Has America Lost Its Nerve Abroad?

An armoured U.S. Marine vehicle is enveloped in smoke after it was hit by an IED roadside bomb attack during a patrol of Now Zad district in Helmand province, southwestern Afghanistan. (Erik De Castro/Reuters)

How America Lost Its Nerve Abroad -- Michael Hirsh, The Atlantic

Policymakers used to believe in a forceful projection of American authority. But after debacles in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, they are turning inward.

KABUL, Afghanistan -- Much as Baghdad once did, this city feels like an outpost of American imperialism. There's the familiar "green zone," the checkpoints you have to zigzag through, the armored convoys roaring by in clouds of dust, their IED jammers poking up like peacock tails.

But all of this vast presence is focused on one task: getting out.

Across Kabul -- and out in the provinces of Afghanistan -- U.S. military advisers are developing the Afghan securities forces as carefully and tenderly as a mother lion nurtures her cubs into killers. Afghanistan is one of the poorest and most corrupt nations in the world, but the newborn Afghan National Army isn't getting second-rate surplus equipment, the usual fare for Third World client states. The Pentagon ordered up from Textron new armored troop carriers, worth $1 million apiece, that are so state of the art Canada bought 500 of them for its own army. "They provide the same protection as we have for our vehicles," says John Simpson, Textron's team leader.

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My Comment: This is an excellent analysis. My must read post for today.

U.S. Foreign Policy Is Making A Mess In The Mideast

Secretary of State John Kerry met Tuesday with Sultan Qaboos bin Said al Said, Oman’s ruler, at the royal palace in Muscat. Pool photo by Jim Young

John Kerry’s Silly Play -- Lee Smith, The Tablet

The secretary of state prattles about imaginary treaties while the Arab world is engulfed by a Sunni-Shia civil war

Secretary of State John Kerry says that’s it’s now or never for Israelis and Palestinians to reach agreement on a two-state solution. Interestingly, neither Israeli nor Palestinian officials have any idea what Kerry is talking about. With the Arab Spring uprisings tilting the Middle East status quo on behalf of Israel’s enemies, Jerusalem is not about to give up the West Bank—nor is the Palestinian Authority in any position to defend it. Little wonder then that an Israeli official recently told Haaretz, that Kerry “looks like a naive and ham-handed diplomat.”

But of course, Kerry’s public statements have little connection to workable diplomacy. Rather, the secretary of state is the leading man in a theatrical production about American Middle East policy whose only audience members, at this point, are Beltway pundits.

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My Comment: A brutal assessment on U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. The 'money quote' is the following ....

.... Having exited Iraq, packed up our gear in Afghanistan, abandoned our “red lines” about Iran’s nuclear program and Syria’s use of chemical weapons, America has gone from player to kibitzer.

Ouch.

In short .... from President Obama's Cairo speech in 2009 to today's mayhem on the Arab street .... the U.S. has lost it's credibility. And while it is easy to heap disappointment (and blame) on this U.S. administration .... events are spiraling out of control on the ground .... events that no one can really control.  Lee Smith in the above commentary is correct when he states that what we are now witnessing in the Middle East is a growing Sunni - Shiite sectarian conflict that is slowly metastasizing into all-out war .... a war that no one can really stop .... but what is unfortunate is that in this environment we have a U.S. that is completely unprepared to face this new reality, and instead is pursuing policies that are (probably) decades out of date.

Update: More indications that U.S. diplomacy on Syria is falling apart .... Syrian rebels, U.S. disagree on peace talks.

Does The White House Know What To Do Next In Syria?

Obama Appears At A Loss To Define The Way Forward In Syria -- Major Garrett, National Journal

President Obama did not start the Syrian crisis, and the blood-soaked civil war has never lent itself to easy choices. In fact, the choices have always been among the hardest any U.S. president has faced in the region.

Syria is more than a country, and its civil war is more than a brutal and bloody story of a dictatorial regime pulverizing a largely defenseless civilian population. Syria sits at a strategic crossroads and has for decades been the conduit of cash and operational expertise linking meddlesome Iran to the east with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.

