An Interview With Dr. David Kilcullen On Counterinsurgency

Dr. David Kilcullen on duty with U.S. force in Iraq. A photo from Dr. Kilcullen's Facebook page.

Interview With Dr. David Kilcullen -- Octavian Manea, Small Wars Journal

What would success and victory look like in a counterinsurgency (COIN) operation? What specific role should the Western expeditionary forces should have in this fight?

What would victory look like? It doesn’t look like victory in a conventional military campaign. Insurgency is much like a disease. It has very negative symptoms that affect the whole of society. Victory in COIN is a lot less like military victory and a lot more like recovering from a disease. If you think about the last time you were sick, you may not able to get out of bed, you had to take medicine, you couldn’t do the things you wanted to do, but gradually you got stronger and you were able to do more. You might have continued to take antibiotics for a few weeks until you were completely better, but basically, sooner or later, you forgot that you were sick.

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BBC Interview With David Kilcullen

Hat Tip: Small Wars Journal

An Interview With Counter Insurgency Expert David Kilcullen

IA-Forum Interview: David Kilcullen -- International Affairs Forum

International Affairs Forum: You define counterinsurgency (COIN) theory as “a competition with the insurgent for the right and the ability to win the hearts, minds and acquiescence of the population. Injudicious use of firepower creates blood feuds, homeless people and societal disruption that fuels the insurgency. For your side to win, the people must respect you, accept that your actions benefit them, and trust your ability to deliver on promises, particularly regarding their security. In this battlefield popular perceptions and rumor are more influential than the facts and more powerful than a hundred tanks.” What are the battlefield perceptions and rumors in Afghanistan today?

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Newsweek Looks At David Kilcullen And His Views On Counter Insurgency

Counterinsurgency -- Newsweek

No cable-television talking heads here. The armchair chicken hawks have been scattered. This is one of the sharpest and most incisive minds on modern warfare getting deep in the weeds on what it takes to win today’s wars. And more important, how to do it.

What’s the Big Deal?

For the better part of the 20th century, the U.S. built a military aimed at fighting off Hitler’s armies or staring down the nuclear-armed Soviet Union. But for at least the past few decades, those state-vs.-state wars have become less and less frequent. Today, in Iraq and Afghanistan (as well as in Somalia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Colombia, and several other conflict-ridden areas around the world), the name of the game is counterinsurgency: beating down enemies of the state while winning the hearts and minds of the everyday people. It’s a challenge of the highest order, and for at least the foreseeable future, it’s the kind of war the U.S. is going to be fighting.

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My Comment: A surprisingly good read from Newsweek.

A Look At Counterinsurgency Expert David Kilcullen

David Kilcullen

Aussie With His Mind On Hostile Matters -- NZHerald

It's no secret that David Kilcullen is one of the world's top counterinsurgency experts.

But the former Australian Army officer's fascination with countering what used to be called "irregular warfare" goes back a long way.

Kilcullen, a senior adviser to General David Petraeus during the successful 2007 surge in Iraq, was 10 when his father, a medieval scholar, gave him a copy of Robert Graves' 1929 autobiography Goodbye To All That.

It was, he says, meant to convey to him the harsh realities of World War I.

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More News On David Kilcullen

Book Review: Counterinsurgency By David Kilcullen -- Basil And Spice
Kilcullen Joins the ‘To Hell with Karzai’ Faction? -- Cato@Liberty
Petraeus advisor predicts changes in Afghan strategy -- L.A. Times

Hat Tip: Small Wars Journal

My Comment: I have always been a fan of David Kilcullen. Like Bing West, David Kilcullen has always understood the importance of culture and tribal organizations .... and on how they can be used and manipulated to impact and influence a counter insurgency campaign.

If you are looking for a book to read this summer, his should be on the top of your list.

A Conversation With David Kilcullen

The Conversation: Are We Leaving Afghanistan Too Soon? -- ABC News

Author David Kilcullen on Troop Withdrawal, the Influence of Wikileaks and Corruption in Afghanistan

On Dec. 1, 2009 President Obama pledged to withdraw all U.S. troops from Afghanistan by July 2011 -- nearly 10 years after the war began. Now, six months later, some in the military community are beginning to ask if that date was picked prematurely. The administration has stood by the date, and their efforts in Afghanistan, even as June becomes one of the deadliest months for U.S. causalities since the war began.

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My Comment: Kilcullen rarely disappoints, making this ABC video a must see.

Kilculen At Last Year's Google’s Visiting Author Program.

WNU Editor: I miss this video last year. I have always enjoyed listening to him and he does not disappoint in this video.

