of violence and bloodshed.

Why The U.S. Cannot 'Fix' Syria

With Or Without Us -- Fareed Zakaria, Time

Those urging the U.S. to intervene in Syria are certain of one thing: If we had intervened sooner, things would be better in that war-torn country. Had the Obama Administration gotten involved earlier, there would be less instability and fewer killings. We would not be seeing, in John McCain's words of April 28, "atrocities that are on a scale that we have not seen in a long, long time."

In fact, we have seen atrocities much worse than those in Syria very recently, in Iraq under U.S. occupation only few years ago. From 2003 to 2012, despite there being as many as 180,000 American and allied troops in Iraq, somewhere between 150,000 and 300,000 Iraqi civilians died and about 1.5 million fled the country. Jihadi groups flourished in Iraq, and al-Qaeda had a huge presence there. The U.S. was about as actively engaged in Iraq as is possible, and yet more terrible things happened there than in Syria. Why?

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My Comment: I am usually in disagreement with Fareed Zakaria .... but on this topic he is right.

The World Is Watching President Obama's Next Move

Chemical Weapons In Syria -- The Economist

America needs to take action against Bashar Assad

BARACK OBAMA has long said that America would regard the use of chemical weapons in Syria as crossing a red line: if Bashar Assad deployed them, in other words, the United States would intervene in Syria’s civil war. Now evidence is mounting of such a crime. If it proves solid, Mr Obama’s reaction will show Mr Assad, and the rest of the world, whether American threats are to be taken seriously.

Chemical weapons are not much use on the battlefield, but they can demoralise the rebels and spread terror among the population. They may have an indirect purpose, too, for Mr Assad. If he uses them and the outside world fails to take action, his supporters are likelier to conclude that he will stay in power and his opponents will lose faith.

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My Comment: Because of President Obama's "red lines" and threats of intervention .... we are where we are today. As to what is my take .... Michael Burleigh's commentary on Western intervention is where I stand today. The situation in Syria is horrific .... but sending Western troops in would be a catastrophe.

Will The U.S. Go To War In Syria?

Will We Go To War In Syria? -- Ali Gharib, Daily Beast

Yesterday's news that the U.S. had evidence of chemical weapons "exposure"—not necessarily "use," as Max Fisher astutely noted—means that America might be at war with Syria sooner rather than later. That's because Barack Obama previously warned the Bashar Al Assad's embattled regime "that the use of chemical weapons is a game changer." Some seventy-thousand Syrians have already reportedly perished in Syria's brutal civil war, many at the hands of the tyrant Assad. So the question becomes: why do chemical weapons change the game? Not without irony, the answer "has nothing to do with the future of Syria," points out Jeffrey Lewis at Arms Control Wonk. "We have a stake in strengthening the norm against chemical weapons use. If Assad is using chemical weapons to hold on to power, we have an interest in ensuring that his government falls and that the responsible regime figures take their turn at the Hague." That doesn't mean you rush in. "Once we go in, the gloves are off," Lewis warns. Experts from the Arms Control Association echoed that sentiment: "Such an intervention would not necessarily prevent further use of chemical weapons. In fact, it could increase the chances that Assad will follow through on his threat to use chemical weapons more broadly or cause the military conflict to spread into neighboring countries."

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My Comment: If these allegations are true .... and if the Syrian government continues to use chemical weapons in isolated cases .... I do not see the U.S. assembling tens of thousands of U.S. military personnel in Jordan and Turkey, the expenditure of tens of billions of dollars, the political push to gain allies to cooperate with us, the mobilization of the necessary naval and air force resources, and President Obama hitting the air waves to convince the American people that such a conflict is necessary. Nope .... I just do not see it.

What I do see is increase support for the rebels .... the assembling of military assets to train the Syrian rebel army in places like Jordan and Turkey .... and maybe .... if Syria continues to use chemical weapons .... the establishment of a no-fly zone.That will be the limit of U.S. intervention .... and only that.