Obama ran and won on ending the Iraq war and has never had an interest in starting one in neighboring Syria. Neither, for that matter, have U.S. allies Jordan and Israel. For two years, Obama and the Israelis and Jordanians have calculated that Syria's regime--led by Bashir Assad--would cave to outside pressure and not choose ruination for his country's cities, its history, and its people.

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My Comment: Syria's civil war has been ongoing for over two years .... and during this time the U.S. has gone through great lengths to stay out of the conflict. But doubts on what to do next are now starting to surface .... and it is clear from President Obama's recent news conference the administration is unsure on what to do next.

Is President Obama Politicizing Intelligence?

The Obama Administration's Troubling History Of Politicizing Intelligence -- Kori Schake, Shadow Government/Foreign Policy

For months, the Obama administration has been avoiding the conclusion that the Assad government used chemical weapons in its armed struggle to suppress its citizens. As recently as yesterday, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel rebuffed the notion, saying "suspicions are one thing; evidence is another."

Today the White House finally conceded the point. "Our intelligence community does assess with varying degrees of confidence that the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons on a small scale in Syria, specifically the chemical agent Sarin," the administration wrote in a letter to Congress.

But even now, the White House is insisting it needs to gather the facts and called for a U.N. investigation, a convenient method of continuing to stall on Syria.

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My Comment: President Bush was accused of politicizing intelligence on Iraq .... having to then endure years of Democrat and media/pundit criticisms for the decisions that he made. But for this President and how he has politicized intelligence .... nothing .... not even a whimper.

Because the U.S. public has zero interest to get involved in another Middle East war .... President Obama will be getting a pass on how he has managed this crisis. Unfortunately .... his credibility on the international stage is now "shot" .... his "red lines" have been revealed for what they are .... threats with no substance behind it.

As a result of this perception .... I predict that countries like North Korea and Iran will feel even more embolden to continue with their WMD programs and to continue issuing even more threats to their neighbors. And as for those who are being threatened .... Israel being the first country that comes to my mind .... they will now probably pursue a more independent path that will not involve the U.S. in their decision making process .... a dangerous precedent because if our allies do initiate independent military actions, I doubt that the U.S. can stay out of it for long.

The Global Consequences Of An American Withdrawal

American Withdrawal and Global Disorder -- Eliot Cohen, Wall Street Journal

As Obama ends U.S. security guarantees, nuclear weapons and violence will spread.

Since the days of the Monroe Doctrine, American foreign policy has rested on a global system of explicit or implicit commitments to use military power to guarantee the interests of the U.S. and its allies. The current administration has chosen to reduce, limit or underfund those commitments, and the results—which we may begin to see before President Obama's term ends—will be dangerous.

Some of America's commitments are enshrined in treaties, such as Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty, which says of NATO's 28 member countries that "an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all." Other commitments are less formal. The U.S. has no defense treaty with Israel, but repeated presidential declarations, including those Mr. Obama will make during his trip this week, amount to nearly the same thing.

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My Comment: A sobering assessment .... read it all.

Global Risks As The U.S. Retreats

The Risks of Retreat -- Michael Gerson, Real Clear World

WASHINGTON -- Declining national influence is a choice, and America seems to be making it.

What foreign policy practitioners politely call the "churn" of events is beginning to look more like chaos. Egypt teeters between the establishment of a democracy and the restoration of the caliphate. Syria melts away as an organized state and perhaps as a geographic fact. Iran is on the verge of building the Shiite bomb and igniting a sectarian nuclear arms race (and you thought a purely ideological nuclear arms race was scary).

North Korea continues its bold experiment in proliferation and abnormal psychology.

And beneath it all, some large trends: In the Middle East and North Africa, a combination of economic stagnation, a youth bulge and a sense of historical grievance -- all the preconditions for radicalism and terrorism. In Asia, the rapid reversal of 250 years of Western economic and technological predominance, which is raising questions about America's future military predominance.

