The Consequences Of A Nuclear Incident In Iran

The Next Chernobyl? -- Khosrow B. Semnani and Gary M. Sandquist, New York Times

SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH — The showdown over Iran’s nuclear program is likely to accelerate in 2013 as sanctions tighten, Israel threatens military strikes, and the centrifuges keep spinning. While most attention will be focused on the two most oft-discussed sites of uranium enrichment — Natanz and Fordow — a third site on the gulf could prove to be this year’s most dangerous nuclear wild card.

Tucked between two sleepy coastal fishing villages, the Bushehr nuclear power plant has long been seen as the “acceptable” face of Iran’s nuclear program. Built by Russian engineers and monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency, it is already producing electricity, and most nuclear experts agree that it does not merit the same level of concern over weaponization as Iran’s other nuclear sites.

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My Comment: I was born in Russia, so when Chernobyl occurred it impacted me directly. Fortunately ... I was working in China, and I made sure that I stayed away .... actually .... I ended applying for (and being accepted) as an immigrant to Canada .... becoming a citizen a few years later and bringing my family a few years after that. Unfortunately .... many did not have that opportunity, and had to suffer the consequences .... the biggest one being the impact that the nuclear accident had on the health of the unborn and young children. In my own family all of my cousin's children had health problems .... from St. Petersburg, to Moscow, to southern Ukraine .... and I ended up becoming their main source in sending vitamins, medicines, etc., for their kids. That was not a good time, and I shudder to this day when I think about it.

Now I am reading about the possibility of a Chernobyl on the Persian Gulf. Sighhh .... I can tell you from personal experience that it will impact everything. The price of oil, a massive health crisis that will strain the regions health services, a mass migration of people away from the affected zone .... in short .... a disaster that will take decades (if not centuries) to resolve. The last paragraph of this New York Times commentary sums it up perfectly ....

.... The I.A.E.A. should focus on the safety of the Bushehr plant with the same eye for detail that it uses to detect any weaponization program. Hundreds of thousands of lives depend on it, as do world oil markets, the global economy, and the world’s collective security.

Why 2013 Will Be A Tough Year For Iran

Iran Faces a Rough 2013 -- Alireza Nader, Real Clear World

For Iran, 2013 could be one of the most challenging years-both at home and in relations with the outside world-since the 1979 revolution. The Islamic Republic faces the potential of stronger economic sanctions and even an Israeli and/or U.S. military strike because of its intransigence in complying with U.N. resolutions on its nuclear program.

But the world's only modern theocracy also must deal with twin domestic challenges-- deepening malaise among the young and increasing tensions among the political elite. Both could be important factors in the presidential election scheduled for June 14, which will feature a new slate of candidates since President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will have served the two-term limit. Home-grown problems could outweigh the regime's foreign policy woes.

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My Comment: The economy is going to be the number one story for Iranians in 2013 .... high prices, high unemployment, tougher times for those who are dependent on the government for the basics.

What Will Be The Economic Cost of A Nuclear Iran

The Economic Cost Of A Nuclear Iran -- Charles Robb, Dennis Ross and Michael Makovsky, Wall Street Journal

Sanctions and U.S. military force carry risks, but Tehran with a bomb would wreak havoc on global markets.

After the looming fiscal cliff, the next major challenge facing the United States will be preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapons capability. Living with a nuclear Iran is strategically untenable. Like the fiscal cliff, this is a matter of both economic and national security. Preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons carries various risks, but inaction has its costs, too—especially to the price of oil and, in turn, to the U.S. economy.

International sanctions against Iran have already restricted its oil exports, reducing global supply and putting upward pressure on oil prices. But a military strike against the Islamic Republic could disrupt the flow of oil in the region, as Iran might retaliate against the West by attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world's oil supplies pass.

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My Comment: I am always skeptical of these economic forecasts ... but I do know one thing .... a military confrontation with Iran will not only put the global economy into a recession .... but the cost of such a military conflict will probably escalate (very quickly) into the tens of billions (if not more) in just the first few weeks. Then again .... if a nuclear Iran does use it's nuclear arsenal directly (or indirectly through a terrorist organization) .... the cost will be in the trillions.

Sighhh .... damned if you do .... damned if you do not. Edward Luce from the Financial Times is probably right .... this is President Obama's year of reckoning on Iran.

Why Iran Doesn't Want The Bomb (Ten Reasons)

Ten Reasons Iran Doesn't Want the Bomb -- Seyed Hossein Mousavian, National Journal

Since the beginning of Iran’s nuclear crisis, the West has been convinced that one approach offers the best hope of altering Tehran’s nuclear policy and halting its enrichment activities: comprehensive international sanctions and a credible threat of military strike. During the same period, I have repeatedly warned my friends in the West that such punitive pressures, no matter how severe, will not change the Iranian leadership’s mindset, and that a military option would be catastrophic for Iran, the region and beyond.