The Coming Battle For Damascus

The Battle of Armageddon -- Michael Weiss, Real Clear World/NOW

The last fortnight has seen two separate rumors that Bashar al-Assad had been shot or killed by a member of his inner circle. The first, on March 23-24, had it that one of his Iranian bodyguards turned on him and critically wounded the Syrian dictator who was then rushed to Al-Shami Hospital in Damascus. The second, which generated more interest on social media owing to the surfeit of detail surrounding this supposed 'operation,' occurred last weekend when members of the Douma Martyrs' Brigade aired a YouTube video alleging that Republican Guard commander Mohammed Ali Jafari assassinated Assad. The Brigade spokesperson then dared the slain to show his face in the next two weeks; the regime laughed this off. Neither rumor, it should probably be stipulated, was true.

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My Comment: A thoughtful analysis on the battle for Damascus from one of the best analysts on the scene. Read it all.

Everyday Life In Aleppo's Death Zone

A member of the Martyr Abdallah Al Kaakeh battalion runs for cover from snipers on the front line of the conflict with forces loyal to the government. Reuters

Aleppo At War: Everyday Life In The Death Zone -- Kurt Pelda In Aleppo (Syria), Spiegel Online

Buildings burst in a hail of exploding shells, killer shrapnel tears through the air. Around the next corner, bakers work while children comb through debris for corpses. That's Aleppo today -- a city where death is part of everyday life.

In Aleppo, every footstep is a crunch. The streets are strewn with rubble and broken glass from destroyed buildings and shattered windows. It's a sound that distinguishes a walk around this war-torn Syrian town from any other city in the world.

Abu Jamal is a young fighter from Brigade North Storm, a unit of the Syrian resistance. His comrades just call him "the sniper" because he spends his days creeping over rubble and broken glass from one building to the next in search of a firing position.

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My Comment: I believe that Syria's rebels (with time) are eventually going to win .... but what will be left will be just devastated cities, a traumatized population, and sectarian hatreds that are going to take a century (if not more) to heal.

The Case For Arming Syrian Rebels

Free Syrian Army fighters take positions against forces loyal to Bashar Assad in Idlib Province, Feb. 21. Reuters

The Case For Arming Syrian Rebels -- Rachel Kleinfeld, Wall Street Journal

The faster Bashar Assad falls, the faster Iran loses its main conduit for shipping weapons to terrorist groups that attack Israel and other U.S. allies.

Wars are ugly. They are deadly. They have unintended consequences and spillover effects. And yet, sometimes, putting a thumb on the scales of war is the lesser evil. Sometimes, dealing in arms is the right thing to do.

Arming the rebels of Syria is such a cause. But don't take my word for it. As Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, revealed this month in Senate testimony, they backed a plan last year to arm carefully vetted Syrian rebels. The plan was also backed by then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and then-CIA Director David Petraeus. They were vetoed by a White House that sees itself as tough and realistic—but is instead being myopic.

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My Comment: I have lost count on how many past politicians/pundits/generals/and presidents have warned us to stay out of Middle Eastern wars and conflicts. I would think that Syria would be one of those conflicts .... especially in consideration of the sectarian nature of that war.  But if I was a betting man I will have to say that the U.S. is probably going to get involved .... through proxies or through direct assistance .... and we will probably end up not happy with what we may have sowed .... just as we are nto happy with what our intrerventions in Afghanistan and Iraq have produced.

What Next In Syria?

What Next In Syria? Death Toll Continues To Rise -- CNN

(CNN) -- Another day, another toll in Syria's civil war: 213 dead.

For many around the world, the story of the fighting in Syria is a near daily listing of casualty figures that represent the devastation of war. For those on the ground, it's the reality of nearly two years of fighting with no end in sight.

It's that reality the country's principal opposition group says led it to suspend its participation in next week's meeting in Rome of the Friends of Syria -- an international conference of diplomats from more than 60 nations working to bring about an end to the violence.

"Enough is enough. The whole world is not doing anything," Adib Shishakly, a member of the Syrian National Coalition, told CNN on Friday. "We are not going to any more conferences."

