Asia's Pacific Navies Expect 800 New Ships By 2031

Map of Asia from The Economist

Asia's Naval Procurement Sees Major Growth -- Defense News

SINGAPORE — Asia-Pacific nations are modernizing their surface and underwater naval capabilities by buying stealthy warships, attack submarines, patrol vessels, sensors, radars, missiles and unmanned systems.

That much was clear at last week’s biennial International Maritime Defence Exhibition and Conference (IMDEX) in Singapore.

The Asia-Pacific makes up roughly 25 percent of the global projected new ship market, said Bob Nugent, vice president of advisory services at AMI International, a US naval analysis firm. “AMI projects that navies within the Asia-Pacific region will spend a combined [US] $180 billion, almost 800 new ships, surface craft and submarines through 2031,” he said.

This comes out to about 1,000 new construction ships, submarines and 30-meter craft. Submarine and anti-submarine warfare (ASW) segments represent 100 new subs and make up 40 percent, or $62 billion, of the global new build submarine market by volume.

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My Comment: This trend will only accelerate if tensions increase .... a certainty in view of the many border disputes that are now occurring throughout the region. Wow .... talk about an arms race.

Update: In view of Asia's massive naval arms race .... I guess there is some truth to this story that it will only be a matter of time before US naval influence in Asia will just be a shadow of Asia's growing fleets.

Arms Race Is Now In Full Swing In Asia

The New Arms Race In Asia -- Deutsche Welle

Two recent studies have shown that, essentially, an arms race is in full swing in Asia - cause for serious concern, considering the number of simmering conflicts in the region.

The national interests of Asian countries are growing along with their economic clout and affluence, prompting governments in the region to protect their spheres of influence with a wide array of weapons purchases.

Two trends in the international arms trade, in particular, have caught the attention of Western governments. For one, for the first time since the Cold War, the ranking of the world's five largest arms exporters has changed.

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My Comment: My prediction .... this is a global trend that will be the norm for the rest of this century.

Asia's Arms Race (Graphic)

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My Comment: The graph on China is jaw-dropping. In 2 years they will be spending more money on their military than everyone in Asia combined. Their only competitor in Asia will be the U.S., and one must wonder on how long will it take for the Chinese to even surpass the U.S..

There Is Now An Arms Race In Asia

Arms Race Explodes As Neighbours Try To Counter China -- Sydney Morning Herald

PHNOM PENH: An arms-buying spree across south-east Asia will be the elephant in the room when almost 20 world leaders meet in the Cambodian capital, Phnom Penh, on Tuesday.

Defence spending across the region increased 13.5 per cent to $US25.4 billion ($24.5 billion) last year and was expected to rise to $US40 billion by 2016, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said.

Flush with economic success and wary of China's military expansion, countries are acquiring sophisticated sea- and air-based arsenals that include dozens of submarines that can operate in secret.

The institute said Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia had increased defence budgets by 66 per cent to 82 per cent from 2002 to last year.

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My Comment: Everyone has been predicting for years that China's arms buildup will be soon matched by the other Asian countries. If recent developments are an indication, it appears that moment is now.

Is There An Arms Race In Asia?

Graph: Brookings

Not an Arms Race: Parsing Asia's Defense Spending -- Joachim Hofbauer, World Politics Review

Editor's note: This briefing and the CSIS report on which it is based was co-authored by Priscilla Hermann, Sneha Raghavan and Guy Ben-Ari.

The U.S. strategic “pivot” toward Asia announced by President Barack Obama and Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta in January 2012 has reinvigorated research efforts on defense policies in the region. However, a detailed analysis of defense spending by key Asian countries, crucial to understanding their military priorities and capabilities, has been lacking. In an attempt to fill this gap, the Center for Strategic and International Studies recently completed a study on the five largest Asian defense spenders: China, India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Together, these countries account for some 90 percent of defense spending in Asia, and three of them -- China, India and Japan -- were among the top 10 defense spenders in the world in 2011.

Contrary to the trend in the United States and Europe, these five countries, driven by strong economic growth, have steadily increased their defense budgets in the past decade (in constant 2011 U.S. dollars). However, they continue to field personnel-heavy militaries and allocate relatively smaller shares of their budgets to the research, development and acquisition of new military capabilities, suggesting an emphasis on quantity over force quality.

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My Comment: I expect China to soon focus (if they are not already) more on research and development/acquisition of new military capabilities. We are now starting to see it in new air force planes, and the beginning of a carrier capability.

Defense Spending In Asia Has Doubled In The Past Decade

Report: Asian Powers Beef Up Military Spending -- Voice of America

Security analysts say a new study on regional military spending indicates Asia's major powers, led by China, are getting serious about defense matters.

The Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies says defense spending in China, Japan, India, South Korea, and Taiwan has doubled in the past decade, reaching $224 billion last year.

