Is China Pushing Japan And South Korea To Develop Nuclear Weapons?

Does China Really Want a Nuclear Japan and South Korea? -- Bob Corker, Wall Street Journal

The potential for an atomic arms race in East Asia is real. Beijing must realize this.

North Korea's increased belligerence has alarmed the U.S. and its allies and heightened tensions in the Asian-Pacific region. As usual, though, the hand-wringing in Washington, Tokyo, Beijing and Seoul isn't accompanied by any new ideas on what to do to solve the perennial problem of Pyongyang and its illicit nuclear weapons program.

Most problematic, perhaps, is that nothing has altered the strategic calculus of China—the most influential player with respect to North Korea, and the one without which it is hard to see a resolution.

North Korea was high on the agenda during my recent visit to Northeast Asia, but the reaction in Beijing to Pyongyang's bluster and threats was markedly different than in Tokyo or Seoul. Officials I met with in Japan and South Korea, including Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and President Park Gyun-hye, voiced similar concerns over North Korea's growing capabilities and the potential consequences of escalating tensions on the Korean peninsula.

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My Comment: If the U.S. was not in the picture .... and the North Korean threat being what it is .... both South Korea and Japan would have developed nuclear weapons years ago. But the U.S. is in the picture .... hence China's relaxed altitude to a crisis that they really have no stomach to get involved in. As to what is my take .... such a status quo cannot last forever .... but for some reason the Chinese have made the decision to not do anything unless it becomes a real crisis. Is such a policy short sighted .... yes. But that is where Beijing's mindset is at for the moment.

Will The Asian Century Also Be A Century Of Conflict?

Graph from Brookings

Asian Century Marked by Rising Conflict -- Rory Medcalf, Real Clear World/The Australian

Armed tensions in the South China Sea, China and Japan edging to the brink of war, and now a North Korean nuclear test - welcome to the Asian century.

This is not the Asian century economist Ken Henry and the Australian government had in mind when they released their hopeful report of the same name just a few months ago.

That document was mostly about how Australians might best prepare for the opportunities of unstoppable economic growth and middle-class aspiration in Asia's rising powers, especially China and India.

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My Comment: This commentary is from an Australian perspective .... but it holds true for everyone else. Asia is undergoing extraordinary economic growth and development .... but the old historical and nationalistic "demons" are still there, and it is going to take more than sound economic development to excise this mindset.

Is East Asia The 21rst Century's Version Of The Balkans?

Credit: Stephanie d'Otreppe/NPR

A Maritime Balkans Of The 21st Century? -- Kevin Rudd, Foreign Policy

East Asia is a tinderbox on water.

These are no ordinary times in East Asia. With tensions rising from conflicting territorial claims in the East China and South China seas, the region increasingly resembles a 21st-century maritime redux of the Balkans a century ago -- a tinderbox on water. Nationalist sentiment is surging across the region, reducing the domestic political space for less confrontational approaches. Relations between China and Japan have now fallen to their lowest ebb since diplomatic normalization in 1972, significantly reducing bilateral trade and investment volumes and causing regional governments to monitor developments with growing alarm. Relations between China and Vietnam, and between China and the Philippines, have also deteriorated significantly, while key regional institutions such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have become increasingly polarized. In security terms, the region is more brittle than at any time since the fall of Saigon in 1975.

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My Comment: The pressure points in East Asia are China - Japan and China - Vietnam. In both situations there is a long history of conflict as well as bitter differences over what the territorial borders should be. Throw in nationalism .... and there is now no interest to even contemplate a platform for negotiation and compromise. Throw in the other smaller players .... Philippines, Taiwan, etc. ... we are now in a situation where anything that is perceived as an affront to one's sovereignty can easily spiraled into a major international incident .... and even into an armed conflict.

The Next Big War Will Be In Asia

Credit: Stephanie d'Otreppe/NPR

The Next War -- Michael Klare, Real Clear World/Tom Dispatch

Don't look now, but conditions are deteriorating in the western Pacific. Things are turning ugly, with consequences that could prove deadly and spell catastrophe for the global economy.

In Washington, it is widely assumed that a showdown with Iran over its nuclear ambitions will be the first major crisis to engulf the next secretary of defense -- whether it be former Senator Chuck Hagel, as President Obama desires, or someone else if he fails to win Senate confirmation. With few signs of an imminent breakthrough in talks aimed at peacefully resolving the Iranian nuclear issue, many analysts believe that military action -- if not by Israel, then by the United States -- could be on this year's agenda.

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My Comment: I call this the nightmare scenario.

War Clouds In Asia?

