The Day After A Strike On Iran

The Day After A Strike On Iran -- Marwan Muasher, National Interest

All eyes are on what it will take to prevent Iran from getting its hands on a nuclear weapon. If sanctions and diplomacy prove incapable of containing Tehran’s nuclear ambitions—and soon—a military strike to destroy or at the very least delay its program is seen as the least bad option available. Iran gaining a nuclear-weapons capability is a red line that the United States and Israel just won’t let it cross.

But not enough thought has been given to what happens after a strike is actually carried out.

Debate in the United States ends at how to prevent Iran from getting the bomb, while the repercussions of a military strike are not widely discussed. This ominously echoes the run up to the war in Iraq.

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My Comment: Tough questions with no easy answers.

Iran Implicated In Funneling Weapons To Yemen's Rebels

Yemen Seizes Sailboat Filled With Weapons, And U.S. Points To Iran -- New York Times

WASHINGTON — The authorities in Yemen have seized a boat in their territorial waters filled with a large quantity of explosives, weapons and money, according to American officials briefed on the interdiction. The officials said Monday that there were indications that Iran was smuggling the military contraband to insurgents inside Yemen, although they declined to provide details.

Yemeni security forces halted and searched the sailboat, a 130-foot dhow, last Tuesday and found the weapons in three large cargo rooms in the hold, according to reports on the mission reaching Washington. There was American support for the interdiction, officials said.

The government of Yemen confirmed the seizure Monday in an official statement. The captured weapons included surface-to-air missiles used to shoot down civilian and military aircraft, C4 military-grade explosives, 122-millimeter shells, rocket-propelled grenades and bomb-making equipment, including electronic circuits, remote triggers and other hand-held explosives, the statement said.

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Update: Large arms shipment intercepted off Yemen, Iran eyed as source -- Reuters

My Comment: The surface to air missiles should raise alarm bells throughout the region.

Russia Warns The West To Not Strike Iran's Nuclear Sites

Lavrov Warns Against Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Sites -- RIA Novosti

MOSCOW, January 23 (RIA Novosti) - Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Wednesday warned against the idea of strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities, as Israel's incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was reelected to his post for a third term with a promise he would do all he could to prevent Iran getting a nuclear bomb.

“Attempts to prepare and carry out strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities are a very dangerous idea,” Lavrov said at a press conference on Russian Foreign Policy in 2012 in Moscow.

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Update: Russia warns Israel, West against attack on Iran -- Reuters

My Comment: Will this White House and an Israeli government (weakened after yesterday's election) decide to get together (or independently) and launch a military strike against Iran .... I just do not see it. Put 4 aircraft carrier groups in the Arabian Sea and scores of fighter squadrons in the Gulf sheikdoms followed with a positioning of B-2s at Diego Garcia .... maybe .... but today .... nothing of this sort is happening.

The Arms Buildup In The Gulf Is A Reflection of U.S. Policy In The Region

U.S. Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta speaks to troops, wishing them happy holidays and thanking them for their service, at Ali Al Salem Air Base, Kuwait, Dec 12, 2012. DOD photo by Erin A. Kirk-Cuomo

U.S. Arms To Gulf Allies Hint Of Strategy -- Washington Times

The largest infusion of U.S. arms ever for Persian Gulf allies has shifted more toward offensive weapons at the same time that President Obama’s military strategy says it will rely more on allied firepower in any future war.

The only war on the horizon for Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and four other Gulf coalition partners would be with nearby Iran.

Noting U.S. sales of air defense-penetrating F-16s and F-15s, satellite-guided bombs and a pending order for ordnance that can burrow deep and then explode, analysts say Gulf nations could participate in a U.S. air campaign to strike Iran’s nuclear sites.

These American-armed nations could either be part of an overall war plan or be forced to enter the battle once Iran counterattacks, as expected, with missile launches.

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My Comment: I am sure that Iran is noticing this arms buildup .... and wondering on how to respond to it.

Update: Sanctions against Iran are starting to have an impact.