The trend contrasts with that of many Western countries, whose defense budgets have declined in recent years. The CSIS study says Asia defense spending is projected to surpass Europe's military expenditures by the end of 2012.

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More News On Asia's Increasing Military Spending

Asian Powers Increase Military Spending -- Voice of America
Asian powers double defense spending in a decade -- New York Daily News/AP
Defense Spending in Asia Doubles in a Decade -- Arirang
China leads rise in Asia military spending -- South China Post/AFP
Study: China leads rise in Asia military spending -- Radio Australia
China overtakes Japan in Asian military spending -- Japan Daily Press
China tops Japan in Asia military spending -- Japan Today
S. Korea spurs regional arms race headed by China: CSIS -- Korea Times
Report: People, Maintenance Drive Asia Defense Spending Boom -- Defense News

Asia's Missile Race

Photo: Models of a North Korean Scud-B missile and South Korean missiles are displayed at the Korean War Memorial Museum in Seoul. (Lee Jae-won/courtesy Reuters)

More Missiles For Asia -- J. Michael Cole, The Diplomat

South Korea announced on Sunday it had reached a new agreement with the U.S. that allows it to substantially extend the range of its ballistic missiles to 800 km and to greatly increase the payload of shorter-range missiles. The move, which has been described as a means to increase South Korea’s deterrence capability vis-à-vis North Korea, could make other countries within the region, particularly Taiwan, seek a similar lifting of restrictions.

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My Comment: I can understand U.S. concerns .... but .... North Korea and China have been .... and will continue to develop and buildup their missile forces .... regardless of what South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, or the U.S. will do.

Asia’s New Arms Race

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Asia’s New Arms Race: Missiles, Missile Defenses -- Trefor Moss, The Diplomat

The news that China is building a so-called “super-missile” is the latest in a string of developments with the potential to tilt the strategic balance in Asia.

Local media in China have cast doubt on foreign claims that the PLA recently test-fired its DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile – though there is general acceptance that the program exists, and has done so for a long time. Whatever its development status, the long-range ICBM is believed to be road-mobile, and hence difficult to locate and pre-emptively destroy. The missile would be capable of travelling half way round the planet and then striking numerous targets, courtesy of a technology called multiple independent re-entry vehicles (MIRVs) designed to defeat missile defense systems.

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My Comment: Asia .... with it's huge populations and growing economies .... has the potential to have an arms race that could match what the arms race was like during the Cold War. But what makes this situation particularly dangerous are the numerous countries involved .... throw in the proliferation of nuclear weapons, and we could then have a situation that would not only be incredibly destabilizing, but a guarantee for conflict and war. Talk about worst case scenarios.

Is There A Naval Arms Race In The Indian - Pacific Oceans?

In this file photo, amphibious dock landing ship USS Pearl Harbor (LSD 52), left, amphibious assault ship USS Makin Island (LHD 8), and amphibious transport dock ship USS New Orleans (LPD 18) transit the Indian Ocean, May 8. (U.S. Navy photo by Chief Mass Communication Specialist John Lill)

Battle For The Pacific: Naval Arms Race In The China Sea -- Toronto Star

ABOARD THE USS CARL VINSON—U.S. navy Capt. Rick Labranche streaks across the horizon at 1,000 kilometres an hour in his F-18 Hornet strike fighter.

It has been 12 minutes since a catapult slung Labranche’s plane from the flight deck of the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson and Labranche is preparing to drop a pair of 225-kilogram bombs into the Indian Ocean’s two-metre swells.

Labranche checks his radar and scans the blur of blue below. Before he can release his payload on this practice run, he needs to make sure no one is within 16 kilometres.

There’s no telling whose fishing trawlers, research vessels or submarines are plying these waters.

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My Comment: A good summary on what is happening in Asia.

Are We In The Middle Of A Missile Race In Asia?

The Asian Arms Race That Wasn't -- M. Taylor Fravel and Vipin Narang, Foreign Policy

India and Pakistan are firing off missiles left and right. So why aren't the Chinese nervous?

Are we in the middle of a missile race in Asia? On April 25, Pakistan conducted the first test of its Shaheen 1-A intermediate-range ballistic missile. The Pakistan military said that the missile, which is capable of delivering a nuclear warhead against targets in India, successfully hit its intended location in the Indian Ocean.

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My Comment: We may not be in a missile race right now .... but the groundwork is being laid for an arms race in the event that tensions start to escalate in the region.

The Asian Arms Race Is Now Starting

India on Thursday successfully tested a ballistic missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead. AP/ Indian Ministry of Defense

The Asian Arms Race Is Starting to Look Ominous -- Spiegel Online

India added itself to the short list of nuclear-armed countries with ballistic missile capability on Thursday. More importantly, though, the country's successful test marks a new chapter in the developing Asian arms race. German commentators express deep concern on Friday.

