Intrigue In North Korea

Pyongyang Palace Intrigue -- Nicholas Eberstadt, New York Times

North Korea’s recent nuclear brinkmanship is a sign not of strength but of weakness. No matter how hard this Communist dynasty tries to conceal this fact from the outside world, problems at home — especially strains within the regime itself — are an important factor behind its aggressive external behavior.

The regime’s current woes are largely the handiwork of Kim Jong-il, who died almost a year and a half ago. He was not just a bad ruler, but a disastrous one. He was the mastermind behind the epic failure of North Korea’s economy, which, on his watch, recorded the worst performance of any industrialized state. And he was the architect of the only peacetime famine ever to befall an urban, literate society. Most of that disaster’s victims were officially designated members of “hostile classes,” or enemies of the state, so the regime hardly mourned their deaths. But Kim Jong-il’s tenure was ruinous for the entire regime, including his presumptive legatees.

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My Comment: This is one of the best analysis on North Korea that I have read in a long time. Read it all.

If North Korea Launches 2 Musudan Missiles, What Should The U.S. Do?

What The US Should Do If North Korea Launches 2 Musudan Missiles -- Van Hipp, FOX News

After successful recent ballistic and nuclear bomb tests, North Korea has threatened the United States with nuclear strikes. This week, the Pyongyang regime stated that the Korean Peninsula is headed for thermo-nuclear war, told foreign diplomats to leave North Korea and advised foreigners to leave South Korea. Today, it has two medium range Musudan-1 missiles prepared for immediate launch from its east coast.

It’s decision time on North Korea.

What should the U.S. do if, as expected, North Korea goes ahead and launches the two Musudan-1 missiles?

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My Comment: What's my prediction .... the U.S. and their allies are going to do nothing .... even if these missiles land on Japan or Guam.

North Korea Has Been Fearful Of A U.S. Nuclear Attack For Decades

Can Hope Replace North Korea's Fears? -- Christian Science Monitor

The escalation of fear between North Korea and the US reveals the danger of relying too much on fear of retaliatory nuclear attacks as a strategy for defense. The difficult task of replacing North Korea's fears with hopes of peace and prosperity must continue.

Those Americans who may be fearful of North Korea’s verbal threats and its missile-launch preparations should take note: Its leaders have long expressed a fear of an American nuclear attack.

This fear by three successive leaders from the Kim family in Pyongyang helped pushed them to develop atomic bombs. Now the regime’s threat to attack the United States defies the very logic of the nuclear age – namely, that states with nuclear weapons would always act rationally because of the risk of massive retaliation, or “assured destruction.”

As historian Ward Wilson points out in a new book, “Five Myths About Nuclear Weapons,” atomic bombs “were born out of fear, nurtured in and sustained by fear.” Their power to devastate requires a mutual fear to avoid their use.

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My Comment: I think they are more fearful of their own people than what the U.S. may (or may not) do. After-all .... they certainly do not want to end up like Gaddafi, Saddam Hussein, etc..

Will North Korea Attack South Korea?

Ex-CIA Analyst Expects North Korea to Attack South Korea Before Tensions End -- Spencer Ackerman, Danger Room

Unless North Korea wants to be annihilated, its leadership has to find a way to climb down from its current wave of provocative rhetoric. But one of the CIA’s former top Pyongyang analysts thinks dictator Kim Jong-un will order a limited strike on South Korea — as a way to actually tamp down hostilities.

“North Korea will launch an attack,” predicts Sue Mi Terry, a Columbia University professor who served as a senior analyst on North Korea at the CIA from 2001 to 2008. The attack won’t be nuclear, she thinks, nor will it be a barrage from the massive amounts of artillery Pyongyang has aimed south.

Instead, Terry believes, “it will be something sneaky and creative and hard to definitively trace back to North Korea to avoid international condemnation and immediate retaliation from Washington or Seoul.” This, she thinks, is what counts as de-escalation in 2013 from the new regime in Pyongyang: a relatively small attack that won’t leave many people dead.

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My Comment: The North Korean leadership needs to "save face" .... by continuing to escalate the rhetoric and threats they have now put themselves in a very difficult position .... they must now act or lose credibility. For the new leader in North Korea .... losing credibility is not the position that you want to find yourself in.

Update: This is possible.

Risk Of Accidental War Grows On the Korean Peninsula

South Korean soldiers patrol along a barbed-wire fence, near the demilitarized zone (DMZ) which separates the two Koreas in Paju, north of Seoul, April 5, 2013.

As Koreas Face Off, Risk of Accidental War Grows -- Voice of America/Reuters

At the North Korean Embassy in London, they are answering the phone but saying little.

