3 Small Wars In Africa That Could Become The Next Vietnam

3 Small Wars That Could Become The Next Vietnam -- David Francis, Fiscal Times

The war in Afghanistan is drawing to a close, marking the end of more than a decade of continuous fighting in big, traditional conflicts. But even as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan wind down, the United States is already committing to a series of smaller engagements in Africa that have the dangerous potential to become larger conflicts.

The U.S. military has a presence in the Central African Republic, where U.S. special operators are assisting in the hunt for Ugandan warlord Joseph Kony. The Pentagon is building drone bases in Chad and Niger. In Nigeria, U.S. troops are training the local military to fight against the Muslim extremist group, Boko Haram. They’re also supporting the NATO mission in Mali and have drones flying over both Somalia and Kenya. From the Republic of Djibouti in the horn of Africa, U.S. troops coordinate missions across the continent.

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My Comment: I would also add Somalia, Darfur, Libya, DR Congo, etc. etc. etc.

Why The U.S. Prepares For War Against China

Preparing For War With China -- James Holmes, National Interest

For an operational concept that has never been published, the U.S. military’s AirSea Battle doctrine has elicited some fiery commentary. Or maybe it stokes controversy precisely because the armed forces haven’t made it official. Its details are subject to speculation. The chief source of information about it remains an unclassified, unofficial study published in 2010 by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.

The debate over AirSea Battle swirls mostly around technology and whether the doctrine is aimed at China. To answer the latter question first: Yes, it is about China. It has to be.

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My Comment: This is probably the best description that I have read on the U.S. military’s AirSea Battle doctrine. And while everyone is in agreement that war against China is not inevitable or let alone wanted, China' military is the most formidable opponent on the world stage today, and is the standard that the U.S. must measure up to. On the flip side .... I am sure that the Chinese (and everyone else) have doctrines and strategies on how to counter the U.S., and while they do not talk about it, those strategies and policies are there.

Where The U.S. Army Is Storing It's Combat Equipment Is Where It Anticipates The Next Conflicts Will Occur

An armored transport vehicle, known as an MRAP, at Forward Operating Base Goode near the town of Gardez in Afghanistan’s Paktia Province in July. Lucas Jackson/Reuters

Army’s Plans to Relocate Gear Offer Map to Future Roles -- New York Times

WASHINGTON — In a significant indication of where the Army anticipates it will be deployed over coming years, and what it will be doing there, the service is planning to relocate some of its vast overseas stores of combat equipment and alter the contents of other warehouse stocks to reflect the changing nature of the mission after the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Large numbers of MRAPs, the armored troop carriers built to withstand the blast of improvised explosives in Iraq and Afghanistan, would be stored in Italy, where they could be transported for contingencies across Africa. Those could include disaster relief in hostile environments, civilian evacuations or counterinsurgency assistance to local security forces.

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My Comment: Minus a big war .... Iran, North Korea, Middle East conflicts .... I can foresee US military forces engaging in many small conflicts in Africa. And then there is that pesky but continuous war against Al Qaeda and its affiliated groups.

Future Wars Will Be Longer And More Deadlier

DEFENSE MINISTERIAL - U.S. Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates attends the NATO and non-NATO International Security Assistance Force contributing nations meeting during the NATO formal Defense Ministerial in Brussels, Belgium, June 9, 2011. DOD photo by Cherie Cullen

Future Wars Seen As Longer, Deadlier -- Washington Times

Wider range of weapons, foes calls for different preparation, official says.

The wars of the future will be longer, deadlier and waged against a more diverse variety of enemies than ever before, and U.S. armed forces must be ready, Deputy Secretary of Defense William J. Lynn III said Wednesday.

Speaking to the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, Mr. Lynn identified what he called “three strategic trends” that are shaping “our future national security environment: lethality, duration and asymmetry.”

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More News On What Future Wars Will Be Like

US Becoming More Leery of Long Wars -- Voice of America
Lynn: U.S. Must Prepare for Future Warfare Trends -- U.S. Department of Defense
Pentagon Deputy: Your Future Wars Will Be Long Ones -- Spencer Ackerman, Danger Room
Pentagon's Inability to Predict the Future Makes It Tough to Set Budget Priorities -- National Defense

My Comment: With asymmetric warfare becoming the doctrine of choice for weaker rebel/military powers, it is not difficult to predict that longer wars will be the eventual outcome unless better tactics are developed/formulated to fight such wars.

Computers Model Will Predict Future Wars

Calculated Terror -- Foreign Policy

How a computer model predicts the future in some of the world's most volatile hotspots.

On Oct. 27, a Katyusha rocket was fired from Lebanon and struck down in an open area outside the northern Israeli town of Kiryat Shmone. This was the ninth such rocket strike since the end of the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah. No group claimed responsibility for the attack, but smaller Palestinian groups hoping to spark another round of fighting are the most likely suspect. Hezbollah, despite its extreme anti-Israel politics, did not join the fight, even after Israeli counterstrikes.

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My Comment: A friend of mine ask me this afternoon if I had any idea on where will the next "new" conflict/war erupt. Could not answer him properly, but I can now assume that with these computer models .... maybe (one day) certain predictions can then be made by using statistical and historical data.

Could the Economic Collapse Lead To A New Kind Of Warfare?

From Nukes And Spooks:

Today, the House Armed Services Committee is holding a hearing entitled Security Challenges Arising from the Global Financial Crisis. I realize this sounds like a lot of jargon but I found the topic and Chairman Ike Skelton's opening statement fascinating. The hearing is basically trying to tackle how the world economic collapse could affect U.S. national security, but not in the way we have come to think of that threat in the past few years.

I have spent the last six years reporting on the national security threat from rogue elements, usually operating in unstable states. My pieces focus on insurgencies and asymmetric warfare. Indeed, when the U.S. military talks about preparing for the future, it talks about counterinsurgencies and the need to stop groups from rising and plotting attacks against the United States, not wars fought along proper battle lines. But the hearing raises the question: What threat could proper states now pose to the United States because of the economic crisis?

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My Comment: Actually .... economic bad times will not lead to a "new kind" of war .... it will lead to the "usual kind" of war.... i.e. conventional armies from one country fighting against the conventional armies of another. Countries that are on this tinderbox today are North Korea, Pakistan, Iran, Syria, Hama-Hezbollah/Lebanon, Venezuela, Bolivia, Colombia and its neighbors, Ukraine, and half of Africa.

This is a thought provoking article that will probably receive more attention as the economic/financial crisis continues.