Asia's military might appears to be growing by leaps and bounds these days. Just last month, China announced a significant increase to its military spending. Since then, North Korea attempted (and failed) to launch a rocket into space, the United States began a joint military exercise with the Philippines and, on Thursday, South Korea tested a missile whose range includes all of North Korea.

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Update: Asia arms race harms both growing giants -- National Editorial

My Comment: The Asian arms race is just starting .... expect massive defense budget increases and new alliances forming in Asia in the next decade or two.

India's Missile Test Raises Fears Of An Asian Arms Race

India's Missile Test Raising Fears Of Regional Arms Race -- Sydney Morning Herald

INDIA could test-fire its first intercontinental ballistic missile as early as today, a 50-tonne, 20-metre rocket that has the potential to reach all of Asia and large parts of Europe.

The Agni V - named for the Hindu god of fire, but tagged ''the China Killer'' by the more sensationalist sections of the local press - has a range of more than 5000 kilometres and has been slated for a 1000-second test flight some time between today and Friday.

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My Comment: China and now India are two of the world's biggest arms buyers right now .... from where I am standing .... that arms race is already happening.

Is There An Asian Arms Race?

An Asian Arms Race? -- Trefor Moss, The Diplomat

Speculation that Asia is in the throes of an arms race has been about for longer than most defense watchers would care to remember. The speculation is usually idle, with the “arms race” label slapped casually onto news items that are really only about normal defense procurement. Almost all countries invest continually in their armed forces, and improve their capabilities according to their own particular means and requirements. That’s not an arms race.

However, the latest Trends in International Arms Transfers report, released this week by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), may point to the fact that something more than run-of-the-mill defense procurement may be happening in Asia. The SIPRI data tracks only weapon imports and exports, not domestic defense procurement, which accounts for most of China’s military outlay, for example. But the finding that Southeast Asian arms imports increased 185 percent in the period 2007 to 2011 compared with 2002 to 2006 is an eye-opener, however you look at it.

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My Comment: Asia is playing catchup .... with China is leading the way.

Asia Is Now In A New Arms Race

Asia's New Arms Race -- Wall Street Journal

As China grows wealthier and builds up its military, other nations in the region are taking note—and amassing weapons of their own.

At Mazagon Dock near the southern tip of Mumbai, hidden behind high concrete walls, hundreds of Indian workers are putting the finishing touches on the hulls of two 217-foot Scorpène-class attack submarines, the first of six slated to be built over the next few years.

Nearby, workers are adding to India's fleet of stealth frigates and guided-missile destroyers.

One big reason India is beefing up its arsenal: China.

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My Comment: The problem is China's arrogance when making territorial demands on its neighbors. This poisons the atmosphere, and creates the conditions for the inevitable arms race on the region.

Is An Asian Arms Race Inevitable?

China’s Rise = Remilitarizing Japan? -- John Hemmings, The Diplomat

Last year was a bad one for China’s soft power. Will Japan’s response prompt a dangerous spiral of arms spending—and spark conflict?

Saying publicly for the first time what they’ve thought privately for years, Japanese defence planners in December announced a new defence posture that fingered China’s military rise as justification for a new, more proactive approach, including a refocusing of forces from Japan’s north to its southernmost islands.

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My Comment: I cannot see how an Asian arms race cannot be avoided. The Chinese have embarked on a very aggressive military expansion, and their foreign policy is becoming an echo of this growing military strength. China's neighbors are not being quiet about this expansion, and are themselves now embarking on an expansion of their own defense ministries as well as searching for alliances with other countries who are concerned about China's rise. Throw in North Korea, Chinese - Indian tensions on the border, and a decline in U.S. power and influence .... all the ingredients are now in place for a major arms buildup in the region.

Asia's Arms Race Continues

Militarized States -- Newsweek

The rising power of generals within the governments of Asia is fueling the regionwide arms race.

In recent months, the wars of words between china and Japan over disputed islands in the South China Sea have rattled many Asian nations, which would prefer that their giant neighbors focus on peaceful trade. But the verbal battles have obscured another, more disturbing regional trend: Asian countries are gearing up for the possibility of a real fight. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the amount spent on weapons purchases in Southeast Asia nearly doubled between 2005 and 2009, the most recent figures available. The weapons-buying spree will go on--these increases are expected to continue in 2010 and 2011, despite the global economic downturn. Indeed, for many Western and Russian arms manufacturers, Asia has become the promised land.

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My Comment: I am skeptical that Generals are causing Asia's arms race .... but this is another sobering analysis on Asia's arms race .... read it all.

Is A New Cold War Brewing In Asia?