"As far as we know, we are not giving any statements," a North Korean official told Reuters, declining to give his name and saying all necessary information was already available on the website of the North Korean state news agency KCNA.

In fact, the world, well beyond Asia, is perplexed by the mysteries of the nuclear-capable state's bellicosity and many fear mutual ignorance could help turn words into acts of war.

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My Comment: All military forces are now on heightened military alert throughout the region. It will only take a "small incident" to quickly escalate into something far worse.

Is There A Power Struggle Behind The Scenes In North Korea?

Do North Korea’s Threats Mask Power Struggle Behind The Scenes? -- Matthew Schofield and Tom Lasseter, McClatchy Newspapers

WASHINGTON — The North Korean army warned the United States on Wednesday it has been cleared to wage nuclear war using “smaller, lighter and diversified weapons.”

In a speech earlier in the day, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel noted that North Korea has both the nuclear weapons and the delivery system “now.”

It’s the latest round in an escalation of rhetoric and actions that began with a North Korean nuclear test in February. Still, military officials and experts don’t expect North Korea to launch an attack on the United States. In fact, they label such an attack as suicidal, and note that while North Korea has had one almost successful test launch of an intercontinental missile, and carried out their third apparently successful nuclear test explosion, it is thought they still only have the materials for perhaps 10 weapons, and they have yet to prove their missile works with a nuclear warhead.

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My Comment: I have to concur with this assessment. What is happening right now in North Korea has more to do with North Korean internal politics than what the North Korean government may feel towards the U.S., South Korea, or anyone else. But this is why the situation is dangerous. Osama Bin Laden felt that the only way that he could defeat the Saudi Royal family was to drag the U.S. into a shooting war against him .... hence 9/11. There may be some in North Korea who may feel that the only way to keep their grip on power is to instigate a conflict with South Korean and the U.S. .... hence all the talk of war and threats of nuclear attack. This is all just speculation, but I do know that when people in absolute power feel that their status is being threatened .... they are capable of anything. In the case of North Korea .... they are truly the last "Stalinist" regime .... and they all know that.

Why Current Tensions With North Korea Is 'Scary'

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un says nuclear weapons are the "life" of his nation. (KCNA)

Why North Korea Regime Is Scary -- Scott A. Snyder, Special to CNN

(CNN) -- North Korea, under its untested young leader Kim Jong Un, has ratcheted up the threats toward South Korea and the United States to unprecedented levels and with greater intensity than ever before.

A torrent of threats has flowed from North Korean spokesmen, including a promise of preemptive nuclear strikes on the United States and calls to "break the waists of the crazy enemies, totally cut their windpipes and thus clearly show them what a real war is like."

North Korean brinkmanship, bluff, and bluster are stock elements in its diplomatic toolkit, but why have the threats become so outsized, and how worried should we be? Is North Korea playing the same game it has always played, or does the now-nuclear playbook of a rash young leader represent a new threat the we cannot afford to ignore?

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My Comment: There is no question that the U.S. strategy towards North Korea has changed in the past few weeks .... eclipsing Iran as the world's #1 nuclear-arms threat.

Update: The following two must read commentaries explore the possibility that North Korea is NOT bluffing ....

1) Who Says North Korea Is Bluffing? -- Jacob Heilbrunn, National Interest
2) Think Again: North Korea. North Korea is a lot more dangerous than you think, but that doesn't mean that Kim Jong Un is insane. -- David Kang and Victor Cha, Foreign Policy

War On The Korean Peninsula Unlikely

North Korea's artillery sub-units, whose mission is to strike Daeyeonpyeong island and Baengnyeong island of South Korea, conduct a live shell firing drill in this picture released on March 14, 2013. (Reuters/KCNA)

Serious Armed Clash On The Korean Peninsula Unlikely -- Andrei Lankov, East Asia Forum

If the world media is to be believed, the Korean Peninsula is now on the brink of war. Indeed, over the last few days the North Korean government has been engaged in some seriously bellicose rhetoric.

The DPRK stated that it withdrew from the armistice treaty on 11 March 2013 and cut the phone hotline between Pyongyang and Seoul. It also withdrew from its non-aggression pact with South Korea. Meanwhile, Rodong Sinmun, the mouthpiece of the North Korean government, ran an editorial in which it stated that the glorious North Korean army, newly equipped with world-class nuclear weapons and missiles, would transform both Seoul and Washington into seas of fire — presumably as soon as the supreme commander gets around to giving the relevant order. According to reports from North Korea itself, the populations of major cities are undergoing frequent, high-intensity air raid drills.