Secret War With Iran Heats Up

From Sudan To Cyber, Secret War With Iran Heats Up -- New York Times/Reuters

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - From a suspected Israeli airstrike in Sudan to cyber warfare in the Gulf and a drone shot down over Israel, the largely hidden war between Iran and its foes seems heating up and spreading.

Despite months of speculation, most experts and governments believe the risk of a direct Israeli strike on Tehran's nuclear program stirring regional conflict has eased, at least for now. But all sides, it seems, are finding other ways to fight.

For the US and European powers , the main focus remains on oil export sanctions that are inflicting ever more damage on Iran's economy.

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My Comment: The focus is now on sanctions .... and they are having an impact. As for Israel .... they are still threatening a military strike.

Is Iran Launching Cyber Attacks Against The U.S.?

Iran Strikes Back -- Washington Free Beacon

Iranians used University of Michigan network in recent bank attacks.

Iranian hackers took over a University of Michigan computer network during a massive cyber attack on U.S. financial systems last week that continued following comments on the strike by Defense Secretary Leon Panetta.

According to reports by a leading Internet security-monitoring firm, the cyber attacks against Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Citibank, and several other U.S. financial institutions began Oct. 8 when hackers gained control of the university’s College of Engineering network in Ann Arbor.

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More News On Iran Launching Their Own Cyber Attacks

U.S. Suspects Iran Was Behind a Wave of Cyberattacks -- New York Times
Iran behind many recent cyber attacks -- CBS
US: Iran is to blame for cyberattacks -- ZDNet
US Increasingly Convinced Iran Behind Attack On Saudi Aramco -- Tech Week Europe
US thinks Iran behind cyberattack in Saudi: ex-official -- Phys.org
Iran military likely already hit US with cyberattack -- Stars and Stripes
Netanyahu: Israel under cyber attack from Iran -- China.org.cn
Iran denies role in Aramco cyberattack -- UPI
Iran’s Cyber Warfare -- Canada Free Press
US warning reflects fears of Iranian cyberattack -- AP
Iranian Hackers Are Becoming a Real Pain -- Connor Simpson, The Atlantic
U.S., Iran ramping up cyberwar capability -- UPI

Is Iran Considering A Massive Oil Spill In The Persian Gulf?

Iran Considers Deliberate Persian Gulf Oil Spill -- Jerusalem Post

'Der Spiegel' reports Tehran mulls polluting Strait of Hormuz in response to sanctions; Iran seeks to cut foreign imports.

Iran is considering the possibility of spilling oil in the Persian Gulf in order to contaminate the waters of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, German weekly Der Spiegel reported on Sunday. The spill would be a way of "punishing" the West and forcing it to decrease the economic sanctions imposed against Tehran.

Citing Western intelligence sources, Der Spiegel reported that the plan, codenamed "Murky Waters," is meant to block shipping routes in the Gulf to international oil tankers.

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More News On Reports That Iran Is Preparing To Pollute The Persian Gulf In Retaliation For Sanctions

Iran accused of plotting Gulf oil spill to punish West for sanctions by poisoning Gulf -- Independent
Iran Weighs Plan to Cause Oil Spill: Report -- Newser
Iran Considering Plan To Cause Oil Spill In Strait Of Hormuz [Report] -- The Inquisitr
Iran develops plans to cause oil spill: report -- Gulf Times/AFP

My Comment: On the issue of Iran wanting to pollute their own waterways .... for once I am in agreement with Antiwar.com.

Don't Bet On A Surgical Strike On Iran's Nuclear Facilities

Rumors Of An Imminent Attack On Iran -- Heather Hurlburt, Daily Beast

Earlier this week, a respected journalist reported that the White House is considering a 'surgical strike' on Iran. Don’t bet on it, says Heather Hurlburt.

Earlier this week, Foreign Policy’s David Rothkopf reported that a source “close to White House discussions” believed that U.S. and Israeli planners were approaching agreement on the outlines of a joint, “surgical” strike on Iran’s nuclear program.

This report is wildly improbable politically: on the same day it appeared, Prime Minister Netanyahu dissolved his government and called new elections, which will take place in January or February.