Ripe For Rivalry -- Victor Cha, Foreign Policy

Has Asia's moment of reckoning finally arrived?

On Wednesday, North Korea successfully launched a rocket that achieved what few countries outside of the United States, China, and Russia have -- a demonstrated long-range ballistic missile launch capability. The country is now one step closer to being able to launch a nuclear bomb across the Pacific. In early December, India's top admiral seemed to suggest that his navy would protect India-Vietnam oil exploration in the South China Sea from Chinese belligerence, while China and Japan aggressively re-affirmed their "sacred" right to the disputed Senkaku island chain in the East China Sea (which the Chinese call the Diaoyu). China and the Philippines are still facing off over a shoal in the South China Sea. It's all enough to make one wonder: Is 2013 the year that conflict finally breaks out in Asia?

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My Comment: A part of me says no .... there is zero possibility of a conflict erupting between Asian countries now or in the foreseeable future. Another part of me says that I should not be naive .... wars and conflicts have always existed in Asia, it is just that for the past three decades (not including internal insurrections) Asia has been fortunate enough to not experience a major war. Will this now all change .... probably. As U.S. power declines other nations will try to fill in the vacuum, and as Asian countries try to assert their sovereignty over territories that other countries may claim is their own  .... that is when the risk of escalating tensions resulting in a real shooting war between nations can occur .... with global implications and impact.

Is History Repeating Itself Between Japan And China?

Posturing Over Islands Could Mean China, Japan Showdown -- Paul D. Shinkman, US News and World Report

History could repeat itself between the two powers

China and Japan's aerial posturing on Thursday comes amid turbulence in almost all major Asian powers.

Japan faces an election on Sunday, in which the incumbent will likely lose to an opponent known for hawkish language toward China. A new Chinese government assembled behind closed doors still seeks to assert its regional power employing a traditionally complicated relationship with its own military establishment.

These most recent maneuvers come days after North Korea successfully caught the world's attention with a ballistic missile launch shortly before their neighbors to the south conduct their own elections.

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My Comments: Asia's old differences and conflicts are coming back. Throw in nationalism, economic competition, and political instability .... we now have a perfect cocktail for escalating tensions and even threats of war. No wonder the U.S. does not want to be involved in this disputes.

Update: This is a troubling development .... China asks army to be ready for regional war.

Is The U.S. Ready For An Asia Conflict?

Click on Image to Expand

The Angry Pacific: Why The United States Is Not Ready For Conflict In Asia. -- Michael J. Mazarr, Foreign Policy

When I was in Seoul a few weeks ago, the English-language news program Korea Today broadcast a strangely fascinating story about an "I Love Dokdo" contest at Taegu University. The idea was to see who could come up with the most inspiring tribute to the patch of microislands that has been the focus of a recurring and bitter dispute with Japan. It was strange to see young Koreans sitting on a spare, modernist television set, smiling, laughing and calmly celebrating a nationalist routine. Even odder was the fact that a Mexican exchange student named Emilio, along with a multinational team, won the contest. The goal of their performance, he said on Korea Today, was to "to express our love for Dokdo," in part by showing "the people who have protected Dokdo throughout history" and demonstrating "how beautiful" the islands are.

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My Comment: I have been traveling to Asia since the mid 1980s .... and I have always found them to be nationalistic, as well as being steeped in cultural traditions like "not losing face" to remembering (and not forgiving) historical grievances. The difference now is that there are a few focal points for everyone's attention to be focused on (such as disputes over islands), coupled with a communications and information grid that everyone in Asia is now plugged into. Hence .... when a dispute over an island's ownership occurs .... everyone will know about it within hours.

As to the question .... is the U.S. ready for an Asia conflict? .... the answer is a definite no. Any major conflict in Asia will involve million man armies, heavy and lethal weapon systems, and casualty rates in the millions. I am not even going to discuss the economic fallout except to say that it would be devastating for the rest of the world. While I am sure that the Pentagon/CIA/and US State Department planners have drawn up worst case scenarios .... I am also equally sure that our political leaders do not even want to contemplate the "what if situation" if everything should start to unravel.

China's South China Sea Claims Endangers Stability In Asia

Yongxing Island

The Coming Global Disorder -- Bret Stephens, Commentary

Woody Island is a speck of land in the middle of the South China Sea, not quite a square mile in size. Over the past 80 years it has been occupied by French Indochina, Imperial Japan, the Republic of China, the People’s Republic of China, South Vietnam, and, after a brief war in 1974, the People’s Republic again. Now known as Yongxing to the Chinese (or Phu Lam to the Vietnamese, who still lay claim to it), the island has an airstrip, a harbor, and a few hundred Chinese residents, none native-born, many of whom make their living as fishermen.