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My Comment: Here is my prediction ..... future historians will look at the sequestration of the U.S. military budget as this decade's most stunning geopolitical development .... and the consequences of these decisions will be felt worldwide for the rest of this century.

No Global Strategy From The White House (Commentary)

President Barack Obama receives an update on the ongoing response to Hurricane Sandy, in the Situation Room of the White House, Oct. 29 2012.

The Problem With Drones -- Richard Fernandez, PJ Media

The New York Times says that the administration has decided to build missile defense systems to defend against possible nuclear missile attacks from North Korea.

WASHINGTON — The Pentagon will spend $1 billion to deploy additional ballistic missile interceptors along the Pacific Coast to counter the growing reach of North Korea’s weapons, a decision accelerated by Pyongyang’s recent belligerence and indications that Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, is resisting China’s efforts to restrain him.


It’ll take two years to get the defense sites up, though. The administration was apparently relying on China to defend it; to ‘handle’ North Korea. Now that this has failed it is building a “bullet to hit a bullet”: missile defense.

“There’s been a quickening pace of provocations,” said one senior administration official, describing actions and words from North Korea and its new leader, Mr. Kim. “But the real accelerant was the fact that the North Koreans seemed more unmoored from their Chinese handlers than even we had feared.”

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My Comment: Richard Fernandez is one of my favorite bloggers .... and he does not disappoint in this post.

The New World Disorder

President Obama with Chuck Hagel and John Brennan, January 7, 2013

The New World Disorder -- Victor Davis Hanson, NRO

With a diminished team at State, Defense, and the CIA, Obama can be Obama.

John Brennan, Chuck Hagel, and John Kerry will be confirmed. The three will provide a force-multiplying effect on the Obama foreign policy of disengagement. The chameleon Brennan will be very different from David Petraeus at the CIA; Hagel is no circumspect Leon Panetta; and there was a reason why the appointment of Hillary Clinton as secretary of state was greeted with praise in a way John Kerry’s will not be. The trio is less competent than their predecessors, but also perhaps more representative of a country on its way to a $20 trillion national debt and a “lead from behind” foreign policy of managed decline.

Let us take stock of the world since 2008. Reset with Russia was an abject failure; and relations with Vladimir Putin have never been frostier — and pettier, as even the U.S. adoption of Russian orphans has now ended. Nothing is more counterproductive than to lecture a proud rival nation from a position of looming financial and military weakness.

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My Comment: Victor Davis Hanson is one of my favorite pundits .... and he excels in this post. Read it all.

America Is No Longer The World's 'Policeman'

America Steps Back as Global Policeman -- George Friedman, Stratfor

Last week, U.S. President Barack Obama announced that the United States would transfer the primary responsibility for combat operations in Afghanistan to the Afghan military in the coming months, a major step toward the withdrawal of U.S. forces. Also last week, France began an intervention in Mali designed to block jihadists from taking control of the country and creating a base of operations in France's former African colonies.

The two events are linked in a way that transcends the issue of Islamist insurgency and points to a larger geopolitical shift. The United States is not just drawing down its combat commitments; it is moving away from the view that it has the primary responsibility for trying to manage the world on behalf of itself, the Europeans and its other allies. Instead, that burden is shifting to those who have immediate interests involved.

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My Comment: George Friedman's analysis on this U.S. geopolitical shift is spot on. This is a long essay, but well worth the read.

Update: Frank J. Gaffney Jr. has a similar commentary on this theme of "America in decline" that is also worth a read .... A world without America.

Vogue Editor Anna Wintour For US Ambassador To Syria

Photo: Anna Wintour at the Twenty8Twelve fashion show in London, September 22, 2009. Wikipedia

Springtime For Assad -- James Taranto, Wall Street Journal

Why not Wintour for Syria?

We are beginning to doubt whether Bashar Assad is a genuine reformer. Our latest clue comes from NBC News, which reported yesterday that "the Syrian military is prepared to use chemical weapons against its own people and is awaiting final orders from [dictator] Assad."