Perhaps more important, it is operationally improbable: senior Pentagon officials, Israeli experts, and outside military analysts have said again and again that there is no “surgical” strike option. Supporters and opponents have agreed that any strike, in order to have even a delaying effect on the Iranian nuclear program, would have to be sustained, broad, and massive.

Why? Let’s review.

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My Comment: I completely concur with this analysis

Iran President: Israel Is Bluffing On Attacking Iran's Nuclear Program

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: Israel Is Bluffing On Iran Attack Threat -- The Telegraph

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad accused Israel of bluffing over threats of air strikes against his country's nuclear programme on Monday while once again questioning the right of the Jewish state to exist.

In a series of combative interviews in New York on the eve of the UN General Assembly, Iran's political leader said Israel was making a lot of 'noise' and encouraging the West to prevent legitimate scientific progress in his country.

Reiterating that he was open to dialogue with the United States on the nuclear issue he also said he was prepared to defend Iran from any external threat.

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More News On Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's UN Speech

Ahmadinejad dismisses war threats on Iran nuclear program, says he seeks dialogue -- Washington Post/AP
Ahmadinejad: Iran doesn't take Israeli threats of attack seriously -- Haaretz
Iran does not fear Israeli strike: Ahmadinejad -- AFP
Iran's Leader Keeps Up Bluster Against Israel -- Wall Street Journal
Iran president: Israel short-lived in region, will be eliminated -- L.A. Times
In New York, defiant Ahmadinejad says Israel will be 'eliminated' -- Reuters
Iran’s President, in New York, Says Israelis Have No Mideast Roots -- New York Times

Iran's Military Chief: We Could Wipe Out Israel

Photo: General Mohammad Ali Jafari

We Could Wipe Out Israel, Says Iranian Military Chief After Threats Against Islamic Republic Over Controversial Nuclear Programme -- Daily Mail

* General Mohammad Ali Jafari, also warned that if attacked, Iran would close the strategic Strait of Hormuz and hit US bases in the Middle East

Iran's top military commander yesterday said ‘nothing will remain’ of Israel if it took military action against the Islamic republic’s controversial nuclear programme.

General Mohammad Ali Jafari, head of the Revolutionary Guard, also warned that if attacked, Iran would close the strategic Strait of Hormuz and hit US bases in the Middle East.

Such warnings, and references to Israel’s destruction, have frequently been made by Iranian officials however the General gave an unusually detailed, strongly worded and comprehensive description on how Tehran would retaliate against a strike on its nuclear facilities.

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My Comment: This is the first time that Iran is providing details on how they would respond to an attack on their nuclear facilities. But even though he provided details .... he made it very clear that he still does not believe that either Israel or the U.S. will attack.

Russia: Attacking Iran Would Be A 'Disaster'

Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran. © RIA Novosti. Andrei Reznichenko

Attacking Iran Would Be ‘Disastrous’ Russia Warns -- RT

As Iranians reel under the pressure of international sanctions, a Russian Deputy Foreign Minister said Washington’s unilateral sanction regime against Iran is a violation of international law.

­Saying that Russia has found no evidence that Iran is intent on developing a weapon, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov warned the United States and Israel on the “disastrous” consequences of attacking Iran.

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More News On Russian Concerns of A Military Strike Against Iran

Russia says attacking Iran would be "disastrous": Ifax -- Reuters
Russia Says No Evidence Iran Working On Nuclear Arms -- Radio Free Europe
Russia Warns Against an Israeli Strike Against Iran -- Yeshiva World
Moscow condemns US unilateral sanctions on Iran -- Voice of Russia

Odds Of War With Iran Increasing

Odds Of War With Iran Increase To 40% -- Dominic Tierney, The Atlantic

Our expert panel gauges the odds that the United States or Israel will strike the Islamic Republic in the next year.

The probability of conflict with Iran is now at 40 percent, according to The Atlantic's Iran War Dial.

We've assembled a high profile team of experts from the policy world, academia, and journalism to periodically predict the chances that Israel or the United States will strike Iran in the next year. For more on the Iran War Dial and the panelists, visit our FAQ page.