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My Comment: I hope to God that Andrei Lankov is right.

Planning For A Failed Nuclear State In North Korea

The US Army Is Planning For A Failed Nuclear State In North Korea -- Business Insider

Don't mind the headlines.

Crippling sanctions, starving soldiers, and an antiquated, rickety military collectively push the idea of a concerted North Korean strike to the fringes of credibility.

Planners in Washington envision a more insidious threat: the untimely collapse of Kim Jong-un's government.

Paul McLeary of Defense News posted today about a classified military wargame that played out the sudden collapse of North Korea and the immediate actions of the U.S. Military.

McLeary writes:

The Unified Quest war game conducted this year by Army planners posited the collapse of a nuclear-armed, xenophobic, criminal family regime that had lorded over a closed society and inconveniently lost control over its nukes as it fell.


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My Comment: North Korea is not going to be like East Germany when the Berlin Wall fell .... the German's were ready for reunification (to a point), but today's Korea is definitely not. If anything .... the South Koreans are hesitant about reunification .... especially when they look at how expensive it has become for West Germany to absorb East Germany .... a prospect that I am sure is not at all appetizing for the South Korean taxpayer.

But there are bigger issues involved .... and when it comes to North Korea it is it's WMD stockpiles. There is no doubt in my mind that it will be an immense undertaking to secure these stockpiles, and while I do expect South Korea to provide the necessary manpower and resources to do this job, the U.S. military with it's expertise will need to also get involved .... and involved very quickly.

In short .... and this is an easy prediction .... it is not going to be 'pretty'.

Escape From North Korea

This Young Woman Escaped From North Korea And Gave An Incredible TED Talk About It -- Business Insider

Growing up in North Korea, Hyeonseo Lee believed her life — witnessing public executions, studying the history of Kim Il-Sung with vigor — was totally normal.

Lee had no idea that people were suffering, until one day when she walked past a train station.

From TED:

I saw something terrible that I can't erase from my memory. A lifeless woman was lying on the ground, while an emaciated child in her arms just stared helplessly at his mother's face. But nobody helped them, because they were so focused on taking care of themselves and their families.

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My Comment: This is one of the best "talks" that I have ever heard on what life is like in North Korea. She reminds me of my father and his reflections on what life was like growing up under Stalin during the Ukrainian famine of 1932-1933.

What Will Be The Aftermath Of North Korea's Nuclear Test

North Korea’s Nuclear Test: Are You Listening, America?

EARS shut to the impending chorus of international condemnation, North Korea conducted its third nuclear test on February 12th. It said the detonation was of a “smaller and light” atomic bomb that was different from its previous two, and that it had “great explosive power”. Figuratively speaking, the blast may have been meant to resonate loudest in Washington, DC.

Judging by the seismic activity that was detected near North Korea’s Punggye-ri testing site, experts said the blast may have been marginally more powerful than that created by previous tests, in October 2006 and May 2009. Data from the U.S. Geological Survey put the tremor at a magnitude of 4.9, bigger than either of those caused previously. South Korean officials said it may have been 6,000-7,000 tons in TNT equivalent—again, bigger than in the past.

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My Comment: Yesterday's North Korean nuclear test puts to bed any hope that the new ruler in North Korea is interested in reforming the political and economic structures of the country. What he is focused on instead is building a nuclear arsenal that can threaten anyone .... the U.S. included. This is an ominous development .... and I do not see any positive suggestions or ideas on what should be the strategy to confront such a threat from the UN or any other country or political body in the world.

How North Korea Indoctrinates It's Young Warriors

North Korean children mourn their deceased leader Kim Jong Il in Pyongyang, on December 27, 2011 in this photo released by the North's KCNA on December 28, 2011. (Reuters/KCNA)

North Korea A Culture Of Warriors -- Tatiana Gabroussenko, Asia Times

" ... Young guerrilla girl Kumsuni delivers letters to comrades, and one day is caught by the police. When the policemen demand the girl disclose information about the guerillas, she spits into the faces of her interrogators. As the policemen drag Kumsuni to her execution, the heroic girl cries out 'Long Live General Kim Il Sung!'"

...Pre-teen boy Ri Kwang-ch'un is a member of a secret anti-Japanese children's organization. Along with others, he helps the "Red Guard uncles". However, one day policemen apprehend the boy. When the "bastards" torture the young patriot, Ri cuts off his own tongue in defiance. His last words are "Long Live the Korean Revolution!"