As of yesterday, "the nerve agents were locked and loaded inside the bombs," which "could be dropped onto the Syrian people from dozens of fighter-bombers," according to the NBC report. "U.S. officials stressed that as of now, the sarin bombs hadn't been loaded onto planes and that Assad hadn't issued a final order to use them." Well, that's a relief. Or not: "If he does [give the order], one of the officials said, 'there's little the outside world can do to stop it.' "

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My Comment: I do not think she will accept such a post.

More Foreign Policy Challenges In A Second Obama Term

5 Overlooked Foreign Policy Challenges Of Obama’s Second Term -- Hayes Brown, Think Progress

As President Obama’s electoral victory continues to sink in, many have already begun to refocus on the many foreign policy issues overshadowed by the race for the White House. Most rapid analysis has focused on those items that always seem to top such lists: ongoing issues in the Middle East, the winding down of the war in Afghanistan, and possible confrontations with China. Rather than rehashing those matters, here’s five issues that while they may be less discussed will definitely help shape Obama’s second term:

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My Comment: I agree with Mexico, African pivot, and the Euro zone. Strengthening international law and nuclear disarmament .... in my opinion that is not going to happen in view of the makeup of the US Senate who will be needed to ratify such treaties.

Will We Always Be At War?

The nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Enterprise conducts an underway replenishment with the Military Sealift Command fast combat support ship USNS Supply in the Persian Gulf, Oct. 4, 2007, while the guided-missile destroyer USS Arleigh Burke and the guided-missile cruiser USS Vicksburg follow behind. Enterprise and embarked Carrier Air Wing One are currently underway on a scheduled six-month deployment. U.S. Navy photo by Petty Officer 3rd Class N.C. Kaylor

'A Period Of Persistent Conflict' -- Micah Zenko, Foreign Policy

Why the United States will never have another peacetime president.

In January 2007, with no public debate, congressional hearings, or news coverage, the United States intervened militarily in another country: Somalia.

On December 24, 2006, supported by U.S. tactical intelligence, military training, and "less than a dozen" special operations forces on the ground, Ethiopia had invaded Somalia with the goal of unseating the ruling Council of Islamic Courts (CIC). As the Ethiopian ground offensive quickly overwhelmed CIC defenses surrounding the capital of Mogadishu, Somali militants and al-Qaeda affiliates fled south. Some were tracked by U.S. Predator drones and cell phone intercepts.

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My Comment: I concur .... the U.S. is now in an era of persistent conflict.

Is America's Policy Towards Syria A 'Display Of Amateurism' For The World To See?

American Amateurism On Display In Syria -- Rami G. Khouri, The Daily Star

A famous American coloring shampoo advertisement years ago used the effective slogan, referring to whether or not the woman in the ad dyed her hair, “Does she or doesn’t she?” The same question can be asked today about Hilary Clinton’s attitude to the Syrian opposition and the uprising to overthrow President Bashar Assad’s regime. Does she or doesn’t she truly support the uprising? To judge by her comments a few days ago that the U.S. will no longer view the Syrian National Council as the leading opposition group and instead wants to help shape a new coalition of groups to finish the job of removing Assad from power, the truth is that we really do not know the answer to that question. Now the U.S. is working with Qatar and the Arab League to hold a gathering in Doha this week to shape a new coalition of opposition groups that more credibly represents “those who are on the front lines, fighting and dying today to obtain their freedom ... the Syrian National Council can no longer be viewed as the visible leader of the opposition ... the opposition must include people from inside Syria and others who have a legitimate voice that needs to be heard.”

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My Comment: U.S. policy towards Syria has not been "American amateurism on display in Syria", but a deliberate attempt to stay out of that conflict. On the one hand I am relieved that we have not been sucked into this conflict. On the other hand .... as recent comments by Sec. of State Clinton have revealed .... there is a move underway to change U.S. policy when it comes to the Syrian civil war .... a change that will probably be revealed in more detail after the US Presidential election.

