The U.S. DoD`s Report On North Korea

The Other DoD Report You May Have Missed: North Korea -- Harry Kazianis, The Diplomat

Last week, lost in the buzz that was the U.S. Department of Defense's latest assessment of China (see Andrew Erickson's Take here), DoD released another very important report with some crucial information all its own.

Entitled Military and Security Developments Involving the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea 2012, the report, in its unclassified format, attempts to provide information concerning "the current and future military power of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK)."

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My Comment: A must read for North Korean watchers. The report is here.

North Korea Intelligence Gathering Is The Black Hole In The Intellience Community

Kim Jong-un addresses North Koreans in Pyongyang. Photograph: Reuters

Intelligence On North Korea, And Its New Leader, Remains Elusive -- New York Times

WASHINGTON — The black hole of North Korea intelligence gathering is getting blacker.

When President Obama and South Korea’s new president, Park Geun-hye, meet for the first time at the White House on Tuesday, intelligence officials and outside experts say, they will be working, by necessity, from a deeply incomplete understanding of their common adversary. At a time when the United States has learned to conduct drone strikes with increasing accuracy in Pakistan, and direct cyberweapons at specific nuclear centrifuges deep under the Iranian desert, its understanding of North Korea’s leadership and weapons systems has actually gotten worse.

The most recent intelligence failures included what administration officials now acknowledge was the C.I.A.’s initial judgment — now reversed — that the North’s young new leader, Kim Jong-un, was probably more interested in economic reform than in following his father’s and grandfather’s “military first” policy of bolstering the North’s missile and nuclear arsenals, and threatening to use them unless the world came to its door.

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My Comment: The intelligence agencies should talk to this North Korean expert.

Why Has North Korea Gone Silent?

 

Why Is North Korea Cooling It? -- Elise Labott, CNN 

After weeks of fiery rhetoric, military saber rattling and threats against the United States and South Korea, North Korea seems downright quiet and willing to dial back the tension.

Fears Kim Jong Un would test a long-range missile have given way to an easing of his daily war threats, and North Korea has produced a list of conditions for dialogue.

In exchange for returning talks, North Korea wants the lifting of U.N. sanctions, the end of the U.S.-South Korea military drills, the withdrawal of U.S. nuclear strike capabilities from the region and a halt on criticism of the North. It also wants a South Korean apology for offending its leadership.

Still, even the subtle shift in tone is an improvement to the war footing Pyongyang was on just weeks ago. So what gives?

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My Comment: North Korea has not gone quiet .... their focus is elsewhere.

Some North Korean Spies Still Believe In The Kim Family And Communism

Trapped In South Korea, Veteran Spies Still believe In The North -- Reuters

(Reuters) - Park Hee-sung, a 78-year-old North Korean former agent who has been held in the enemy South for close to half a century, remains staunchly loyal to his homeland, the ruling Kim family and its Juche ideology of economic self-reliance.

A trim, neat man, Park is one of around two dozen North Korean operatives trapped in exile in affluent South Korea. He lives in a charity house in central Seoul with another former agent, 79-year-old Kim Young-sik, and dreams of the day he can return freely to the northern part of a unified Korea.

For Park and Kim, North Korea, which for several weeks has threatened the United States and South Korea with nuclear war, is no menace to world peace, rather a plucky nation that single-handedly stands up to American bullying.

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My Comment: My nationality is Russian .... so I have had my fill of meeting old Russians who still believe in Stalin. When I listen to them .... my eyes just roll around. I suspect in South Korea .... many Koreans are reacting the same way when they hear these two old North Korean spies.

Update: Here is a good post on North Korea .... 7 Things North Korea Is Really Good At.