Even if one supports patriotic education of the younger generation, one is still likely to find such notions of slicing off one's own tongue, torture or execution to be much too disturbing and complicated to present to children. Yet the plots cited above are from comics published in Kkotpongori (Flower bud), a North Korean monthly magazine for kindergarden-aged children. The designated audience of the publication may be deduced by the types of logic puzzles included in each issue, such as: "Look at the pictures of a pig, a tractor and a bike. Which one moves faster?"

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My Comment: Does this indoctrination work? Guess what .... it does. My father grew up in the Ukraine during the famine of 1932-1933. He recalled how everyone in school had to sing praises to Stalin for the food that they had .... and they all believed it .... even though everyone was hungry. What changed his point of view was when he was exposed through pictures and news reports on the West. The newsreels talked about hard times and unrest, but what he saw were well fed and well dressed people .... driving cars .... and living in nice homes. This became the seeds of his resentment of the communist system .... a deep resentment that persisted with him until the day that he died. This is what I predict will happen in North Korea. When the North Koreans are exposed to what life is really like outside the hermit kingdom .... trust me .... there will be resentment and hate directed at the Kim family and the Communist system. And guess what .... the North Korean communists know that, and this is their biggest fear.

North Korea: From Bad To Worse

The North Korea Problem -- Richard Weitz, The Diplomat

Pyongyang has successfully tested a long-range rocket. What may happen next -- including missiles someday armed with nuclear warheads -- could make matters worse.

After announcing that its rocket was facing technical difficulties that might delay its impending test, North Korea surprised the international community by abruptly launching a three-stage rocket on Wednesday morning local time. Even more surprising than the timing was that the “Unha” (the Korean word for “galaxy”) rocket appears to have successfully placed the Kwangmyongsong-3 (“Shining Star-3”) satellite into orbit, albeit there are reports that it is encountering difficulties.

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My Comment: To put it bluntly .... nothing can be accomplished diplomatically with the regime in Pyongyang. And while I do expect the South Koreans and the Americans to continue trying to develop some form of dialogue with it's leadership .... I am not optimistic. To influence North Korea you will have to go through Beijing .... but for the moment China is more concerned about their own leadership changes and faltering economy .... and not North Korea. So where does this leave us .... a rogue regime with no restraints. My prediction .... after this missile test the next step for North Korea will be a nuclear test sometime in 2013.

North Korea's Missile Test Alters The Balance Of Power In The Region

North Korean Satellite Launch Changes Balance And Shakes Region -- Arutz Sheva

Analysis: The North Korean satellite launch can be used for long range nuclear weapons. What are the implications for US and Asia?

The success of the North Korean regime in putting a satellite into orbit has both diplomatic and strategic implications.

It will undoubtedly provide encouragement for Iran, by demonstrating that UN condemnations and expressions of "regret" will not terrorize a country determined to change the strategic balance.

It also represents the failure of US multilateral diplomacy that expected Russia and China to do a bit of the heavy lifting with regards to Pyongyang.

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My Comment: Experts are saying to not worry .... North Korea is still years away from reliable rockets. I say worry .... there are making their intentions very clear, and if North Korea should conduct a new nuclear test .... we are entering a new era that will alter strategic relationships and alliances for years to come.

Is It Really That Bad In North Korea?

Adrian Hong speaks on C-SPAN about North Korea. (C-SPAN)

It Really Is That Bad: A Powerful Speech On North Korea -- Max Fisher, Washington Post

It’s not easy to talk to people about North Korea. The story is so awful, and so static, what more is there to do, or even to say? This speech by Adrian Hong, a strategic consultant who also co-founded a U.S.-based NGO that assists North Korean escapees, starts with that question. His 10-minute speech, which you can view here, makes a powerful case for the moral urgency of the long-running North Korean crisis.

“One challenge I always have when I speak about North Korea is I run out of adjectives for how bad things are. And many of you that follow policy or human rights situations oftentimes get jaded with numbers,” Hong begins, speaking at an event for Melanie Kirkpatrick’s book Escape from North Korea: The Untold Story of Asia’s Underground Railroad, sitting between Kirkpatrick and Joseph Kim, a young escapee whose journey her book chronicles.

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My Comment: When I read stories like the one above it reminds me of my father talking about the Ukraine famine and how hard life was for the family (they had just moved there from central Russia).... and impossible for his neighbors. Or how his best friend told me how at age 12 he saw his mom and dad picked up by the NKVD (Russian secret police) during the height of Stalin's purges .... and knew that it was the last time that he would ever see them. So yeah .... it really is that bad in that Stalinist country known as North Korea.