In a statement released Friday, the coalition said it also would not accept upcoming invitations to meetings in Washington and Moscow.

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My Comment: What's my prediction ..... 2013 will be the year that Syria's bloody civil war will escalate to truly horrific levels .... with probably a doubling in the casualties (70,000 reported killed so far) by the end of 2013. Syria's civil war will also spread to Lebanon as this post so clearly reveals why.

A New Direction Is Needed For Syria

Syria Demands A New Policy -- David Rohde, Reuters

Typhoid and hepatitis outbreaks are spreading. At least 70,000 people are dead, and there are 850,000 refugees. After covering the battle for Damascus for a month, my colleague – photographer Goran Tomasevic – declared the situation a “bloody stalemate” this week.

“I watched both sides mount assaults, some trying to gain just a house or two, others for bigger prizes, only to be forced back by sharpshooters, mortars or sprays of machine-gun fire,” Tomasevic, a gifted and brave photographer, wrote in a chilling first-hand account. “As in the ruins of Beirut, Sarajevo or Stalingrad, it is a sniper’s war.”

The Obama administration’s policy toward Syria is a failure. Bashar al-Assad is hanging onto power. Iran, Hezbollah and Russia are funneling him more aid, armaments and diplomatic cover than ever. And Syrian rebels who once hailed the United States now loathe it.

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My Comment: A brutally blunt commentary on the civil war in Syria. Read it all.

Update: Reporters in Syria See No End in Sight -- The Lede/New York Times

Why The Islamists Will Win In Syria

A Syrian rebel prays on a street in the northern city of Aleppo in January. Many Syrians are debating what role Islam should play in Syria if the current secular government is toppled. Muzaffar Salman/Reuters/Landov

Why Syria’s Islamists Are Gaining -- J. Malcolm Garcia, New York Times

A YOUNG fighter for the Free Syrian Army sat at a checkpoint on a couch taken from an abandoned house. He cradled his Kalashnikov and waited on the empty street for a car to inspect, or a pedestrian to pat down. If only the future of Syria would reveal itself to him as easily.

The rebels in the Free Syrian Army don’t doubt that they will drive President Bashar al-Assad from power — eventually — but they have no idea what will happen afterward: Democracy? An Islamic republic? An Islamic dictatorship? The fighters I met on a recent visit here were unable to articulate any long-term political vision.

While the young rebel sat at his checkpoint, and while Americans continue to debate whether to intervene in Syria or just look the other way, Islamist militants are exploiting the uncertainty here. They have a clear mission: imposing an Islamist state in place of Mr. Assad.

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My Comment: Are the Islamists becoming the dominant opposition force in Syria .... when I read reports like this one everyday I will have to say yes. Should we be surprised by these developments .... no. The West has abandoned Syria .... there is simply no stomach to get involved in another Middle Eastern war .... but this is a sentiment that unfortunately many Syrians simply do not understand. In the meantime as the civil war continues and the body count skyrockets .... the population becomes more radical .... and in the end they will probably be the only ones left because everyone else is either dead or out of the country.

Is The Endgame Nowhere In Sight In Syria?

The Endgame In Syria Is Nowhere In Sight -- Kenneth Bandler, FOX News

Wither Syria? Some observers interpreted UN-Arab League envoy Lakhdar Brahimi’s visit to Damascus and certain Russian statements as proof positive that the Syrian conflict will be resolved soon. It will not. Predicting that the endgame for Syria is imminent, it turns out, is wishful thinking.

The year 2013 promises to be as traumatic for the Syrian people as was 2012, when President Bashar al-Assad showed no hesitation in using whatever was available in his arsenal, including Scud missiles and cluster bombs, against the Syrian people.

Indeed, a new UN report confirms that what has transpired in Syria since the first crackdown in March 2011 is actually worse than we thought. "The number of casualties is much higher than we expected, and is truly shocking,” said UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay. More than 60,000 people were killed, about 25 percent more than the previously reported death figures. And since these include only those casualties that were officially registered, the actual number is likely higher.

