Russia's Top General: Cutting Nuclear Forces Not Possible With Missile Defense

Army General Valery Gerasimov. © RIA Novosti. Vitaliy Belousov

Missile Defense Obstructs Nuclear Forces Cuts - General -- RIA Novosti

MOSCOW, May 23 (RIA Novosti) – The United States’ insistence on pursuing a missile defense system in Europe is standing in the way of further cuts to Russia’s nuclear deterrent forces, Russia’s top general said on Thursday at an international security conference in Moscow.

“Russia will cut its strategic attack force only when it is certain that the United States’ development of global missile defense will not undermine its nuclear deterrent potential,” Chief of the General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov said at the start of the two-day Military and Political Aspects of European Security conference.

The event brings together senior defense officials from Russia, the EU, the United States and Canada, as well as independent military and political experts.

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My Comment: The Russians are assuming the worse .... even though the US missile defense system is still plagued by technical doubts.

U.S. - Russia Nuclear Talks?

Biden And Donilon Preparing For New Nuclear Discussions With Russia -- Josh Rogin, The Cable/Foreign Policy

Vice President Joe Biden will meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov this weekend in Munich and National Security Advisor Tom Donilon will travel to Moscow next month to try to kick-start a new round of U.S.-Russia nuclear reduction negotiations, The Cable has learned.

It was four years ago at the Munich Security Conference that Biden first spoke about the Obama administration's desire to "reset" U.S.-Russian relations after years of deterioration during the George W. Bush administration. Now, at the beginning of Obama's second term, Biden and Donilon are leading the charge to reinvigorate that reset, following a series of setbacks in the U.S.-Russia relationship that has included President Vladimir Putin accusing the United States of meddling in Russian politics, anger over a new U.S. law to sanction Russian human rights violators, and a new Russian ban on Americans adopting Russian orphans.

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My Comment: Russia is right now spending the money to modernize their nuclear forces .... I do not see them changing this policy to accommodate U.S. wishes. As for the U.S. .... U.S. nuclear forces need to be modernize, but with trillion dollar deficits I do not see that happening .... and more to the point .... I see an administration that does not want to spend that king of money and are now looking for a convenient way out. My prediction .... this White House will make an announcement this year that the U.S. will unilaterally cut back some of it's nuclear forces as well as limiting missile defense to entice the Russians to come back to the table. The Russians .... I predict .... will show up but offer nothing.

President Obama: U.S. Must Maintain Arms-Reduction Efforts With Russia

President Barack Obama thanks U.S. Sen. Dick Lugar of Indiana, center right, and former U.S. Sen. Sam Nunn of Georgia, center, for their work to help denuclearize countries after the fall of the Soviet Union at National Defense University in Washington, D.C., Dec. 3, 2012. DOD photo by Erin Kirk-Cuomo

Obama Seeks Renewal Of Nuclear Arms Control Deal With Russia -- L.A. Times

He offers to renegotiate terms of the Nunn-Lugar program that helped rid the world of more than 7,500 nuclear warheads and related weaponry.

WASHINGTON — Hoping to salvage his arms control legacy, President Obama called Monday for the renewal of a major post-Cold War agreement between the United States and Russia to secure and dismantle nuclear weapons left over from the former Soviet Union.

In an appeal aimed at Moscow, Obama offered to renegotiate terms of the 20-year-old threat-reduction initiative known for its chief sponsors, former Sen. Sam Nunn and outgoing Sen. Richard G. Lugar, and use it as a template for future U.S. cooperation with Russia.

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More News On President Obama's Call To Renegotiate A Nuclear Weapons Treaty With Russia

President Obama Pushes for Nonproliferation -- White House
U.S. Must Maintain Arms-Reduction Effort With Russia -- Bloomberg
Obama urges Russia to work with U.S. to extend arms pact -- Reuters
Obama calls on Russia to update nuclear deal -- AFP
Obama Ready To Work With Moscow To 'Update' Nuclear Deal -- Radio Free Europe
Obama Calls on Russia to Renew Weapons Pact -- New York Times
Obama praises work on nuclear stockpiles but urges vigilance -- AP

My Comment: From what I am reading in Russia .... they have no desire to change the treaty.

Is Putin Showing Some Openness To New Missile Reductions

Russian President Vladimir Putin. © RIA Novosti. Alexei Nikolskiy

Putin Shows Some Openness To New Missile Reductions -- New York Times

MOSCOW — President Vladimir V. Putin said Friday that Russia would be willing to negotiate new reductions in nuclear arms with the United States but that Washington must first change its plans for a missile defense system in Europe strongly opposed by the Kremlin.