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My Comment: These are good reasons .... but Iran (in defiance of the international community) is still pursuing their nuclear enrichment program.

Is Iran Bluffing?

The Iranian Bluff -- Alex Fishman, YNet News

Op-ed: Tehran seeks dialogue with West as its military threat gradually diminishes.

Over the past few months Iran has been purchasing huge amounts of food, and its citizens have been banned from withdrawing foreign currency from banks. In light of this, the West estimates that the Islamic Republic is preparing for the tightening of the economic siege, as well as for a military conflict and a forced war economy.

There is no doubt that the New York Times report on the resumption of direct talks between Iran and the United States marks yet another attempt by Tehran to loosen the noose around its neck. About a month ago the permanent members of the UN Security Council rejected Iran's "nine-step plan" to defuse the nuclear crisis with the West and instead passed a resolution demanding that Tehran stop enriching uranium to a 20% purity level and also ship all uranium enriched above five percent out of the country.

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My Comment: I do not believe that Iran is bluffing. Their military may not match the West's or Israel's .... but they know that .... so they will wage war on a different level .... i.e. asymmetrical, terrorism, hitting critical oil targets, etc.., and will probably be very effective.

Israel’s Top Iran Expert Explans Why Talks With Iran On It`s Nuclear Program Will Fail

Israel’s Top Iran Expert: You Can’t Out-Negotiate the Mullahs -- Daily Beast

Sure, Iran’s open to haggle with the United States about nukes. But there’s no way the nation will ever stop enriching uranium, Israel’s top Iran expert tells Dan Ephron.

Israel’s top Iran expert, a former spy who predicted the downfall of the shah in 1979, has news for President Barack Obama or anyone else hoping to talk Iran out of its nuclear program: forget about out-negotiating the mullahs.

Uri Lubrani, who was Israel’s ambassador to Iran from 1973 to 1978, told The Daily Beast that the Iran’s reported willingness to engage directly with the United States was yet another sign that sanctions were hurting the regime. But he said with dead certainty that Iran would not agree to stop enriching uranium—no matter what incentives it is offered.

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My Comment: The Iranians also have the added benefit of knowing that there is no political will in Washington or in Europe for a military confrontation with Iran over it`s nuclear program. With this understanding, there is no motivation in Tehran to reach an agreement over a program that the now probably regard is essential to their own national security.

A U.S. Military Strike On Iran?

Is The White House Weighing A Military Strike On Iran? -- Tony Karon, Time

The Israelis may be trying to make military action seem more palatable to the Administration, but diplomacy and sanctions will likely remain Washington's focus well into next year

Have some members of the Obama Administration been quaffing a ten-year-old jug of Kool Aid left in a White House basement fridge by Bush Administration officials? That’s certainly an impression conveyed by one unnamed source briefing Foreign Policy magazine’s David Rothkopf on talks between the Administration and the Israeli government. According to Rothkopf’s sources, Washington is now considering plans for a limited U.S.-Israeli raid on Iran’s nuclear facilities, a strike so “surgical” that it could be over in a matter of hours. This ostensible military cakewalk would, according to “one advocate” cited by Rothkopf have a “transformative outcome: saving Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, reanimating the peace process, securing the Gulf, sending an unequivocal message to Russia and China, and assuring American ascendancy in the region for a decade to come.”

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My Comment: More speculation. As to what's my take .... there is nothing on the ground that tells me that the U.S. is positioning assets in the region that will be used in a strike on Iran's nuclear sites. When I see 3-4 aircraft carrier groups near the Persian Gulf, the cancellation of military leaves, and the B-2 fleet at Diego Garcia .... that is when I know that this is going to happen.

Three Possible Scenarios From Iran's Currency Crisis

The Iranian Currency Crisis: Three Possible Scenarios -- Jay Newton-Small, Time

During my trip to Iran last month, the owner of a chicken shop in Shohada Square, a lower middle class neighborhood in southern Tehran not far from the bazaar, complained to me about the fluctuating price of chicken. “Yesterday, I had some orders from some regular customers. So I sold them chickens for 50,000 rials each,” he said. “But when I went to buy the chickens today, the price had spiked 5,000 rial overnight. I had to pay 55,000 rials for each chicken, so I lost some money. It would be fine if this was a one-time thing, but it keeps happening. The prices, they’ve fluctuated so much the last couple of months.”

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My Comment: Iran has lost the economic battle .... and I do expect even more economic hardships and diffident times for Iran. But .... as long as there are men willing to suppress/imprison/and kill the regime's opponents .... the mullahs will survive.