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My Comment: For the Chinese .... they see the South China Sea not only as an integral part of China .... but also an essential region for it's long term future. With this mindset .... good luck on trying to make them compromise on principles that they firmly believe in.

The Start Of An Asian Cold War

The Asian Cold War -- Michael Auslin, Foreign Policy

China and Japan's island spat is much more than a battle over a bunch of uninhabited rocks. And it won't be ending anytime soon.

The roiling dispute over a remote set of rocks in the East China Sea, known to the Japanese as the Senkaku Islands and to the Chinese as the Diaoyus, is more than a mere diplomatic spat between two of the world's largest economies. It has stripped away the thin veneer of cooperation between the two Asian giants that most observers assumed would ripen as the two countries became increasingly economically intertwined. It also serves as yet another reminder of just how potent territorial disputes remain in Asia and how little trust there is between countries where the wounds of previous conflicts are still fresh. Although the probability of actual conflict between China and Japan over the Senkakus is negligible, the current crisis is the herald of a new cold war that will persist for years, if not decades. The result will be an Asia that remains fragmented, unable to overcome the baggage of the past, and one in which the specter of accidental conflict is ever present.

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My Comment: For the moment it is a propaganda exercise .... but it is going to "heat up".

Is Asia More 'Worrisome' Than Europe?

Worry About Asia, Not Europe -- Rajan Menon, National Interest

Newspapers are now full of doom and gloom about Europe. A recent opinion piece in The New York Times even argued that “Europe”—the ideal of an integrated, prosperous, peaceable continent devoid of nationalism’s nasty variants—had failed outright.

Europe certainly has problems, among them massive unemployment, crushing debt, rising poverty, and resurgent xenophobic ideologies, parties and movements. But failure? Compared to what exactly?

Surely not the past. For five hundred years before 1945, Europe was the venue for horrific wars. World War I and II alone killed seventy million people. Extremist movements were ubiquitous. Noxious worldviews enabled horrors such as the Holocaust.

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My Comment: Economically .... I am more worried about Europe (and the U.S.) than Asia. But when it comes to national security .... I am more worried about Asia because I am of the belief that the next big war (and I mean a big war between major powers)) will start in Asia. Case in point .... if conventional war should break out on the Korean Peninsula, it would not surprise me if U.S. casualties in that type of war will quickly surpass U.S. casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan combined .... throw in crude nukes .... then casualty rates will skyrocket to unimaginable levels.

A Militarized Japan Will Frighten Everyone

Balancing Forces In The Pacific -- Donald Kirk, Korea Times

BEIJING – The struggle for power and peace in Northeast Asia is an extraordinary balancing act in which those participating in the dance constantly risk tripping and falling over. One day we’re hearing that China is almost willing to fight over claims from the South China Sea to the Yellow Sea, and the next we learn that top U.S. and Chinese officials are grinning amiably while chatting about ``communications and cooperation.”

The love fest seems rather deceiving, however, considering that U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has been talking up plans to build up U.S. naval and airpower, promising half a dozen aircraft carriers will be cruising everywhere in defense of just about everyone. If all these countries were on such good terms, why all the military might?

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My Comment: The last thing that we need to see in the Far East is an arms race between Japan and China. It would raise tensions in the entire region .... and would all but guarantee a return to the old animosities that (supposedly) the Second World War ended. Unfortunately .... North Korea's nuclear ambitions coupled with China's massive defense buildup is not helping the situation.

The Accelerating Realignment In The Far East -- A Commentary

Japan's Disaster May Accelerate Realignment In The East -- Fay Voshell, American Thinker
.

The coastline of Japan is not the only shift that will have been caused by the earthquake and tsunami of March 11.

As significant as the material damage, which appears to be almost incalculable, and as worthy of attention as the economic damage, also titanic, is a potential shift in the international alliances and strategies in the Far East, particularly among China, Japan and the US and its allies.

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My Comment: A sobering view on the rise of China in the Far East, and the decline of Japanese/American influence. Read it all.

Fears Of An Asian Arms Race Abound

Chinese soldiers (Photo from The Telegraph/Reuters)

Asia Driving Global Arms Sales -- The Diplomat

The economic crisis prompted many nations to slow arms buys. But Asian governments such as China and Malaysia keep on buying.

For a while at least, it looked like there was one trade that was immune from the global financial crisis. Governments continued buying foreign weapons in 2008 despite the economic turmoil that summer. But in 2009, the financial downturn finally caught up with some of them. Striving to contain soaring budget deficits resulting from declining tax revenues and rising social welfare expenditures, leaders of several developing nations cancelled or deferred many arms purchases, reducing international weapons purchases and deliveries to their lowest levels in years.