Hat Tip: Permissible Arms

David Kilcullen Comments On The Afghan Debate For A Military Surge

David Kilcullen (left) asks a question of Lt. Col. Michael Infanti. (army.mil)
(Photo from The Washington Independent)

Barack Obama 'Risks Suez-Like Disaster' In Afghanistan, Says Key Adviser -- The Guardian

Leading authority on counter-insurgency fears US is heading for 'irresponsible' fudge on extra troops

A key adviser to Nato forces warned today that Barack Obama risks a Suez-style debacle in Afghanistan if he fails to deploy enough extra troops and opts instead for a messy compromise.

David Kilcullen, one of the world's leading authorities on counter-insurgency and an adviser to the British government as well as the US state department, said Obama's delay in reaching a decision over extra troops had been "messy". He said it not only worried US allies but created uncertainty the Taliban could exploit.

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Update: Losing Kilcullen -- DoD Buzz

My Comment: When David Kilcullen talks .... people listen.

David Kilcullen: US Has 2 More Tough Years In Afghanistan (Within A 10 Year Commitment)

David Kilcullen (Photo from Foreign Policy Blog)

From Breitbart/AP:

WASHINGTON (AP) - An incoming adviser to the top U.S. general in Afghanistan predicted Thursday that the United States will see about two more years of heavy fighting and then either hand off to a much improved Afghan fighting force or "lose and go home."

David Kilcullen, a counterinsurgency expert who will assume a role as a senior adviser to Gen. Stanley McChrystal, has been highly critical of the war's management to date. He outlined a "best-case scenario" for a decade of further U.S. and NATO involvement in Afghanistan during an appearance at the U.S. Institute of Peace.

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My Comment: David Kilcullen is right .... Afghanistan is a 10 year (plus) involvement. It will also (in my opinion) probably surpass the cost of the Iraq War in both lives and monies spent.

This is very depressing news, and I am sure that President Obama must also now know that continuing the Afghanistan War for the next 10 years will probably cost 2,000+ more American lives, and will involve an expenditure that will run into the hundreds of billions of dollars .... and this may even be the positive point of view.

My uncle served as a senior commander in the Soviet Union's occupation and warfare in Afghanistan from 1986-1988 ..... his present assessment of U.S. and NATO prospects are very bleak. The Soviet Army went "Roman" on the Afghan people, slaughtering hundreds of thousands and displacing millions. They pulled all the stops to win .... and they lost.

His explanation is simple .... the Pashtuns (who make up the majority of the country) hate foreighners .... and this is a sentiment that will never change. Even if the U.S. and NATO are there with the best of intentions .... it is not going to change a way of life and perception that has existed for centuries. They will take your aid and money .... but they will betray you in the end.

Faced with this prospect .... I had mentioned in previous posts that the U.S. will start to lay the groundwork to leave by 2011. It appears that David Kilcullen is also hinting that this may be the eventual outcome for the U.S. in two years.

Pakistan Could Collapse Within Six Months: Report

David Kilcullen (Photo from Charlie Rose)

From Press Trust India:

New York, Apr 6 (PTI) Pakistan could collapse within six months in the face of snowballing insurgency, according to a top expert on guerrilla warfare. Such dire prediction was given by David Kilcullen, a former adviser to top US military commander General David H Petraeus.

Petraeus also echoed the same thought when he told a Congressional testimony last week that insurgency was one which could "take down" Pakistan, which is home to nuclear arms and al Qaeda.

Kilcullen's comments come as Pakistan is witnessing an unprecedented upswing in terrorists strikes and now some analysts in Pakistan and Washington are putting forward apocalyptic timetables for the country.

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My Comment: For the past year this blog has been voicing the observations of David Kilcullen, The Long War Journal, Michael Totten, the Captain's Journal ... and numerous others on what is happening in Pakistan. Their worst fears are now becoming reality in that poor excuse of a country.

A Conversation With David Kilcullen

David Kilcullen (left) asks a question of Lt. Col. Michael Infanti.
(Army.mil)/(Photo from Washington Independent)

From The Washington Post:

Why is an Aussie anthropologist coaching American generals on how to win wars? David Kilcullen, an Australian army reservist and top adviser to Gen. David H. Petraeus during the troop surge in Iraq, has spent years studying insurgencies in countries from Indonesia to Afghanistan, distinguishing hard-core terrorists from "accidental guerrillas" -- and his theories are revolutionizing military thinking throughout the West. Kilcullen spoke with Outlook's Carlos Lozada on why Pakistan is poised for collapse, whether catching Osama bin Laden is really a good idea and how the Enlightenment and Lawrence of Arabia helped Washington shift course in Iraq. Excerpts:

What is the real central front in the war on terror?

Pakistan. Hands down. No doubt.

Why?

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More News On David Kilcullen's Remarks

Kilcullen speaks -- Foreign Policy
Australian anthropologist-soldier now drives US policy on war on terror -- Times Of India
Pakistan may collapse in six months: US General -- The New Nation
CENTCOM Advisor gives Pakistan six months before it collapses -- Thaindian
The real central front in terror -- AJC
Afghanistan: New tactics, same strategy? -- BBC