Global Security Challenges Await The Next President

Numerous Global Security Challenges Await Next President -- Voice of America

PENTAGON — With much of the Middle East in turmoil, the possibility of a war over Iran’s nuclear program, and a growing al-Qaida threat in Africa, the global security challenges facing the U.S. president in the next four years are huge. President Barack Obama and his challenger, Mitt Romney, are presenting different approaches in the final days before Americans go to the polls.

For Obama, there have been security triumphs.

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My Comment: Forget about the global challenges .... there are enough national challenges that will await the next President.

The Case For Cutting-Off Aid To Egypt

Give Egypt's Aid Money to Libya -- Michael Totten, Wall Street Journal

Consider how differently the governments in each country have behaved in the last couple of weeks.

The U.S. Senate voted down a bill this weekend that would have frozen aid money to Pakistan, Egypt and Libya. The bill's sponsor, Republican Sen. Rand Paul, was right that Egypt no longer deserves American aid. But Libya does. Libya needs help, and it needs help right now. Libya should not only continue receiving the aid it's already slated to get from Washington. Libya should also get Egypt's.

Consider how differently the governments in each country have behaved in the last couple of weeks.

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My Comment: Michael Totten has also written a post on how a proper U.S. ally should act. That commentary is here.

Update: U.S. plan for emergency Egypt aid hits roadblock -- Reuters

Should We Do Business With Despots?

Doing Business With Despots? -- Walter Pincus, Washington Post

The United States has been quietly deepening relationships in Central Asia, but in the process is embracing two authoritarian, lifetime presidents who don’t have great records on human rights. The State Department has repeatedly criticized both for those records and for their generally harsh treatment of domestic opponents.

In carrying out a policy that began during the George W. Bush administration, President Obama appears to be rewarding the dictatorial leaders of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan for their short-term assistance in Afghanistan and the fight against terrorism. At the same time, Washington seems to be seeking potential long-term footholds in these two countries, which are adjacent to Russia, China and Iran.

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My Comment: Fortunately .... there are a lesser number of despots today than a few decades ago. But unfortunately .... many of these despotic regimes and/or stateless organizations are in possession of weaponry that can bring great harm and carnage to millions. To contain these dangerous situations .... treaties and security agreements coupled with private understandings has forced the West to unfortunately align itself with some unsavory regimes .... the best of some very bad choices.

Foreign Policy Is A Plus For President Obama, So Why The Silence?

President Barack Obama, along with Vice President Joe Biden, meets with members of his national security team for a monthly meeting on Afghanistan in the Situation Room of the White House, June 6, 2011. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

Ignoring Foreign Policy Won’t Make It Go Away -- Michael Gerson, Washington Post

President Obama has avoided the traditional Democratic reputation for foreign policy weakness by emulating his predecessor in one narrow but important respect. Obama has not only continued George W. Bush’s global war on terrorism — whatever it is currently called — but has also expanded its scope and lethality. The legal and physical infrastructure of the conflict, from the Patriot Act to Guantanamo Bay, remains in place. The mommy party, in this instance, has become daddy with a drone and a hit list.

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My Comment: When President Obama was elected in 2008, I commented on a number of occasions that President Obama will be focusing on national issues .... not international. Guess what .... I was wrong.

On international issues he has (for better or worse) made his mark. He has respected the Bush timetable to get out of Iraq, but he has escalated the war against Al Qaeda and it's affiliated groups through the use of drone strikes. He has now set a timetable to get out of Afghanistan after conducting his own mini-surge two years ago, but he has also embarked on a large number of low-key military operations .... from targeting Al Qaeda in Yemen and Somalia to offering assistance to Nigeria to combat radical Islamists. The State Department has also been busy, and while it does not have the budget or clout of the Pentagon, it is having an impact by influencing policy in places like Burma, Pakistan, and toughening (albeit lately) sanctions against Iran.