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My Comment: From a historical perspective, Asia has always had wars and conflicts .... but for the past 30 years there has been a period of peace (more or less). But with U.S. power and influence declining in the region, and China ascending .... much to the consternation of its neighbors .... everyone is now focusing on forming strategic alliances coupled with increases in their military budgets to counter this perceived power vacuum.

Crisis like this one also do not help the region.

Asia's New Strategic Partners

April 23: A Chinese Navy nuclear-powered submarine, left, sails during an international fleet to celebrate China's Navy. AP/FOX

From Japan Times:

The recently concluded India-Australia security agreement has come at a time when tectonic power shifts are challenging Asian strategic stability. Asia has come a long way since the emergence of two Koreas, two Chinas, two Vietnams and a partitioned India. It has risen dramatically as the world's main creditor and economic locomotive. The ongoing global power shifts indeed are primarily linked to Asia's phenomenal economic rise.

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My Comment: I belong to the camp that believes that the 21rst century belongs to Asia. Two thirds of humanity live there, the economic and financial trends favor this region, and the political will to be a major player on the international stage is prevalent throughout the region.

I know that there is no guarantee that the region can still implode into strife and conflict, but for the moment the major powers in the region are looking to develop strategic alliances and cooperation to insure that no "worse case scenarios" will arise.

This commentary from the Japan Times is well thought of, and it looks at the region through the eyes of Australia. If you are an Australian .... I guess this is a must read for you.

Asia's Military Balance At A Tipping Point -- A Commentary

From the Wall Street Journal:

America's deterrent is shrinking in the region.

Officials from Japan and the United States meet tomorrow in Tokyo to discuss the future of the alliance under the Security Consultative Committee. The talks come at a crucial time, when the military balance of power in Asia is in flux. China's growing military capabilities and North Korea's missile and nuclear provocations should top the list of discussion topics at the SCC.

China is challenging access to the global commons through a broad, consciously directed array of military developments. China's military has moved beyond its focus on Taiwan and now possesses antisatellite weapons, advanced land attack ballistic missiles, new classes of submarines and surface ships and the emerging ballistic missile capability to hit ships at sea at least 1,000 miles from China's coasts.

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My Comment: This Wall Street Journal opinion piece was published last week, but it is still appropriate today.

Asia .... throughout its history .... possessed most of mankind's population, and was always a consistent force in economic, social, military, and scientific developments. It has also endured numerous wars and conflicts that not only undermined much of its progress, but was also the factor that destroyed much of the progress made by its previous generations.

Destroy .... rebuild. Destroy .... rebuild. This has always been the story of Asia and its billions of people.

The past 30 years has changed everything. When I visited Asia in the mid 1980s, I saw a people who rode bicycles and could only dream of being able to afford to buy an orange. Today .... they are building rockets to go into space and beyond, and are now lending us the money to buy an orange.

During this entire time, the American military presence was always there. I saw it in South Korea, the Philippines (Subic Bay), it was always present in Japan .... and even in China .... everyone knew that the Americans were only beyond the horizon.

Today is a different world. The Americans are leaving, and with them the delicate military balance that has kept Asia at peace since the 1980s. I always said to my Asia hosts that while Asia has a culture and history that is unmatched by anyone, its political/legal culture and institutions pale to what the U.S. has .... and this is their weakness.

When I came back from Asia last year, I was distressed to see the old animosities coming back. All the countries are now rebuilding their arm forces, and even Japan is now seriously moving forward with some even considering the development of nuclear weapons.

History has a bad habit of always repeating itself .... I can only hope that this will not be Asia's legacy.

Coming To Asia's Defense -- A Commentary

China has increased its military budget in the past year by nearly 18 per cent.
(Reuters: stringer Shanghai)

From The Wall Street Journal:

A weaker U.S. military will undermine stability in the region.

Former President George W. Bush's critics liked to say that during his term America was "getting its derriere kicked" by China. By this the critics presumably meant that the war in Iraq was a big distraction and that the United States was not attending enough Asian multilateral conferences and showing off its "soft power."

While the case was never overwhelming, it contained a kernel of truth. Beijing did gain regional influence at Washington's expense under former President Bush's watch. Now President Barack Obama is doing his predecessor one better: By imposing draconian defense cuts, heavily targeted on high-technology weapons systems and "power-projection" platforms essential to preserving U.S. military superiority in the Pacific, America may not have much of a derriere left in Asia at all.

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