The Geopolitics Of Energy (A Discussion)

My Comment: A discussion on energy, security and the re-making of the modern world.

How Is The Financial Crisis And Budget Deficits Impacting Defense Spending?

Defence Spending In A Time Of Austerity -- The Economist

The chronic problem of exorbitantly expensive weapons is becoming acute.

THERE were the starlings: aerobatic teams with mesmerising group displays. There were the albatrosses: Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner and Airbus’s A380, heavy airliners that still manage long, effortless flight. And there were the buzzing propeller-driven military transporters, including the latest, the Airbus A400M. But the star turn was reserved for the birds of prey, the jet fighters.

Read more ....

My Comment: It always comes down to money. But with financial and budgetary deficits being forecast to be in the stratosphere for years to come, defense budgets and procurements are going to be cut. The Economist/IISS looks at these trends, and does a rather good job in analyzing what to expect.

Aviation Week has a good commentary on the IISS report.

But what caught my eye, was IISS's assertion that China now has more warships than the U.S. (see graph). Hmmmm .... that is going to raise eyebrows in a few places.

The CIA Predictioneer: Using Games To See The Future

Three decades of getting it right (Image: Ethan Hill/Contour by Getty Images)

From New Scientist:

MY HOROSCOPE this week says that now is the perfect time to relocate, or at least de-clutter. I know it's nonsense, but I can't help wishing there was a genuine way to predict the future.

Perhaps there is. One self-styled "predictioneer" believes he has found the answer. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a professor of politics at New York University and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University in California. In his new book, The Predictioneer (The Predictioneer's Game in the US), he describes a computer model based on game theory which he - and others - claim can predict the future with remarkable accuracy.

Read more ....

My Comment: I have a "wealthy" Korean friend who manages money. He uses models to predict geopolitical and economic trends .... and he also has a 90% success rate. Unfortunately .... he has not shared this wealth of knowledge with me on how to make money, but he has shared with me one piece of information on how he does it .... his secret is that he reads everything.

There is some validity to this point. I have been following wars and conflicts for the better part of 20 years .... and I read everything. This blog was initially created to categorize and summarize these conflicts, wars, and military/political trends. It has been an interesting ride .... but one of the side effects from doing all of this work is that my instincts on predicting future wars, geopolitical events, and military trends are now very good .... maybe even close to 90%.

Now if I can get the math down pat in a mathematical model .... wow .... my success rate will be close to 100%, and governments and corporations will be willing to pay me gazillions of dollars for my private consultation instead of reading it for free in this blog.

Yeah right .... sighhhh .... you can tell that I am dreaming.

Report: U.S. Dominance And Influence Predicted To Fade

From The FOX News:

Alarming government report predicts environmental catastrophe, threat of nuclear war and the decline of America as the dominant global power by 2025.

The next two decades will see a world living with the daily threat of nuclear war, environmental catastrophe and the decline of America as the dominant global power, according to a frighteningly bleak assessment by the U.S. intelligence community.

"The world of the near future will be subject to an increased likelihood of conflict over resources, including food and water, and will be haunted by the persistence of rogue states and terrorist groups with greater access to nuclear weapons," said the report by the National Intelligence Council.

Read more ....

Click here to read the report in full

My Comment: I have been reading these types of reports since the 1970s. They just take what is the popular news story for the moment, and then wrap it up into their report. In short .... they are just professionals who get paid just regurgitating what they read in The New York Times (and other such publications), and compiled it into a report. I should know .... I was employed doing this 20 years ago. My specialty was environment impacts, and the client was the Canadian Federal Government.

In the 1970s it was shortages in food and energy, a result of overpopulation. The 1980s was acid rain and nuclear proliferation. The 1990s was a peace dividend and continuing prosperity. The 2000 period will be remembered as the internet age and global warming.

The next decade .... I predict that the next decade will be a period of economic and financial turmoil and crisis. Wow .... I guess that makes me a (cough cough) prophet.