Mr. Putin’s comments suggested, in theory, a new openness by Russia to going beyond the New Start treaty, which was signed by his predecessor, Dmitry A. Medvedev, and President Obama in April 2010 and ratified by the United States Senate later that year.

While the New Start treaty requires Russia and the United States to reduce their arsenals to 1,550 strategic warheads and 700 launchers within seven years, the countries have discussed a follow-up agreement that would cut tactical warheads and stored strategic weapons that are not covered by the existing treaty.

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My Comment: Putin is only stating what has been stated before .... no nuclear reductions unless the U.S. missile defense program is curtailed. This is no new "openness" from Putin.

State Department Arms Negotiator: Strategic Arms Agreement With Russia Possible Despite Moscow’s Opposition

Arms Control Mania -- Washington Free Beacon

State arms official: Further strategic agreement with Russia possible despite Moscow’s opposition.

OMAHA—A senior State Department arms negotiator said Thursday that Russian opposition to holding a new round of arms control talks does not mean a second strategic arms pact is out of reach.

Rose Gottemoeller, acting undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, also said that a State Department advisory board will report soon on whether U.S. nuclear forces can be cut very sharply and eventually be eliminated.

Gottemoeller said her predecessor, Ellen Tauscher, asked the State Department International Security Advisory Board to see how the United States could shift from “mutually assured destruction to mutually assured stability.”

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My Comment: Sometimes I wonder if the U.S. government reads or watches what is being said in Russia on this issue .... and (in case anyone wants to know) what has been said in Moscow is very clear .... Russia has no interest in pursuing another nuclear arms agreement with the U.S. as long as America's missile defense program exists. Of course .... the Kremlin can turn around and embarrass themselves by saying that they will now talk with the U.S. .... but I doubt it. As to acting undersecretary of state for arms control Rose Gottemoeller .... she is dreaming if she thinks that Russia will go to the table and have the discussion that she is clearly hoping that they will.

Can U.S., Russia Reduce Their Nuclear Arsenals? (Video)

President Obama Tells Russian President Medvedev That He Needs More Time On Missile Defense

President Obama Asks Medvedev For ‘Space’ On Missile Defense — ‘After My Election I Have More Flexibility’ -- ABC news

SEOUL, South Korea — At the tail end of his 90 minute meeting with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev Monday, President Obama said that he would have “more flexibility” to deal with controversial issues such as missile defense, but incoming Russian President Vladimir Putin needs to give him “space.”

The exchange was picked up by microphones ashttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif reporters were let into the room for remarks by the two leaders.

The exchange:

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More News On President Obama Asking Russian President Medvedev For More Time On Missile Defense

Obama assures Medvedev more flexibility after election -- Reuters
Obama Tells Medvedev Election Means Missile Defense Can Wait -- Bloomberg Businessweek
Microphone Picks Up Obama’s Private Exchange With Medvedev -- The Lede/New York Times
Obama asks Russia to cut him slack until reelection -- Christian Science Monitor
Obama asks Russia for 'space' on missile defence -- AFP
Obama tells Medvedev solution on missile defense is unlikely before elections -- Washington Post
Hot mic: Obama begs Russians for ‘space’ on missile defense talks -- Washington Times
Obama to Medvedev: No Missile Deal Before Election -- Wall Street Journal
Barack Obama microphone gaffe: 'I'll have more flexibility after election' -- The Telegraph

My Comment: Oh oh ....

I can see those who support the cutting back of nuclear weapons and missile defense heaving a sigh of relief that President Obama is still committed to this cause .... and I can see the other side becoming more concerned and worried that President Obama will commit himself to further cutbacks.

Yup .... this is going to be an interesting election year.

On a side note, I read somewhere that President Medvedev understood Russian .... but this is the first time that I have heard him speak it. In regards to Putin ... he can also speak English, and I heard him once when he was giving Russia's presentation to the Olympic Committee for the winter Olympics a few years back.

US Dangles Secret Data For Russia Missile Shield OK

EXCLUSIVE - US Dangles Secret Data For Russia Missile Shield OK -- Reuters

(Reuters) - The Obama administration is leaving open the possibility of giving Moscow certain secret data on U.S. interceptor missiles due to help protect Europe from any Iranian missile strike.

A deal is being sought by Washington that could include classified data exchange because it is in the U.S. interest to enlist Russia and its radar stations in the missile-defense effort, a Pentagon spokeswoman said Tuesday in written replies to Reuters.