“Bomb? Or The Bomb?”: An Argument On "So What If The Iranian Mullahs Get The Bomb"

Nuclear Mullahs -- Bill Keller, New York Times

IRAN has returned to the front pages after a summer hiatus. Negotiations aimed at preventing the dreaded Persian Bomb have resumed their desultory course. Iran, although suffering from the international sanctions choreographed by the Obama administration, keeps adding new arrays of centrifuges while insisting the program is strictly nonmilitary. Israel is — or maybe isn’t — edging closer to a unilateral strike. The U.S., we learn from The Times’s reliable David Sanger, is considering more and bigger bouts of cybersabotage. Meanwhile, the mullahs are shipping arms to their embattled fellow despots in Syria.

This strikes me as a good time to address an unnerving question that confronts any concerned student of this subject: Can we live with a nuclear Iran? Given a choice of raining bunker-busting munitions on Iran’s underground enrichment facilities, or, alternatively, containing a nuclear-armed Iran with the sobering threat of annihilation, which is the less bad option? As the slogan goes in Israel: “Bomb? Or The Bomb?”

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My Comment: In short .... if diplomatic negotiations fail (which I believe will be the case) .... it appears that there are only two choices to consider when it comes to Iran's nuclear bomb program .... a nuclear Iran over the gamble of a pre-emptive war.

Sighhh .... two very lousy choices.

Would America's Nuclear Arsenal Deter A Nuclear Iran?

Senior General: U.S. Atomic Arsenal Could Deter a Nuclear-Armed Iran -- Elaine M. Grossman, National Journal

The top U.S. military commander for strategic combat on Thursday said that Washington’s atomic weapons could serve as the ultimate tool for deterring a nuclear-armed Iran (see GSN, June 21).

Asked at a public event whether the U.S. nuclear umbrella would be extended to nonnuclear Persian Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates in the event that Iran moves to build its own atomic bomb, Gen. Robert Kehler cited Washington’s roughly 2,150 deployed warheads as one of several means to ensure that Tehran does not threaten its neighbors.

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My Comment: The Iranians do not see it the same way as US General Robert Kehler does. To them .... America's nuclear deterrent is not a deterrent to them .... instead .... Iran's nuclear forces would act as a deterrent against the U.S. and it's allies in the region.

Commentaries, Opinions, Analysis, And Editorials On Iran's Nuclear Program

Nuclear Brinkmanship With Iran -- Reza Marashi, National Interest

Nuclear negotiations between Iran and the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany (P5+1) took a turn for the worse in Moscow last month. Despite policy makers and pundits describing the talks as neither a breakdown nor a breakthrough, we should be clear about the fact that both sides are now figuring out how to pick up the pieces after a dangerous turn of events.

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More Commentaries, Opinions, Analysis, And Editorials On Iran's Nuclear Program

Is Iran’s nuclear stance a door opened or shut? -- David Ignatius, The Daily Star

Will Iran crack? -- Meghan L. O'Sullivan, L.A. Times

Are Obama’s Iran Sanctions A Ruse? -- Robert Dreyfuss, The Diplomat

The Upside of a Nuclear-Armed Iran: A Chat With Kenneth Waltz -- P.J. Tobia, PBS Newshour

Details emerge on Iran's priorities in nuclear talks -- Scott Peterson, Christian Science Monitor

A breakdown in Iran nuclear talks appears likely -- David Ignatius, Washington Post

Activity at Parchin Explosive Testing Site Continues: Time Running Out for a Sound IAEA Inspection -- David Albright and Robert Avagyan, ISIS

Fearsome Iran Sanctions Just a Ruse -- Jonathan S. Tobin, Commentary

Iran nuke talks a wild-goose chase -- Amir Taheri, New York Post

The Coming War

The Coming War -- Benny Morris, The Daily Beast

Over the years, commentators–including myself–have wrongly predicted an Israeli assault on Iran’s nuclear installations coming “soon.” But recent developments and a variety of signs indicate that such an attack is imminent, and highly likely before the American presidential elections.

Last month, in the latest round of talks in Baghdad, Iran turned down a series of international proposals geared to halting Teheran’s headlong rush towards nuclear weapons production that left Western leaders, including President Obama, flustered and deeply worried. The representatives of the Security Council member states plus Germany appear to have agreed to allow Iran to enrich Uranium up to 5% (sufficient for medical research and other civilian purposes) if it agreed to stop its more advanced enrichment to 20%, to halt work on its major new underground enrichment facility at Fordow, near Qom, and to hand over to a third country the tons of 20%-enriched Uranium it has already amassed. The Iranians refused.