Asia's New Cold War -- Time Magazine

After surviving a harrowing maritime adventure, the fishermen of Gangfu village on China's eastern coast are sometimes presented with a rejuvenating bowl of noodles topped with duck eggs. But on Sept. 25, Gangfu's Zhan Qixiong was lavished with a more extravagant welcome: bouquets of flowers from cheering local leaders, a chartered flight home courtesy of the Chinese government and, of course, the requisite bowl of noodles.

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More News On The Rise Of Tensions In Asia

Japanese PM Naoto Kan warns of China's military rise -- BBC
Tokyo concerned about China’s escalating military and maritime activity -- Asia News
Japan PM concerned over China's maritime expansion -- AP
Japan PM urges China to be 'responsible' -- Sydney Morning Herald/AFP
Act As 'Responsible Member:' Japan PM To China -- RTT News
Japan Seeks Good China Ties -- New York Times/Reuters
China calls for Japan's concerted effort to maintain bilateral ties -- Xinhuanet
China Issues Japan Travel Warning -- Wall Street Journal
China Issues Travel Warning for Japan After Tourists Harrassed in Fukuoka -- Bloomberg
US, Asia unite against Chinese provocation -- The Australian
Obama Edges Closer to Allies in Key Region -- Wall Street Journal
China To U.S.: Keep Out Of South China Sea Dispute -- Huffington Post
Currency war on horizon -- Joong Ang Daily
East Asia Strategic Environment: The Cold War Continues -- Eurasia Review
Asia wary as China asserts territorial ambitions -- ABS-CBN
India & China: The Next Nuclear Arms Race -- Wall Street Journal opinion
China seen as isolating self with tough diplomacy -- TMC.net/AP
Japan poured oil on troubled waters -- Peter Lee, Asia Times
Taking On China -- Paul Krugman, New York Times
A Message for China -- New York Times editorial

My Comment: Everyone is calling for peace, but everyone is preparing for conflict .... especially in the economic and political arena. Expect these differences to increase as the U.S. diminishes its role in this hemisphere and others rush to fill it.

Fears Of An Asian Arms Race Abound

Chinese soldiers (Photo from The Telegraph/Reuters)

Asia Driving Global Arms Sales -- The Diplomat

The economic crisis prompted many nations to slow arms buys. But Asian governments such as China and Malaysia keep on buying.

For a while at least, it looked like there was one trade that was immune from the global financial crisis. Governments continued buying foreign weapons in 2008 despite the economic turmoil that summer. But in 2009, the financial downturn finally caught up with some of them. Striving to contain soaring budget deficits resulting from declining tax revenues and rising social welfare expenditures, leaders of several developing nations cancelled or deferred many arms purchases, reducing international weapons purchases and deliveries to their lowest levels in years.

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My Comment: From a historical perspective, Asia has always had wars and conflicts .... but for the past 30 years there has been a period of peace (more or less). But with U.S. power and influence declining in the region, and China ascending .... much to the consternation of its neighbors .... everyone is now focusing on forming strategic alliances coupled with increases in their military budgets to counter this perceived power vacuum.

Crisis like this one also do not help the region.

The U.S. Is Not the Only Country Concerned About The Growth Of China's Navy

Indian Navy

India Responds to China Navy -- The Diplomat

The breakneck speed at which China has been moving to build up its naval might is causing concern in the international community, particularly in Japan, the United States—and here in India.

Recent decisions by China’s People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLAN) have left China-watchers wondering where the Chinese juggernaut will stop. The latest decision to garner attention has been the apparent decision by the Central Military Commission—China’s highest military planning body—to give the green light to the building of two new nuclear-powered aircraft carriers.

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My Comment: The growth of China's navy has resulted in almost all Asian countries to respond in kind .... so what is my take .... welcome to the new arms race.

US Asia Commander Says N. Korea, China Chief Concerns

Photo: Admiral Timothy Keating

From Voice of America:

The commander of U.S. forces in Asia said North Korea will likely continue to be at the top of his successor's list of concerns after their change-of-command in October, but that other issues, including the continuing growth of China's military, will also need attention. The commander, Admiral Timothy Keating, spoke with VOA Pentagon Correspondent Al Pessin on Thursday.

Admiral Keating has about three months remaining in what will be 2 1/2 years at Pacific Command. But he does not expect the list of concerns to change much during his remaining time.

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My Comment: North Korea will always be on anyone's top list, but what should also be a concern is the arms race that is now shaping up in Asia .... and it has nothing to do with the West. India is now following China's lead in bolstering its military .... as a result countries like Vietnam, Japan, and Australia are responding in kind as well as forming their own alliances and defense agreements. Other countries like Indonesia and Thailand are now examining their defense commitments, and Burma (Myanmar) is now receiving attention because of its "alliances" with North Korea.