Peace remains more likely than war. But the chances of conflict have ticked upward for the second month in a row, from 36 percent in June, to 38 percent in July, and now 40 percent in August.

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My Comment: I have always ridiculed this metric used by The Atlantic in the past .... the odds of war are either zero or 100 percent .... it's like .... you are pregnant or you are not. In regards to what are the odds of war with Iran .... for now I say that it is zero.

Western Intelligence: Iran's Supreme Leader Has Ordered Terror Attacks Against Western Targets

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Wikipedia

Iran's Supreme Leader Orders Fresh Terror Attacks On West -- The Telegraph

Iran's Supreme Leader has ordered the country's Revolutionary Guards to intensify its campaign of terror attacks against the West and its allies in retaliation for supporting the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

According to Western intelligence officials, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gave the order to the elite Quds Force unit following a recent emergency meeting of Iran's National Security Council in Tehran held to discuss a specially-commissioned report into the implications for Iran of the Assad regime's overthrow.

Damascus is Iran's most important regional ally, and the survival of the Assad regime is regarded as vital to sustaining the Iranian-backed Hizbollah militia which controls southern Lebanon.

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More News On Western Intelligence Reports That Iran's Supreme Leader Has Ordered Terror Attacks Against Western Targets

Iran's Supreme Leader Orders Fresh Terror Attacks On The West -- Business Insider
Iran’s Supreme Leader Seeks To Intensify Terror Attacks In West For Moves Against Assad: Report -- IBTimes
Report: Iran's supreme leader orders to intensify attacks against West -- Haaretz
Report: Khamenei calls for increased terror against West -- Jerusalem Post
Khamenei calls for more terror attacks on West -- YNet News

Is Iran Losing The "Shadow War" With The US And Israel

A suicide bombing against Israeli tourists in Bulgaria was a rare "success" for Iran's operatives. Photo: REUTERS

Analysis: Iran's Spies Are Losing The Shadow War With US And Israel -- Daily Beast

In Syria and around the world, Iran’s covert operatives are struggling.

The powerful Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, its infamous expeditionary unit, the Quds Force, and the network of Hezbollah operatives it supports around the world are starting to look like the proverbial gang that couldn’t shoot straight. They’re still dangerous, to be sure, but a series of recent incidents widely attributed to these groups suggest that as spies, assassins and terrorists, they just aren’t what they used to be. And Tehran is getting worried.

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My Comment: I hold a contrary opinion on Iran "losing" the covert war. From my vantage point they have put both Israel and the U.S. on notice on what they are capable of doing. They have shown to the world their military forces and their ability and determination to clsoe the Straits of Hormuz in the event of an attack, and they have strengthen their relationship with their allies (Hezbollah, Syria, etc.). And while doing all of this .... they have succeeded in having their nuclear program grow and expand.

Speculation In Russia And The Middle East On What Roles Will The U.S. And Israel Assume In Attacking Iran's Nuclear Facilities

Reuters / Issei Kato

US, Israel Arranging Roles In Iran War Theater? -- RT

Reports are surfacing of a US-Israeli plan to attack Iran’s ballistic missile batteries, giving Israel extra space to tackle Syria and Hezbollah. While no talks have been confirmed, anonymous sources claim that war plans have been put to paper.

­While it’s unclear how far-reaching the US and Israeli plans are, some say the allies have detailed intentions to destroy the Islamic Republic’s ballistic missiles – and let Israel launch an assault on Syria and Hezbollah to boot.

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Update: Wartime tasks split: US to smash Iran’s missiles, Israel tackle Syria, Hizballah -- Debka File

My Comment: I am deeply skeptical on the reliability of both reports .... in fact .... these reports are more fantasy than reality. But I posted them to illustrate what many in the Middle East and elsewhere are now believing is the war strategy against Iran's nuclear facilities .... and it is getting shrill.

Iran's Nuclear Program Will Be Delayed By Only Two Years If An Israeli Military Strike Occurs

Israeli Strike Would Only Delay Iran's Nuclear Program By Two Years -- Haaretz

Assessment holds that Iran's nuclear program would technically be set back by only a year, but it would likely take Iran another year on top of that to overcome side effects of the strike that would cause additional delays.

An Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities would delay its manufacture of nuclear weapons by no more than two years, according to the prevailing assessment.

This assessment holds that Iran's nuclear program would technically be set back by only a year. But it would likely take Iran another year on top of that to overcome side effects of the strike that would cause additional delays.

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My Comment: While it appears that Panetta has failed in convincing the Israelis to wait until sanctions have taken their effect .... Israel is now realizing that they cannot succeed in an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities unless the U.S. is directly involved.

My prediction on what is next .... and Iran's revolutionary commander is saying the same thing ..... expect an increase and escalation in the West's "soft war" against Iran.

Adviser: Romney Would Back Israeli Strikes On Iran

Romney Would Back Israeli Strikes on Iran, Adviser Says -- Wall Street Journal

JERUSALEM—Presidential hopeful Mitt Romney would support Israel if it launched strikes on Iran to halt its nuclear program, a senior campaign adviser said Sunday as he accompanied the candidate on a swing through Israel.

"If Israel has to take action on its own in order to stop Iran from developing that capability the governor would respect that decision," Dan Senor, a senior foreign-policy adviser to the Romney campaign, told reporters.

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Update: Aide sees Romney support for Israel strike on Iran -- Reuters

My Comment: Not to be outdone .... while US Presidential candidate Romney has endorsed Israeli plans to strike against Iran's nuclear facilities .... apparently the Obama administration has presented to Israel U.S. operational plans to attack Iran. It should be noted that officials have denied this story .... but National Security Adviser Tom Donilon was in Israel two weeks ago.

‘Hot War’ Erupting With Iran

‘Hot War’ Erupting With Iran, Top Terror-Watchers Warn -- Danger Room

ASPEN, Colorado — There have been acts of sabotage, assassinations, explosions, and cyberattack. But the increasingly violent shadow war between the U.S., Israel, Iran, and its allies haven’t hit targets on American soil — yet. That could change before too long, the administration’s current and former top analysts of terror threats warned.

“We’re seeing a general uptick in the level of activity around the world. Both Hezbollah and the [Iranian] Quods Force have demonstrated an ability to operate essentially globally,” Matt Olsen, director of the National Counterterrorism Center, told an audience of more than a hundred security professionals gathered here on Thursday.

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My Comment: According the Israeli President Peres .... Israel is already in an "open war" with Iran right now.

Another Sign That Iran Is Getting Ready For A Military Conflict

Iran Bolsters Retaliation Capability In Gulf, Experts Say -- Washington Post

Iran is rapidly gaining new capabilities to strike at U.S. warships in the Persian Gulf, amassing an arsenal of sophisticated anti-ship missiles while expanding its fleet of fast-attack boats and submarines, U.S. and Middle Eastern analysts say.

The new systems, many of them developed with foreign assistance, are giving Iran’s commanders new confidence that they could quickly damage or destroy U.S. ships if hostilities erupt, the officials say.

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My Comment: Like their nuclear program .... Iran is making steady progress in making their military a formidable force every year.

Is The U.S. (And It's Allies) Launching Cyberattacks To Gain Time Against Iran?

Stuxnet And Flame – Gaining Time For An Attack Against Iran? -- Defpro

Is the Cyber War Against Iran a Preliminary Stage to Further Military Action?

09:58 GMT, July 5, 2012 Threats by malware in the internet, such as computer viruses, worms and complex spyware are omnipresent. Each day new malware is being introduced into the Internet, with the potential to cause significant economical damage during the course of a year. Users who want to protect their computers against such attacks currently rely on anti-virus programmes, which autonomously update themselves to be able to automatically ward off even the latest threats. Unfortunately, many users take this protection technology for granted, to the extent that they no longer bother about the danger of attacks from the Web. Awareness of computer safety issues is mostly not sharpened until a virus attack occurs on the personal computer. But by then it is generally too late, and considerable damage to the computer (or, worse, an entire computer network) cannot be prevented.

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My Comment: A detailed analysis on cyber war and how it can lead to a more conventional conflict. In reference to Iran .... The strategy has always been one of buying time .... including launching cyber attacks.