Top U.S. General: Expect More "Provocations" From North Korea

U.S. Army Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, answers questions during a news conference following meetings at China’s ministry of national defense in Beijing, April 22, 2013. DOD photo by D. Myles Cullen

Top US General Foresees 'Prolonged Provocation' By North Korea -- Christian Science Monitor

Belligerence by North Korea, coinciding with Kim Jong-un's ascent as leader, is likely to continue for a 'prolonged' period, Gen. Martin Dempsey said Wednesday after a trip to China. He believes China's military to be as 'concerned' as the US about North Korea's actions.

North Korea is in ever-greater danger of provoking a fight under the leadership of Kim Jong-un, America's top military officer said Wednesday.

“I think we’re in a period of prolonged provocation” with North Korea, a condition that began when Kim Jong-un took over as leader of the military dictatorship from his father in late 2011.

“What that means is, I think, that the risk of miscalculation is higher, and I think the risk of escalation is higher,” Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said during a visit to Beijing this week, where Pentagon officials have sought China’s help in convincing Mr. Kim to ratchet down his confrontational rhetoric.

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My Comment: General Dempsey is not the only one who feels this way .... North Korea's immediate neighbors share this point of view .... even preparing for a worse case scenario.

Should America Cut Back On It's Missile Defense Deployment In The Pacific?

Photo: Secretary of State John Kerry greeting China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, on Saturday in Beijing. Pool photo by Yohsuke Mizuno

Kerry Goes to China, Seeking Help to Defuse Korea Crisis -- New York Times

BEIJING — Secretary of State John Kerry flew to China on Saturday and sought to elicit China’s help in dealing with an increasingly recalcitrant nuclear armed North Korea by saying that American missile defenses could be cut back if the North abandoned its nuclear program.

Mr. Kerry’s trip to China, his first since taking office, is part of an intensive three-day push to try to calm tensions on the Korean Peninsula that have threatened to spiral out of control and rattled world leaders.

In a news conference, Mr. Kerry suggested that the United States could remove some newly enhanced missile defenses in the region, though he did not specify which ones. Any eventual cutback would address Chinese concerns about the buildup of American weapons systems in the region.

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My Comment: Senator John Kerry was always a constant critic of the U.S. missile defense program .... and now as Secretary of State he wants to use missile defense as a bargaining tool .... my eyes are rolling.

I am sure that the Chinese are very happy with any proposal that will limit U.S. influence in Asia .... but lets face it .... North Korea does not have a government that abides by international rules and protocols and the Chinese are not going to force them to respect any agreement. This proposal by Sec. of State Kerry appears to be one of desperation .... coming from an administration that has no clue, policy, or understanding on what to do with North Korea.

Two More Reports On What Life Is Like In North Korea

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Inside North Korea: No Ads, No Planes, No Internet, No Mobiles, No 21st Century... A Rare Dispatch From Deep Within The Lunatic Rogue State Enslaved By Zombie And Sons -- Daily Mail 

* John Sweeney enters the secretive state to see 'the true North Korea'
* Travelled undercover as a tourist as journalist are barred from the state
* He found the regime 'a more frightening tyranny than Saddam's Iraq'

Down, down inside the Pyongyang Metro stands a statue of the Eternal Ruler of North Korea, Generalissimo Kim Il Sung – dead these past 19 years but still calling the shots. Brainwashing cast in bronze.

The regime’s florid propaganda blares from loudspeakers: ‘The pure white snows of our sacred mountains’ artillery will wipe the filthy enemy from existence.’ Or something like that.

The newspaper racks on the platforms detail the latest from the ‘American imperialist aggressors’ and warn of thermo-nuclear war.

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WNU Editor: The above video illustrates what AP photographer David Guttenfelder found in North Korea, and John Sweeney is the Daily Mail reporter in Pyongyang. As to what is my take on their coverage .... they were mainly in the cities and were always watched by minders. It's too bad that they could not go out into the countryside where underground reports are painting a far more dire picture.

