What Happens If Kyrgyzstan Says No To U.S. Use Of Manas Air Base

Manas Closing Could Hasten Afghan Exit -- Military.com

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta's visit to Kyrgyzstan on Wednesday could play an even bigger role than last weekend's civilian killings in Afghanistan in determining whether the U.S. withdraws its troops earlier than planned.

President Obama called the deaths of 16 Afghans, allegedly at the hand of an American soldier, "tragic and shocking," but he didn't say it would speed up the pullout. Panetta also said the U.S. remained committed to the scheduled pullout -- however, he didn't eliminate the option of moving more troops out faster.

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My Comment: I concur with this analysis. The closure of Manas Air Base to US planes will put a huge crimp in the supply chain to Afghanistan, forcing the Pentagon and their civilian bosses into doing decisions that they may not feel comfortable in doing .... i.e. making accomodations to Pakistan.

Terror Plot Against The U.S. Embassy And Airbase In Kyrgyzstan Busted By Authorities

Militants 'Planned To Blow Up US Embassy And Airbase' In Kyrgyzstan -- The Telegraph

A group of Islamic militants seized this month in Kyrgyzstan were planning bomb attacks on the US embassy and a crucial US airbase in the country, the head of the security services has claimed.

"The detainees have already confessed to a number of blasts," Keneshbek Duishebayev told journalists in the capital Bishkek. "Also during the questioning they told about plans of their terrorist activity."

He said the eight militants under arrest were part of a newly formed Kyrgyz militant group, calling itself Jamat Kyrgyzstan Jaish al-Mahdi, or "the Army of the Righteous Ruler", which is dedicated to establishing an Islamic caliphate across Central Asia.

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Update: A Terror Plot Against Manas, or Russian Fiction? -- Eurasianet.org

My Comment: Tha Manas Air Base is crucial to NATO operations in Afghanistan. Any disruption would have a significant impact .... a fact that this terrorist cell was probably aware of.

Contract To Supply Fuel For U.S. Planes In Afghanistan Being Criticized

Pentagon, State Blasted Over Kyrgyz Jet-Fuel Deals -- Washington Post

To keep U.S. warplanes flying over Afghanistan, the Pentagon allowed a "secrecy obsessed" business group to supply jet fuel to a U.S. air base in Kyrgyzstan, turning a blind eye to an elaborate fraud involving fuel deliveries from Russia, according to congressional investigators.

In a report due to be released Tuesday, the House subcommittee on national security and foreign affairs hammers the Pentagon as well as State Department diplomats for ignoring red flags raised by jet fuel contracts worth nearly $2 billion for the Manas Transit Center, a U.S. base used for in-flight refueling over Afghanistan.

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More News On The Controversy Of Awarding A Jet-Fuel Contract To Supply U.S. Planes Flying To Afghanistan

Russia Was Misled Over Fuel for U.S. Use, Report Says -- New York Times
Fuel supply to Manas threatened as Kyrgyzstan moves against supplier -- Central Asia Newswire
Kyrgyz Government moves to disrupt jet fuel supplies to key US military base supporting war effort in Afghanistan -- 24 News Agency
Kyrgyzstan: Manas Fuel Supplier Cries Foul -- Eurasianet

My Comment: Central Asia is one of the most corrupt regions in the world. The fact that there is a "problem" with this fuel supply contract should not be a surprise to anyone.

Local resident herds his sheep in front of Manas Air Base near Bishkek Photo: REUTERS

Russia Pushing For Control Of Fuel Supplies To Crucial US airbase -- The Telegraph

Russia is pushing to impose a direct fuel supply deal on the US's airbase in Kyrgyzstan that would allow it to force a rapid closure of the base once it is no longer necessary to support Nato operations in Afghanistan.

The Russian and American governments are discussing a bilateral government deal, under which Russian state-controlled oil companies Rosneft and Gazpromneft would supply kerosene directly to the Manas Transit Centre, a crucial logistics hub for the war in Afghanistan.

"Ultimately it's in the security interests of Russia for the US to be using this base for its operations in Afghanistan, but under a very, very strict mandate," said Ana Jelenkovic, Central Asia analyst at Eurasia Group.

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My Comment: Why is Russia pushing so hard for this contract? Should they be trusted with such a contract? A hundred and one questions .... and no good answers.

Will The New Kyrgyzstan Government Close The U.S. Manas Air Base?

Future Of US Base In Kyrgyzstan In Question -- BBC News

With the revolution against Kyrgyzstan's President Kurmanbek Bakiyev, attention has turned again to the rivalry between the United States and Russia in this remote Central Asian republic - and the future of the US Manas air base there, which is used to reinforce Afghanistan.

There is little doubt that the Russians would ideally prefer not to see the Americans there at all. Kyrgyzstan is a former Soviet republic and some people there still look back to the Soviet Union with nostalgia. I found that out on a visit in 1996, particularly when talking to local Red Army veterans at a retirement home in the run-down capital Bishkek.

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My Comment: I doubt that the new Kyrgyzstan government would be willing to expel the Americans from their country right now. Their priority right now is stability and to obtain international assistance for their country. Closing Manas Air Base right now ... especially since it provides both financial assistance and employment to many in Kyrgyzstan .... would be both fool hardy and reckless.

The U.S. May Not Be Leaving Manas Airforce Base Afterall

Pentagon: Progress In Talks To Keep US Base -- AP

WASHINGTON (AP) — The United States reported progress Tuesday in negotiations to extend its lease of a key Central Asian air base that provides support for military operations in Afghanistan, although an August eviction date looms.

"I think we see reason for hope there, that that can be worked out," Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell said.

Morrell would not describe the negotiations in detail. "We hope we're getting closer," he said, but the Pentagon is also planning alternative resupply routes if talks fall through.

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My Comment: I cannot say that I am surprised. The officials in Kyrgyzstan never had the intention of being married to only one partner .... they are going to play both Russia and the U.S. against each other. Fortunately, the Americans have been positioning themselves to be independent from this form of blackmail.

The Eviction Notice Is Now "Officially" In

A lineup of U.S. Air Force C-17s seen at Manas Air Base in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, Feb. 18. Kyrgyzstan's parliament voted to close the air base that provides key support to military operations in Afghanistan. Azamat Imanaliev / The Associated Press

Kyrgyzstan Issues Eviction Notice For Manas -- Air Force Times

BISHKEK, Kyrgyzstan — The United States was on the verge of being kicked out of its only military outpost in Russia’s historic backyard Friday after Kyrgyzstan gave U.S. forces six months to vacate an air base that serves as a key supply hub for troops in Afghanistan.

The Manas base, created shortly after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks in the United States, at first served as a symbol of what seemed like a budding strategic partnership between the U.S. and Russia.

But as relations between the countries soured in recent years, the base came to represent the renewed competition between the two former Cold War rivals.

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My Comment: I know that attempts to keep the base are still being made .... but the Kyrgyzstan Government has made their intentions very ... very .... very clear.

U.S. To Get The Boot From Central Asia Base?

Image: The United States has an air base (Manas Air Base) at the civilian airport in Bishkek. The New York Times

From The Danger Room:

Stunning news from Moscow: Russian news agencies are reporting that the government of Kyrgyzstan will close Manas Air Base, a vital conduit for U.S. troops in Afghanistan.

RIA-Novosti quotes Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev as saying that his government "has made the decision to end the term for the American base on the territory of Kyrgyzstan." (The RIA-Novosti news report, which followed a press conference in Moscow, has not been translated into English; the Associated Press has a summary.)

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