When North Korea Collapses

When North Korea Collapses -- Robert Kaplan & Rodger Baker, Real Clear World

As we have pointed out previously, in the principal divided-country scenarios of the second half of the 20th century -- North and South Vietnam, East and West Germany, North and South Yemen -- reunification was thought of for decades as only a remote possibility, before it suddenly occurred in a tumultuous, fast-moving fashion, in a way few of the experts had predicted, making a mockery of so many policy papers written on the subject. The current division of the Korean Peninsula should be seen in this light. Not only is the collapse of the regime in the northern half of the peninsula possible, but if and when it does occur, the process might be quicker than many suspect.

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My Comment: When North Korea collapses .... Robert Kaplan and Rodger Baker are very sure of themselves.

The Day After North Korea Collapses

This satellite image shows North Korea in pitch-black darkness. Image credits: Planet Observer / Science Photo Library

The Day After -- Bill Keller, New York Times

THE one thing everyone knows about North Korea is that we know very little about North Korea, except that it is miserable, totalitarian, nuclear and erratic. It is the hermit kingdom, the dark side of the moon.

But thanks to many thousands of refugees who have reached freedom by way of a long underground railroad through China, we know a lot more now about the grim reality. We understand better how the government sustains its dreadful power, and where that power could be faltering. Among people who follow the country closely, there is fresh discussion of whether this most durable of monster-states could be nearing its end days, and what we should do about it.

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My Comment: North Korea collapsing .... afster please.

North Korea Breaks Another Agreement

North Korea Sets New Speed Record For Violating Agreement -- Matt Gurney, National Post

Well, then. That didn’t take long.

A whopping 16 days after announcing a new deal with the United States, North Korea has further announced that it is violating that deal. The February agreement saw North Korea agree to suspend nuclear and long-range missile tests, and let international inspectors back into the country to verify compliance. In exchange, the U.S. agreed to provide 240,000 tonnes of food to the North Koreans, who face a very real risk of famine.

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My Comment: Matt Gurney is right .... just a few weeks after announcing that they will suspend their nuclear and missile programs .... North Korea has decided to ignore their commitment and conduct a missile launch anyway.

Sighhh .... once again .... we have U.S. State Department officials .... who only a few weeks ago were trumpeting this agreement .... looking incredibly stupid. What concerns me right now is that even with this violation, will the U.S. still send the 240,000 tonnes of food to the North Koreans? Hmmmm .... something tells me that they will, and by doing so .... trust me .... they will then look (fill in the blank).

Positioning A New Deterrence Against North Korea

Photo Credit: Uniphoto Press

How To Worry Kim Jong-il -- Jeffrey Lewis & Elbridge Colby, The Diplomat

Deterring North Korea is a tough job, but someone has to do it. A better earth penetrating nuclear weapon might help.

In the past 18 months, North Korea sank a South Korean warship, the Cheonan, and bombarded Yeonpyeong Island in South Korea. Together, these two attacks killed 50 South Koreans. Moreover, it seems like further provocations might be on the way. These brazen acts threaten the credibility of US security commitments in Northeast Asia and have led to calls in South Korea for the United States to base nuclear weapons there and in Japan for building an independent nuclear deterrent. One Japanese academic has even posed the question, ‘Did deterrence against North Korea fail in 2010?’

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My Comment: Finding an effective deterrence against North Korea .... LOL .... good luck.

Why Our Allies Regard U.S. Foreign Policy On The Korean Peninsula As A Failure (A Commentary)

North Korea Draws In US To Save Face -- Donald Kirk, Asia Times

SEOUL - It did seem like a fun idea at the time. Why not hoist huge photos of Kim Jong-il and son and heir Kim Jong-eun and have young South Korean army soldiers fire away at them for target practice?

Like lofting balloons over the North bearing leaflets with great stories on the sordid histories of North Korea's dynastic leaders, this one just didn't strike the North Koreans as funny. No sooner did they get word about it than they were off on a rhetorical bender, promising the same "retaliatory military strikes" that they have said they will deploy against those so bold as to launch the dreaded balloons.

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My Comment: I for one could never understand U.S. aid policy when it comes to North Korea. Everyone in the region .... i.e. China, South Korea, Japan, defectors from North Korea .... everyone .... and I mean everyone .... knows that U.S. food aid goes directly to Kim il-Jong's security forces and privileged party officials. But even with this overwhelming understanding of the situation on the Korean peninsula, we still have useless idiots like US envoy on human rights to North Korea, Robert King .... who pursue a discredited and .... in fact .... a disastrous policy of rapprochement with the North.

In the meantime, South Korea is aware of the monsters that exist in North Korea, and must continually warn the North on the consequences of an armed confrontation.