How North Korea's Children Are Indoctrinated

Chilling Images From Inside The Mass Indoctrination Ceremonies Where Communist 'Cult' Leaders Brainwash North Korea's Children -- Daily Mail

* Youngsters aged seven to 13 inducted into Korean Children's Union, a group likened to the Hitler Youth
* Organisation pledges allegiance to warmongering dictator Kim Jong Un whom they refer to as 'father'
* Despot leader has previously described members as the 'future masters of a most powerful country'
* Ceremony held in a stadium in Pyongyang as North Korea presses ahead with ballistic missile launch

They are barely seven years old, but these glum-looking children are already being drafted into a tyrannical regime hellbent on waging nuclear war with the world.

Standing in arrow-straight rows, their faces are hardly the picture of happiness as they are forced to pledge their allegiance to North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un and call him 'father'.

Troubling images of them being inducted into an organisation likened to the Hitler Youth emerged as their despot leader pressed ahead with plans to launch a ballistic missile, potentially with nuclear capabilities.

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My Comment: Chilling images .... and it works. My father grew up in the Ukraine during their 1932-33 famine. He was 11 years old, but I always remember him telling me how he and his classmates had to attend a gathering on Stalin's birthday. They had to sing praises of Stalin even though they were all hungry .... buy here is the kicker .... they all believed in what they were singing.

80 years later .... we are now witnessing the same situation in North Korea today.

Shock Video And Photos Show True Horror Of Kim Jong-un's Evil Regime

Inside North Korea: Shock Video And Photos Show True Horror Of Kim Jong-un's Evil Regime -- Mirror

Our reporter at the border uncovers the true story of North Korea that warmongering Kim Jong-un does not want the outside world to see.

Child of around 10 sits dying of starvation by the side of the road while just yards away soldiers load enough rice on to trucks to feed families for weeks.

As the young boy slumps on the grimy kerb in his filthy, oversized army jacket, locals stroll past zombie-style without even glancing in his direction or displaying an ounce of pity for his wretched plight.

Nearby his friends scavenge in disease-ridden rubbish tips for scraps of what might pass for food in a land where people are so poor they are forced to eat tree bark or even corpses, according to those on the inside.

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My Comment: I suspect that this is just the tip of the iceberg.

Foreign Reactions To The Korean Crisis

G8 Ministers Condemn North Korea Nuclear Moves -- BBC

Foreign ministers from the G8 group of nations have condemned in the "strongest possible terms" North Korea's nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programmes.

Tensions have risen on the Korean peninsula in recent weeks.

The ministers also expressed "deep concerns about the increasing human tragedy of the conflict in Syria".

They also endorsed what they called a historic pledge on preventing sexual violence in conflict.

The Group of Eight nations comprises the US, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Canada and Russia.

Britain currently holds the rotating chairmanship of the G8 and the talks are a prelude to the annual G8 summit later this year in Northern Ireland.

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More News On Foreign Reaction To The Korean Crisis

North Korea's aggressive stance condemned by G8 in 'strongest terms' -- The Guardian
G-8 Threatens North Korea With 'Significant Measures' -- Wall Street Journal
G8 Threatens Action if North Korea Launches Missile -- Voice of America
G8 ministers condemn North Korea "in strongest terms" -- Reuters
G8 ministers fail to agree on Syria; no plan on North Korea -- Reuters
South Korea Moves to Defuse Tensions With the North -- New York Times
South Korea Unfazed by North's Rhetoric -- Wall Street Journal
North Korea: Japan Anxious Over Missiles -- SKY News
Japan's capital living in shadow of North Korea's belligerence -- CNN
Lavrov Says Russia Agrees With U.S. on North Korea, Hopes for Calm -- New York Times/Reuters
Russia Warns Against Military Maneuvers Near North Korea -- Radio Free Europe
China warns North Korea it will not tolerate 'troublemaking' -- Independent
China grows weary of North Korea's 'chaos and conflict' -- NBC
China and Russia urge North Korea to step back from missile launch -- Independent.ie

DPRK: The Land Of Whispers (North Korea Travel Documentary 2013)

My Comment: A fascinating video on life in North Korea. The producer is right about how easy it is to enter North Korea as a tourist. There are numerous restrictions .... but if you have the cash you can get in. I had the chance to enter North Korea in 2009 .... to play golf of all things. I said no .... I know about the hidden gulags and I certainly did not want to experience what it feels like to live in a Stalinist regime. My parents did all of that when Stalin was the Soviet ruler .... and that's where (for my family's history) it is going to stop.