No decision has been made yet on whether the United States would offer data about the interceptors' "velocity at burnout," or VBO, said Air Force Lieutenant Colonel April Cunningham, the spokeswoman, but it is not being ruled out.

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My Comment: This "dangling" is not working.

Pursuing An American - Russian Nuclear Tactical Arms Agreement

NATO Powers Confer On Potential Tactical Nuke Curbs -- Global Security Newswire

The Obama administration is "intensively" pursuing potential tactical nuclear weapons reductions with Russia and conferring on the matter with other NATO member states, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Rose Gottemoeller said on Wednesday (see GSN, April 14).

Upon inking a new strategic nuclear arms control treaty with Russia last year, President Obama said "the United States intends to pursue with Russia additional and broader reductions in our strategic and nonstrategic nuclear weapons, including nondeployed nuclear weapons,” Gottemoeller noted in an address at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis, Md.

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More News On Attempts To Reach An American - Russian Tactical Arms Agreement

U.S. to seek agreement with Russia on tactical nuclear weapons reduction -- RIA Novosti
U.S., Russia reducing nuclear stockpiles -- UPI
France is biggest obstacle to ridding Europe of tactical nuclear weapons - report -- The Guardian
"Big Challenges" in U.S.-Russian Tactical Nuke Talks, Samore Says -- Global Security Newswire
Time for Plan B -- New York Times editorial

Will U.S. - Russia Tactical Nuke Talks Get Anywhere

Chart showing nuclear warheads deployed by Russia and US in 2009. Russia said Monday it was premature to set a date for a new round of nuclear disarmament talks on short-range missiles amid pressure from the United States for a quick reduction. France24

"Big Challenges" in U.S.-Russian Tactical Nuke Talks, Samore Says -- Global Security Newswire

Significant issues are likely to arise in potential talks on drawing down the U.S. and Russian arsenals of tactical nuclear weapons, White House coordinator for arms control and nonproliferation Gary Samore told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (see GSN, March 8).

Following the entry into force of the bilateral New START strategic nuclear arms control pact, the Obama administration has said it would like to begin talks by next February on cutbacks to short-range nuclear arms (see related GSN story, today). The United States is believed to have roughly 200 such weapons deployed at military bases in several European countries, while Russia reportedly holds about 2,000 tactical nuclear systems within its borders.

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My Comment: There is no reason for Russia to agree to anything as long as the balance favors them. A point that everyone realizes .... with the exception of U.S. nuclear negotiators and their political masters in the White House.

If the U.S. wants reductions .... the strategy should be to make a determination to expand America's tactical nuclear stockpile, and then approach the Russians for an agreement. If they decide not to deal, expand the arsenal and then .... do not be surprised .... if serious talks will be forwarded by the Russians.

A New Agreement On Nuclear Warheads Between The U.S. And Russia?

Russia is expected to issue a stern message to Mr Biden in private Photo: REUTERS

Biden Seeks to Build on New START During Russia Trip -- Global Security Newswire

U.S. Vice President Joesph Biden was set to travel to Russia on Tuesday in a bid to further advance a two-year strengthening in bilateral relations that culminated most recently in a strategic nuclear arms control treaty's entry into force, Reuters reported (see GSN, Feb. 17).

Biden is expected to hold discussions with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Wednesday and to meet with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin the following day. Observers expect less chance for major strides in U.S.-Russian collaboration as attention in each nation shifts to domestic politics ahead of their 2012 general elections.

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My Comment: It is not going to happen .... instead .... the Russians are going to point out their displeasure on this issue.

Russia Not Interested To Discuss With U.S. Officials On Reducing Tactical Nuclear Weapon Stockpiles

"Until we see the way commitments undertaken within its framework are fulfilled and to what extent the sides are acting in line with the treaty's letter and spirit, this issue will be premature for us". RIA Novosti, Vladimir Fedorenko

Russia Says Too Early To Talk Tactical Nuclear Weapons With United States -- RIA Novosti

It is too early to discuss limiting tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) with the United States, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said.

When ratifying the New START arms deal with Russia in December, the United States Senate adopted a resolution obligating the government to start bilateral talks on cutting the TNW stockpiles - landmines, artillery shells and short-range missiles. Washington says Moscow has a larger number of these systems.

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My Comment: This should not surprise anyone .... Russia has a huge stockpile in tactical nuclear weapons .... why should they cut it down when there is very little for them to do so..

