3 Worse Case Scenarios In The Event Of A Korean War

South Korean soldiers take a position during a drill at a guard post near the Demilitarized Zone separating the two Koreas in Yanggu, 130 km northeast of Seoul, on May 24, 2010. (Photo by Yonhap/AFP/Getty Images)

3 Forgotten Fears Of A Reignited Korean War -- Popular Mechanics

As tensions continue to escalate between North and South Korea, we look at the worst-case scenarios that could result from an all-out war between the two.

Tensions in the Korean Peninsula are at their worst point in decades after a North Korean submarine ambushed a South Korean warship, killing scores of sailors. Although North Korea has made violent provocation a cornerstone of its foreign and domestic policy for years, there is always the chance that this kind of brinksmanship will spark a major war.

With an isolated and paranoid regime like North Korea holding some of the world's most terrifying weapons, any reaction from the South or the United States could be seen as the first phase of a larger war. After all, part of the joint battle plans drafted by the U.S. and South Korea—called Plan 5027—recommend regime change in the event of a major conflict. So a skirmish could escalate into a war of mutual survival.

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My Comment: If war should ever break out, the DMZ will be hell on earth .... and the aftermath even worse. These 3 scenarios do not include nuclear, or what a long drawn out campaign in the middle of winter can do to a society like South Korea .... either way the casualty count will be in the hundreds of thousands .... if not more.

In The Koreas, Five Possible Ways To War

From The New York Times:

USUALLY, there is a familiar cycle to Korea crises.

Like a street gang showing off its power to run amok in a well-heeled neighborhood, the North Koreans launch a missile over Japan or set off a nuclear test or stage an attack — as strong evidence indicates they did in March, when a South Korean warship was torpedoed. Expressions of outrage follow. So do vows that this time, the North Koreans will pay a steep price.

In time, though, the United States and North Korea’s neighbors — China, Japan, South Korea and Russia — remind one another that they have nothing to gain from a prolonged confrontation, much less a war. Gradually, sanctions get watered down. Negotiations reconvene. Soon the North hints it can be enticed or bribed into giving up a slice of its nuclear program. Eventually, the cycle repeats.

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My Comment: From the list my biggest worry is the last one .... a nuclear provocation. North Korea needs money .... and exporting their nuclear tech is a surefire way of getting some.

Predicting What A Korean War Would Look Like

What Would a Korean War Look Like? 4 Predictions -- AOL News

Tensions continue to mount on the Korean peninsula in the wake of an international investigation that concluded a North Korean submarine was responsible for sinking a South Korean navy ship in April, killing 46 sailors. In the latest chess moves, Seoul staged a big anti-submarine drill, which Pyongyang responded to by saying it will no longer honor an agreement meant to avoid accidental naval clashes between the two nations.

As the crisis escalates, an unsettling question comes into focus: What would war on the Korean peninsula look like some 50-odd years after the armistice that brought the Korean War to an end?

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My Comment: What is my take .... such a war will produce hundreds of thousands of casualties (if not more), heavy U.S. military casualties that will dwarf Iraq and Afghanistan combined, massive economic destruction, the destruction of the North Korean Government, and a humanitarian crisis in the North that will need massive aid for years.

S.Korea Military Botches Boat Sinking Probe

A giant floating crane, the Daewoo 3600, yesterday moves toward the site where the Cheonan sank on the night of March 26 to salvage the stern of the Navy corvette. The crane arrived near Baengnyeong Island yesterday morning. [NEWSIS]

S.Korea Military Botches Boat Sinking Probe -- The Asian Sentinel

South Korea is rife with rumors over the mysterious sinking of the Navy patrol craft Cheonan on March 26. While the Department of Defense struggles to cobble together answers, few people are hiding their anger and doubts about the department’s clueless crisis management. One critic described the Defense Department’s crisis standard operating procedure as “a bureaucratic giant running around with his hair on fire -- but no system.”

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More News On The Sinking Of The Cheonan

Salvaging of Sunken Ship Could Be Completed Next Weekend -- Korea Times
U.S.-educated scientist named to jointly head sunken ship probe -- Yonhap News Agency
Foreign experts will join Cheonan probe -- Joong And Daily
The Cheonan cover-up -- Asia Times
Speculation Over NK Attack on Cheonan Mounting -- Korea Times

Salvaging The Korean Naval Ship Cheonan Continues

Gen. Lee Sang-eui, left, chairman of South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Gen. Walter Sharp, right, commander of U.S. Forces Korea, shake hands yesterday before meeting in the conference room of South Korea’s Defense Ministry in Yongsan District, central Seoul. [Joint Press Corps]

U.S. Experts Join Cheonan Probe -- Joong Ang Daily

United States experts are scheduled to visit South Korea as early as next week to help Korean investigators determine what caused a naval ship to split in two and sink near the maritime border in the Yellow Sea.