But even with these "successes", he has had his numerous failures (Russia reset, Iran sanctions, North Korea, etc...), and it is probably because of these failures that he is not spreading that message in his campaign .... for now.

As to Michael Gerson's assertion that President Obama is just kicking the can down the road on many foreign policy issues .... I will have to disagree. Sometimes it's best to sit back and look at certain conflicts (Syria is one that is coming to mind right now), and decide not to get into such a chaotic mess ASAP. Take your time, gather intelligence, form a coalition under your leadership, and then act if your own security is threatened.

Wisdom From The Retiring US Envoy To Afghanistan

Ryan C. Crocker, the departing ambassador to Afghanistan, says American policy makers had “better do some cold calculating.” Bryan Denton for The New York Times

Retiring Envoy to Afghanistan Exhorts U.S To Heed Its Past -- New York Times

KABUL, Afghanistan — The American diplomat most associated with the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan says that American policy makers need to learn the lessons of the recent past as they weigh military options for the future, including for Syria and Iran:

¶ Remember the law of unintended consequences.

¶ Recognize the limits of the United States’ actual capabilities.

¶ Understand that getting out of a conflict once you are in can often be dangerous and as destructive for the country as the original conflict.

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My Comment: Will his advice be listened to .... probably not.

Useful Idiots

Nancy Pelosi meets with Bashar Assad in 2007

Assad’s Useful Idiots -- Noah Glyn, NRO

American policymakers tried to negotiated with the Assad regime for too long.

How to depose Syrian dictator Bashar Assad in a clean fashion has become a pressing question for the international community. How strange that, not so long ago, the question for them was how to convince Assad to join forces with the West. Along the way, many American policymakers worked strenuously to bring him into the fold, as they heaped praise befitting a statesman on the brutal tyrant.

In a recent column, the Wall Street Journal’s Bret Stephens recounted some of the paeans to Assad: In a March 2011 interview, Hillary Clinton implied that Assad was a “reformer.” In 2007, Nancy Pelosi, over strong objections from the State Department, visited Syria, and said, “The road to Damascus is a road to peace.” Senator John Kerry predicted that “Syria will change as it embraces a legitimate relationship with the United States.”

The record of American policymakers’ failures to talk the Assad regime out of its iniquity is long indeed.

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My Comment: Both political parties have been guilty of exploring diplomatic avenues to accommodate some of the most vile leaders of the 21srt century .... but it seems that we have have surpassed ourselves in the past few years .... the case file on US efforts to accommodate Assad is a case in point. The road to hell is usually paced with good intentions .... our road to reach an understanding with the Assad family of Syria is one of those roads.

On a side note .... Soviet communists invented a specific term for this behavior .... useful idiots .... that even though atrocity followed by atrocity was committed .... these "useful idiots" choose to ignore it.

A Commentary On The Need To Develop A Smart And Forward US Foreign-Military Policy

U.S. sailors man the rails aboard the USS Nimitz as it passes the USS Arizona Memorial in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, to participate in the biennial Rim of the Pacific 2012 exercise, July 2, 2012. U.S. Navy photo by Seaman Keith W. DeVinney

A Plea for Smart, Forward U.S. Military Engagement -- Michèle Flournoy and Janine Davidson, The Diplomat

The recent global economic downturn has generated doubts about American resilience and our ability to lead in the world. Far from being a nation in decline, however, the United States’ global standing remains unmatched and the imperative for it to lead in today’s tumultuous environment is clear. Those who assume that in order to recover economically the United States must close its overseas bases and bring its military forces home misunderstand the role the U.S. military plays in promoting global prosperity. The United States has benefited enormously from a highly interdependent and globalized economy – one that has relied on the security and stability underwritten by our armed forces and our alliances for over 70 years. In this context, we simply cannot divorce “American” interests from “global” interests or otherwise opt out of the system economically or militarily.

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My Comment: It is hard to push a robust foreign policy when many in America are becoming more and more isolationist. What's my take .... the world is in a mess .... and so are we. Let us fix our house first before we start running around and fixing the home of everyone else.