Russia Has No Interest In Further Nuclear Cutbacks

Photo: A Russian strategic nuclear missile is moved for inspection by President Medvedev at the Teikovo Strategic Missile base in Russia's Ivanovo region in May 2008. Tehran Times

Russia Puts Breaks On Further Nuclear Cutbacks -- Space Daily/AFP

The cheer over Russia's approval of a new nuclear disarmament treaty is short-lived as it masks Moscow's reluctance to ensure further cuts, threatening US President Barack Obama's vision of a nuclear-free world.

Russia is going through the final motions of ratifying a new START treaty that reduces old nuclear warhead ceilings by 30 percent and limits each side to 700 deployed long-range missiles and heavy bombers.

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Update #1: Russians Aren’t So Hot to Cut Small Nukes -- The Danger Room
Update #2: What Next? -- Arms Control Wonk

My Comment: No surprise here. Russia enjoys a numerical advantage in tactical nuclear warheads, and they have made it very clear (for a long time) that they have no interest in cutting this stockpile.

Russia Claims U.S. Violating START Terms

© Collage: The Voice of Russia

Russia Outlines U.S. Violations of Arms Treaties -- Global Security Newswire

The United States ran afoul of international arms control treaties on multiple occasions over a time span covering roughly the past 10 years, Russia asserted in a report issued Saturday (see GSN, Aug. 5).

The 10-page Russian Foreign Ministry document appeared to be a response to U.S. critics of Moscow's adherence to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which expired in December, the New York Times reported. Republican lawmakers questioned Russia's compliance with the 1991 pact in considering whether to support ratification of the agreement's successor, signed in April by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and U.S. President Barack Obama.

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More News On Russian Claims That The U.S. Has Violated Some START Provisions

Russia Accuses U.S. of Violating Old Arms Pacts -- New York Times
Russia Accuses United States of Loose Arms Control -- St. Petersburg Times
Russia Blasts US Over Violations -- AHN
Russia: U.S. violating START terms -- UPI
Russia 'Dissatisfied' With US Weapons Actions -- Voice of America
Russia accuses US of arms control breaches -- AP
Russia accuses U.S. in loose weapon control -- Reuters
U.S. breaches nonproliferation obligations, Russia says -- Xinhuanet
Russia accuses US of flouting non-proliferation treaty -- Sigy/RIA Novosti
Moscow slams Washington for WMD performance -- Voice of Russia
Russia - The Facts of Violation by the United States of its Obligations in the Sphere of Nonproliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction and Arms Control -- ISRIA

Russia Accuses US Of Arms Control Violations

Russia Accuses US Of Arms Control Breaches -- Washington Post/AP

MOSCOW -- Russia's Foreign Ministry has accused the United States of violating its obligations under bilateral nuclear arms reduction treaties and failing to properly safeguard radioactive materials.

The Foreign Ministry claimed in Saturday's statement that the U.S. has breached its duties under the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty.

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More News On Russian Accusations Of U.S. Arms Control Violations

Russia 'Dissatisfied' With US Weapons Actions -- Voice of America
Russia accuses US of arms control breaches -- AP
Russia accuses U.S. in loose weapon control -- Reuters
U.S. breaches nonproliferation obligations, Russia says -- Xinhuanet
Russia accuses US of flouting non-proliferation treaty -- Sigy/RIA Novosti
Moscow slams Washington for WMD performance -- Voice of Russia

My Comment: I call this the "coffee pot calling the tea kettle black".

New U.S. - Russia Nuclear Agreement Facing Ratification Problems In The U.S. Senate

Key Senator Expects Tough Fight On Arms Control Deal -- Global Security Newswire

Friction between Democratic and Republican senators is likely to complicate efforts to ratify a new U.S.-Russian nuclear arms control treaty, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry (D-Mass.) told the Boston Globe in remarks published today (see GSN, April 28).

Signed earlier this month by U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, the pact would obligate the two former Cold War adversaries to both lower their respective strategic arsenals to 1,550 fielded warheads and to limit their deployed nuclear delivery vehicles -- missiles, submarines and bombers -- to 700, with another 100 permitted in reserve. Under a 2002 pact, Moscow and Washington had until 2012 to reduce their deployed strategic stockpiles to a maximum of 2,200 weapons each.

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My Comment: Traditionally .... when important treaties were being negotiated and agreed upon between the U.S. and other countries .... the U.S. Senate was involved by being briefed and having their own opinions considered. However .... under this administration .... a different tack was followed in which many in the Senate are of the opinion (particularly on the Republican side) that they were deliberately left out.

There are always political consequences when a government pursues such an independent course, and the White House is going to experience this when they find that they have problems in ratifying the treaty. With a majority of Americans opposing the treaty, this is going to be an uphill battle .... especially in an election year.