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My Comment: I disagree .... the end game is in sight .... but only after another year of war and an additional 100,000+ killed. The only thing that will change this prediction is if the Assad regime starts to use WMDs, or foreign powers intervene. As to what will happen to Syria after the regime has fallen .... that's another story.

The Best Commentary That I Have Read On The U.S. Role In The Syrian Civil War

Syria’s Chaos Isn’t America’s Fault -- Aaron David Miller, Washington Post

Who lost Syria? Comments of some U.S. senators, analysts and journalists, including the editorial board of this newspaper, suggest there is no doubt: Bashar al-Assad and his thugocracy are primarily responsible for the killings, but the tragedy of Syria is also a direct result of a terrible failure of leadership on the part of the international community, and of the United States in particular.

Syria, it is charged, is Barack Obama’s Rwanda.

Don’t believe it.

The idea that Syria was anyone’s to win or lose, or that the United States could significantly shape the outcome there, is typical of the arrogant paternalism and flawed analysis that have gotten this country into heaps of trouble in the Middle East over the years.

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My Comment: I concur .... the Syrian civil war was started by Syrians .... caused by an intransigent government and a Sunni population who decided to say 'enough is enough'. And while we all do want to help the Syrian people .... as we have learned in Iraq and in Afghanistan .... our involvement will not help stabilize a tribal/religious/sectarian conflict that has been ongoing for decades if not longer .... and where the international consensus on this conflict is completely absent and/or disorganized. The best that we can do is to provide humanitarian assistance and to support our allies in the region .... and to watch very closely on what happens to all of those WMDs when the conflict is finally over and Assad is out of power.

Is The Syrian Rebellion Now In Its Deathwatch Phase?

The Deathwatch Phase -- Strategy Page

December 21, 2012: The Syrian rebellion is now in its deathwatch phase. The government is doomed and its forces grow weaker every day. It’s only a matter of time before the government losses control of the entire country and surviving officials flee for sanctuary. Allies (Iran, Russia, China) have been quietly offering refuge to Assad and his senior aides. President Basher Assad keeps making public announcements that he has no intention of leaving. The same can’t be said about the several thousand senior officials he depends on to control the country. Many of these people have committed known criminal acts over the decades and have to fear rebel retribution if they are still in Syria when the rebels win. Many of these officials have already sent their families into exile and when these army and government leaders join their families in large numbers, you’ll know it’s the end. That is expected to happen within the next few months or weeks.

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My Comment: I concur with this analysis .... with the exception that I think that the fighting will last to the end of 2013 .... and if Assad and his military use chemical weapons .... even longer than that. But the dye has already been cast .... the Syrian military may have the weapons, but they are losing men .... and they have only so many men left in this war of attrition. As far as the rebels are concern .... if they lose 2 men (if not more) for every Syrian soldier killed .... they are winning .... and as time makes the rebel soldiers more formidable and experienced fighters .... that ratio will probably become 1:1.

The Endgame For Syrian President Assad

SYRIA EXPERT: Assad Will Eventually Flee To The Coast And Rebels Will Battle Each Other -- Michael Kelley, Business Insider

Syria expert Joshua Landis told Voice of America journalist Cecily Hilleary that he thinks Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will eventually flee to the coastal mountains of his ancestral Alawite homeland.

Landis, whose wife is Alawite, said Assad will allow Damascus to be destroyed before relinquishing it to rebels. When he does "the Syrian Army, which has now largely been turned into an Alawite militia, will be forced back into the coastal mountains."

Assad and his troops will be able to survive there, according to Landis, if Iran and Russia continue to provide support in the form of weapons and money while the Sunni Arabs that make up the opposition fail to unify.

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My Comment: I call this the Lebanon scenario .... a country that is divided along sectarian lines. For Syria it will be Alawites on the Mediterranean coast, Kurds in the north, Sunnis in much of Syria, and other groups (Christians, Druze, etc.) scattered everywhere.