Predicting Future Coups?

Countries at 'highest' risk of a coup are red, 'high' risk are orange and 'risk' are yellow. Graphic: Tom Murphy/Jay Ulfelder

How To Predict A Coup -- The Guardian

After successfully anticipating events in Mali and Guinea-Bissau last year, what does the scientific crystal ball have in store next?

Which countries are most likely to see a coup this year? Political scientist Jay Ulfelder (if you are not already regularly reading his blog, go there now and subscribe) unveiled an index that attempts to answer that question early last year. With the mixed reports about a possible coup attempt in Eritrea recently, Max Fisher penned a post (worth reading in full) that uses Ulfelder's data on which countries are at the greatest coup risk.

What stands out is the visualisation of the data on a map done by Fisher. Africa lights up the globe with quite a few countries that make it into the top portion of the list. Ulfelder explained his index in Foreign Policy after successful coups in Guinea-Bissau and Mali last year.

Read more ....

My Comment: How Jay Ulfelder makes his predictions is explained here .... and it is a fascinating read.

The Year Ahead (Video Report From The Economist)

U.S. Likely To Remain At War For A Decade According To The US Vice Chairman Of The Joint Chiefs

Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. James Cartwright did not name specific nations beyond Iraq and the Afghanistan-Pakistan region that U.S. forces or assets might be deployed over the next decade. (MC 1 Chad J. McNeeley / U.S. Navy)

Cartwright: U.S. Likely To Remain At War For A Decade -- Defense News

For the next "five to 10 years," the U.S. military likely will remain engaged in the same kinds of conflicts it has been fighting since 2001, said Marine Corps Gen. James Cartwright.

The vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs on May 13 told a conference in Washington that "no one I know thinks we'll be out of" these kinds of conflicts any time soon.

Read more ....

More Comments From Marine Corps Gen. James Cartwright

Chaotic space traffic needs rules: US general -- AFP
Chaotic space traffic needs rules, less secrecy: US general -- Raw Story/AFP
General: Military needs cyberwar doctrine -- Washington Times
Gen. Cartwright: The United States Has to ‘Wake Up’ and Smell Reality -- Inside Defense

What To Watch In 2010

From DoD Buzz:

UPDATED: Veteran Pentagon Watcher Predicts Budget Gridlock if Gates Leaves And GOP Wins House and Heritage Analyst Comments

The defense world can be incredibly frustrating to cover. For the most part there is relatively little real change from year to year except in factors beyond the military’s control. So the military tends to adopt a worst case approach to the world and try to come up with solutions that fit a wide range of problems. That creates its own snafus, since systems like FCS or Future Imagery Architecture end up costing way too much and doing few things well. The military’s greatest successes are usually found in developing systems that do one or two things really well — think the Jeep, the Abrams tank, the boomer fleet, the A-​​10 Warthog.

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My Comment: A good analysis .... much of which I agree with. The budgetary wars are going to be brutal, especially since the GOP is in a position to reclaim the House (maybe), thereby increasing even more budget gridlock and conflict for the 2011 budget. As for Sec. of Defense Gates .... I do not see him leaving this year. He enjoys his job, he believes that he is making a difference (he is), and he has the ear and support of the President. To say no to all of that .... even with the President of the United States asking him to stay .... I do not see that in his character.