What President Obama Promised The Russians On Missile Defense

U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev pose during a meeting in Prague on nuclear disarmament on April 8, 2010. Astakhov Dmitry / ITAR-TASS Photo / Corbis

From Time Magazine:

President Obama has presented the new arms control treaty he signed in Prague on April 8 as a "historic accomplishment" in both nuclear security and U.S. relations with Russia. But there are disturbing signs that the Obama Administration is overselling its progress with Russia, raising unrealistic hopes that Moscow would genuinely help in addressing the danger from Iran, the most likely nuclear threat to America and its allies.

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My Comment: Dimitri Simes accurately summarizes what the Russian press and pundit class have been saying since the signing of the treaty. Unlike the U.S. press corp which has been publishing glowing reviews and regurgitating what the House House has been telling them, the simple fact is that Russia has little if any interest to accommodate U.S. interests .... whether in Iran, Latin America, or any where else.

As to missile defense .... the Russian position and perception of the treaty is very clear .... which (according to a senior Russian official) is the following ....

"I can't quote you unequivocal language from President Obama or Secretary Clinton in conversations with us that there would be no strategic missile defenses in Europe, but everything that was said to us amounts to this."

Is this a victory for the Obama administration .... hardly.

Russian President Medvedev Warns Against U.S. Missile Defense

Medvedev Exclusive: New START Treaty vs. Missile Defense -- ABC News

If Missile Defense Program Is a Threat, Medvedev Would 'Jeopardize' Treaty.

Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said in an exclusive interview with "Good Morning America" that he would consider withdrawing from the nuclear disarmament treaty he and President Obama signed last week, should the U.S. missile defense program in Europe create an "imbalance."

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My Comment: Much of the Russian media, his political opponents, and many political pundits .... they have all been critical on Medevedev's decision to sign a new START agreement with President Obama last week. This ABC interview is Medvedev's way of stating that he is aware of their concerns, and to placate them he is publicly making a commitment that if he feels Russia is endangered by missile defense, he will then leave the treaty. What better way to throw the gauntlet than on an American news program.

U.S. - Russia Agree To Dispose Of Weapons Plutonium

U.S., Russia Reach Deal On Disposing Of Plutonium From Nuclear Weapons -- Washington Post

The U.S. and Russian governments have reached a breakthrough in a long-stalled agreement to dispose of huge amounts of their plutonium from nuclear weapons, officials said Thursday.

The new protocol will be signed Monday, shortly before President Obama opens a summit in Washington on keeping nuclear material out of the hands of terrorists, officials said. More than 40 heads of state are expected at the summit.

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More News On U.S. - Russian Agreement To Dispose Plutonium

Russia, U.S. to Sign Pact on Converting Weapons Plutonium -- Global Security Newswire
U.S., Russia reach plutonium disposal deal -- UPI
Disposal of Plutonium From U.S.-Russian Disarmament Is Likely to Take Decades -- New York Times
Cleaning Up Nuclear Waste -- And Lining Shareholders' Pockets -- Street Authority

My Comment: This is going to take more than just a few decades and a few billions of dollars. But I guess they have to start somewhere.

So They Sign A New START Agreement. What Is Next?

START Or Ending? Why More Nuclear Weapons Cuts Will Be Hard. -- Christian Science Monitor

The new START treaty, signed today, is a step toward a world free of nuclear weapons, President Obama said. But China's ambitions and Russia's worries could make future cuts difficult.

As he signed a new treaty with Russia Thursday that will reduce the nuclear weapons in US and Russian arsenals by one-third, President Obama called the milestone “one step on a longer journey” that “will set the stage for further cuts.”

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More News on Today;s Sighing Of A New START Agreement

Nuclear treaty would cut only long-range arms -- AP
Obama hails nuclear treaty as new era in relations with Russia -- The Guardian
Obama Hails Treaty as Mend to Russia Relationship -- CBS News
Nuclear Summit Must Convince Nations of Terror Threat, Experts Say -- Global Security Newswire
Obama, Medvedev need legislative approval for START -- USA Today
Unclear As Of Now if Senate Will Have Votes to Ratify New Disarmament Treaty -- ABC News
False START in the Senate? -- National Review
Lavrov Stakes Out Treaty Limits -- Moscow Times
New Nuke Treaty: Trust, but Verify -- The Danger Room
A Good START to a Safer World -- Huffington Post
New START and Nuclear Midnight -- Daniel McGroarty, Real Clear World
Our giant step towards a world free from nuclear danger -- Hillary Clinton, The Guardian