North Korea To Suspend All Joint Industrial Work With South Korea

N Korea To Halt Work At Joint Industrial Zone -- Al Jazeera

Pyongyang to pull all 53,000 workers and temporarily shut Kaesong complex, as Seoul backtracks on nuclear test report.

North Korea has announced it would pull all its 53,000 workers out the Kaesong joint industrial zone with South Korea and temporarily shut the complex down.

"We will pull out all our workers from the Kaesong Industrial Complex," Kim Yang Gon, a senior ruling party official said in a statement on Monday carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.

At the same time, Pyongyang "will temporarily suspend the operations in the zone and examine the issue of whether it will allow its existence or close it", Kim added.

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More News On North Korea Suspending All Joint Industrial Work With South Korea

North Korea says it's pulling workers out of joint industrial zone -- CNN
North Korea suspends Kaesong operations and withdraws 50,000 staff -- The Guardian
Pyongyang Suspends Kaesong Operations -- Wall Street Journal
In slap at South, NKorea suspends work at factory -- AP
N. Korea Recalling Workers from Jointly Run Factory -- Time/AP
North Korea suspends last major project with South Korea -- Christian Science Monitor

My Comment: This is a very worrisome development. This tells me one of two things .... North Korea is about to enter a period of isolation .... or .... it is actually preparing for war.

Is Diplomacy The Next Step With North Korea?

Kerry To Seek Diplomatic 'Off-Ramp' For North Korea -- CNN

When he visits Asia later this week, Secretary of State John Kerry will discuss potential diplomatic incentives for North Korea once it stops its bellicose rhetoric and threatening behavior, senior administration officials tell CNN.

Officials warn any resumption of talks with North Korea is premature, and could only come once Pyongyang adheres to its international obligations. But they say Kerry hopes the new emphasis on diplomacy will give the North Koreans a face-saving way to de-escalate the current situation.

"Secretary Kerry agrees that we have to have a robust deterrent because we really don't know what these guys will do," one senior official said. "But he also knows that the North Koreans need a diplomatic off-ramp and that they have to be able to see it."

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My Comment: Yup .... I can now see it .... North Korea sucking up to America and the West, pleading for mercy and apologizing for their behavior.

Who Really Has The Power In Pyongyang?

The pair were seen on either side of Kim Jong-un at a central committee session of the Workers' Party last weekend

Who Really Has The Power In Pyongyang? Kim Jong-un's AUNT 'Was Driving Force Behind His Rise To Leader' -- Daily Mail

* Kim Kyong-hui is often only female face on official photographs
* She is the daughter of the North Korean Eternal President Kim Il-sung
* Miss Kim and husband chosen by Kim Jong-il to consolidate son's authority

The aunt of Kim Jong-un has been credited with being the driving force behind the rise of the Supreme Leader of North Korea.

Kim Kyong-hui, who is often the only female face on official photographs of ranks of generals and party leaders, has been tasked with transforming her nephew into a figurehead with a reputation for strong military tactics who is able to handle an international crisis.

Miss Kim, who has been a key figure in the family for four decades, and her husband Jang Sung-taek, were chosen by Kim Jong-il to pull the strings behind the consolidation of his son's authority before the old leader died in 2011, The Telegraph has reported.

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Update: As Kim Jong-un plays the tough guy, his aunt and uncle hold the reins of power -- The Telegraph

My Comment: In the corridors of power in North Korea .... people have come and go .... but this pair has always been there.