According to the Joint Chiefs of Staff in Seoul yesterday, 14 high-ranking military officers from South Korea and the U.S. Forces in South Korea, including Gen. Lee Sang-eui, chairman of South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Gen. Walter Sharp, the commander of the U.S. Forces Korea, agreed to dispatch U.S. experts to Seoul to help the investigation.

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More News On Salvaging The Cheonan

US to Assist S. Korea in Probe of Sunken Warship -- Voice of America
US, SKorea to jointly probe ship sinking -- AP
U.S. finds no North link to Cheonan -- Joong Ang Daily
NK Involvment in Ship Sinking Doubted -- Korea Times
Cheonan Probe Cannot Be Left to the Military -- Chosun Ilbo
Lee Warns Against Speculation Over Cheonan -- Korea Times
South Korea's Lee calls for patience in Cheonan ship sinking investigation -- Christian Science Monitor
South Korea Defends Handling of Sunken Ship -- Wall Street Journal

News Updates On The Sinking Of The South Korean Warship Cheonan

South Korea Cheonan Warship Sinking: Diver Dies During Rescue Efforts -- Christian Science Monitor

Strong currents frustrated rescue efforts for 46 sailors thought to be trapped on the sunken South Korea Cheonan warship, dimming their hopes for survival.

Efforts to enter the hull of the sunken South Korea Cheonan warship were foiled Tuesday by strong underwater currents, dimming hope for the survival of the 46 sailors thought to be trapped inside.

Divers worked throughout the day to no avail trying to gain access to the Cheonan, a Navy corvette that was blown in two Friday night in a mysterious explosion and now sits 40 meters underwater. Fifty-eight other sailors were pulled from the ship as it sank near the disputed Yellow Sea border with North Korea.

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More News On the Sinking of The South Korean Warship Cheonan

Korean Diver Dies in Search for Navy Shipwreck Survivors -- ABC News
South Korean rescue diver dies -- Al Jazeera
Divers drill into hull of sunken South Korean combat ship -- L.A. Times
Divers Seek Way Into Sunk Korean Ship -- Wall Street Journal
South Korea's Cheonan ship sinking mystery: A North Korea mine? -- Christian Science Monitor
South Korea fears mine from north sank ship -- The Guardian
Speculation rises on N.K. involvement -- The Korea Herald
N.Korea 'Runs Naval Suicide Squads' -- The Chosun Ilbo

Hopes Fade For 46 Sailors After S Korean Ship Sinks

Korean Rescuers Search for Survivors -- Wall Street Journal

SEOUL—South Korean naval and civilian rescue teams worked in cold, rough waters for a second day Sunday but again found no more survivors from a patrol boat that sank after an explosion in the Yellow Sea near the maritime border with North Korea.

Rescue boats saved 58 sailors in the hours immediately after the explosion Friday night, but 46 others are missing and the likelihood of survival appears slim.

The cause of the explosion, which happened in the stern of the ship, hasn't been determined. Because the ship was near the maritime border, officials are considering the possibility that North Korea was involved.

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More News On The Sinking Of The Korean naval Ship Cheonan

Families seek answers after sinking of South Korean warship -- Times Online
Angry families visit site of sunken SKorean ship -- AP
South Korea Searches for Survivors of Sunken Navy Ship -- New York Times
Sunk South Korea naval ship Cheonan 'split in half' -- BBC
Hopes fade for South Korean sailors after sinking -- CNN
Hopes fade for 46 sailors after SKorean ship sinks -- AP
S. Korea hunts for missing after warship blast -- Sydney Morning Herald
More Questions Raised Than Answered Over Sunken Ship -- Korea Times
Cause of Ship Sinking Yet to Be Pinpointed -- Korea Times
Speculations vary on cause of ship sinking -- Korea Herald
Investigation ordered into sinking of South Korean warship as relatives express anger -- The Telegraph
Chief US Commander in Seoul Says No "Special Movements" by N. Korea Detected -- Arirang news

The Outcome Of A Korean War

Watch CBS News Videos Online

What Would Happen If North Korea Attacked? -- CBS News

David Martin Talks with Strategists about the Horrific Outcome of a Conventional War on Korean Peninsula.

(CBS) A nighttime satellite photo of the Korean Peninsula reveals the stunning gap between the modern South and the black hole that is North Korea. How can a country which can barely keep the lights on even think about starting a war?

"If the North starts anything, the North loses and I believe that firmly," said John Tilelli.

Tilelli believes that based on his three years as the commanding General of the U.S. and South Korean forces.

"If this were to happen, is this a short war or a long war?" asked CBS News correspondent David Marin.

"I think it is a short war," Tilelli said.

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My Comment: Like all communist regimes who use war as an instrument of foreign policy, the casualties and destruction that it would cause factors low in their calculations. Especially in this case .... a North Korean Communist attack against the South will be a full blown war with the intent to attain an all out victory in the end. The key is do we and our allies have the will to achieve victory. Quite frankly .... that is an answer in which I am not sure about.