Is North Korea Planning Cyber Attacks Against South Korea And The U.S.?

North Korea Readies Missile Launch As Fears Of A Covert Cyberwar Grow -- The Guardian

As Pyongyang moves ballistic weapons to the coast, it may also be planning to disable computer networks in the US

South Korea is bracing for a protracted standoff with the North that could include at least one missile test-launch and a border skirmish.

On Friday, North Korea attempted to heighten fears of military conflict when it told embassies in its capital, Pyongyang, that it could not guarantee the safety of their staff in the event of war. In another sign that it is determined to increase the pressure, Pyongyang extended a ban preventing South Korean officials from entering the Kaesong industrial complex – which it operates jointly with the South – for a fourth day.

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Update #1: North Korean cyber attack on cards, says defector -- New Zealand Herald
Update #2: N.Korea 'Confident' in Cyber Warfare Capabilities -- Chosun Ilbo

My Comment: In response to these threats, the U.S. and South Korea have apparently drawn up plans to respond more forcefully than in the recent past .... but in a limited way intended to prevent an escalation to broader war. Not surprisingly .... no specific details on what those plans actually are.

As Tensions Rise In North Korea, Foreign Embassies Face A Decision To stay Or Leave

Embassies Face Decisions As Tensions Rise In North Korea -- CNN

(CNN) -- Foreign diplomatic missions in North Korea face an ominous decision after Pyongyang said it could not guarantee the safety of embassies and international organizations in the event of armed conflict.

Tensions on the Korean peninsula remain in a heightened state amid new reports that North Korea has prepared missiles for launch, while South Korea has deployed naval destroyers to its coasts.

The British Foreign Office said North Korea told British officials that it would not be able to guarantee the safety of diplomats in the capital if fighting breaks out.

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Previous Post: All Embassies Have Been Told To Evacuate Their Staff From North Korea Immediately


My Comment: Why is North Korea focused on April 10? It makes you wonder on what is going to happen after that date.

Update: North Korea today sparked fears that it could trigger a nuclear strike as early as next WEDNESDAY.

South Korean Intelligence Cannot Account For Two North Korean Subs

Photo: Yono Class Midget Sub

Two North Korean Submarines "Disappeared" -- Zero Hedge

Chosun TV is reporting that South Korean military have lost contact with two North Korean submarines that left their naval base in Hwanghae Province a few days ago.

There has obviously been a lot of changes between last week and now and South Korean military officials suggested that while maneuvers in February were nothing meaningful, now it is provocation.

The two 'torpedo' subs are small 130-ton, 30-meter, 10-man machines that can stay submerged for three-to-four days.

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My Comment: A reader of this blog (New York Times best selling author WC Reed) gave me the heads up that two of these subs "are missing". With the exception of Zero Hedge and Chosun TV, no one else has followed up on this story. What's my take .... South Korean and U.S. intelligence are watching North Korea very closely now .... it is disturbing that they cannot account for these two subs .... especially now.

Breaking News!!!: All Embassies Have Been Told To Evacuate Their Staff From North Korea Immediately

Russian embassy in Pyohgyang (Photo from www.rusembdprk.ru/posolstvo)

Get out Of North Korea, Now! ALL Embassies Told To Evacuate Staff From Pyongyang After Madman Dictator Warns He 'Cannot Guarantee Safety Of Foreigners' -- Daily Mail

* Rogue communist state issued a deadline of April 10 to every government
* Russia in 'contact with U.S., China and South Korea' about staff safety
* About two dozen countries, including the U.K., have embassies in North Korea - although the U.S. has no diplomatic relations
* N Korea has moved second Musudan missile with 3,000km range
* South Korea deployed two warships with missile-defence systems

All government embassies have been instructed to evacuate staff from Pyongyang after dictator Kim Jong-un warned he could not 'guarantee the safety of foreigners.'

The rogue communist state issued a deadline of April 10 to every government that is represented in North Korea in a dramatic new escalation of the nuclear crisis.

Today the British Foreign Office confirmed it had been told its staff were at risk while Russia said it was in 'close contact with the U.S, China and South Korea' about airlifting workers out.

Advice for tourists is set to change after North Korea moved a second missile to its east coast, according to South Korea's Yonhap news agency.

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More News On North Korea Advising All Embassies that they cannot Guarantee Their Safety After April 10

North Korea warns embassies of conflict risk as missiles move -- Reuters
North Korea advises embassies to evacuate personnel -- Deutsche Welle
North Korea says it cannot guarantee foreign diplomats' safety after 10 April -- The Guardian
North Korea urges embassy evacuations, diplomats say -- Washington Post
North Korea: Foreign embassy staff may not be safe if there's war -- NBC
North Korea tells embassies in Pyongyang to plan for evacuation -- National Post
North Korea warns it cannot protect embassies after April 10 -- NDTV/AFP
North Korea Warns Foreign Embassies To Evacuate Pyongyang -- IBTimes
North Korea warns safety of British diplomats 'cannot be guaranteed' -- BBC
Full Story: British Foreign Office told to evacuate -- The Telegraph
Evacuate embassies: North Korea asks Russian diplomats, others to get out now -- Washington Times
Russia Considers Pyongyang's Suggestion to Evacuate Embassy -- Voice of America
North Korea Suggests Embassies Evacuate Staff – Russia -- RIA Novosti
N.Korea 'can't protect foreign embassies after April 10', Russia 'not evacuating' -- RT

Who Are North Korea's Foreign Supporters And Apologists

Women walk past portraits of North Korea's founder Kim Il Sung and late leader Kim Jong Il in Pyongyang on Monday. Reuters

North Korea's Overseas Apologists Dismiss 'Propaganda' About Torture, Repression -- NBC

Anyone reading North Korea’s state-owned news agency could be forgiven for thinking that North Korea has legions of supporters throughout the world.

“U.S. and Its Allies' Moves to Stifle DPRK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea -- or North Korea] Protested in Britain,” “Independent DPRK Praised by Bangladeshi Organization,” and “Day of Sun to Be Celebrated in Italy” are just three of the numerous headlines on KCNA’s English-language site trumpeting overseas support for Kim Jong Un’s regime.

But given the reports by human-rights groups detailing the horror of daily life in North Korea, who are the foreigners taking Pyongyang’s side?

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My Comment: This NBC report tries to minimize on who are North Korea's international supporters .... but the fact is that there are many. From the late Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to the current Iranian President .... North Korea has had it's supporters .... including the North Korea's biggest ally .... China. In the West .... much of this support has been on the individual level .... and in small numbers .... but it is there, and knowing how people love to live in a world of denial .... will probably always be there. 

Economic Reforms In North Korea?

N.Korean Economic Reformer Back as Prime Minister -- Chosun Ilbo

A veteran technocrat who led North Korea's tentative economic reforms a decade ago has again become prime minister of the impoverished country. According to the official KCNA news agency on Monday, Pak Pong-ju's appointment was confirmed by the Supreme People's Assembly.

Pak already served as prime minister from 2003 until 2007 with the backing of former leader Kim Jong-il. A government official here said it is rare for a figure with no blood ties to the ruling family to make a successful comeback. "Pak's life is like a movie," the official added.

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More News On The Appointment Of An Economic Reformer In North Korea

North Korea names Kim clan associate to premiership -- Reuters
North Korea names official known for economic reform as premier amid nuclear tension -- Washington Post
New North Korean prime minister is supporter of Chinese style economic reform -- Shanghaiist
N. Korea Names Economic Expert as New Premier -- Arirang News
North Korea appoints ‘reformer’ to top leadership post (but don’t get your hopes up) -- Max Fisher, Washington Post

My Comment: All former communist regimes implemented their first reforms in the economic arena. With this history, everyone is hoping that North Korea will follow the same route.