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My Comment: The Daily Beast is a liberal publication with ties to the Obama administration. If they are posting commentaries like this one, I can then only assume what the US administration and others may be thinking.

Talks With Iran On Its Nuclear Program Is A Waste Of Time

Iran Nuke Talks A Wild-Goose Chase -- Amir Taheri, New York Post

‘The Missiles of the Prophet”: That’s the code-name chosen by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for its latest naval exercises, which started Monday in the Strait of Hormuz.

The show of force is designed to coincide with the start in Istanbul of a new set of talks on Iran’s nuclear program, where Tehran faces the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany.

The rendezvous was fixed last month, after Iran and the “sextet” failed to find any “substantive common ground” in high-level talks in Moscow. Rather than admit failure, the two sides agreed to have “technical experts” meet in Istanbul.

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My Comment: Amir Taheri is right .... these talks are going to produce nothing. Iran is focused on having a nuclear program that will produce enriched nuclear material .... and they have no intention of compromising on this goal.

How A Country Like Iran Killed It's Future

Photo: Habib Elghanian

How Iran Killed Its Future -- Shahrzad Elghanayan, L.A. Times

The execution of Habib Elghanian, its most prominent Jewish industrialist and philanthropist, was a turning point for the country.

Imagine where the U.S. economy would be today if John Jacob Astor, Cornelius Vanderbilt, Andrew Carnegie or any of the magnates who helped turn America into an industrialized society had been gunned down by a revolutionary firing squad. In 1979, that is what happened in Iran to my grandfather, Habib Elghanian, Iran's most prominent Jewish industrialist and philanthropist. My grandfather's execution was not only a personal loss but a turning point for Iran.

His execution and the subsequent fleeing of businessmen from Iran contributed to derailing the country's chances of building a modern, diversified, export-based economy, and foreshadowed Iran's neglect of its most valuable resource: its people. Since the revolution in 1979, a new generation of Iranians has been left to foot the hefty losses caused by the Islamic Republic's hostility to independent businessmen, its fixation on oil, uranium and nuclear power and its cantankerous rhetoric against Israel.

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My Comment: Depressing reading .... but not surprising. The wealth of a nation is always created by it's entrepreneurial class .... a fact that even former communist states like China have come to realize. Unfortunately for Iran .... a society that is ruled by religious fanatics and a corrupt ruling class .... entrepreneurs are not welcomed .... and in some cases ostracized.

Life On The Street In Iran

In Iran, They Want Fun, Fun, Fun -- Nicholas D. Kristof, New York Times

Along the Caspian Sea, Iran

One of the most pernicious misunderstandings in the West about Iranians is that they are dour religious fanatics.

About half of Iranians are under the age of 25, and Iran has done a solid job of raising their education levels. I was struck on my 1,700-mile road trip across Iran by how many of them share American values, seeking fun rather than fanaticism. They seem less interested in the mosques than in amusement parks (which are ubiquitous in Iran).

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My Comment: Unfortunately .... the people who rule Iran have different priorities than what the common man may want on the street. And while I agree with Nicholas D. Kristof's assessment on the pitfalls of launching a military strike against Iran .... the sad fact is that Iran has different priorities and policy objectives that may result in war when the overwhelming sentiment in the West is to avoid it.

Hard Decisions On Iran's Nuclear Program Postponed Till The End Of May

European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton and Iran's chief negotiator Saeed Jalili pose for media before their meeting in Istanbul April 14, 2012. Tolga Adanali/Pool/Reuters

Iran Nuclear Talks: Hitting The ‘Snooze’ Button On The Alarm Clock Of Confrontation -- Tony Karon, Time

Staying within the “clock is ticking” metaphor favored by the Obama Administration when discussing diplomacy with Iran, Saturday’s talks in Istanbul could be said to have hit the snooze button. The doomsday alarm could yet sound, but not for a while yet. Iran and Western powers agreed Saturday to hold another round of talks—in Baghdad, of all places, at Iran’s request—on May 23. That means a proverbial “diplomatic window” (another rhetorical favorite of Administration officials) will remain open at least for the next five weeks.

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My Comment: My prediction .... come the end of May .... that another postponement will be agreed upon. However .... the Israelis are making it very clear that they have different ideas.

Are We Preparing For War Against Iran?

More Tea Leaves -- Information Dissemination

The Navy is moving a substantial amount of equipment to the Persian Gulf that if used, would be done specific in combat against the capabilities fielded by Iran. I am simply highlighting that fact about the MIW shift to the Gulf or other recent military orders reported in media this week; not trying to start a conspiracy theory.

So maybe this other relevant activity is just a coincidence, but even as a coincidence it is very interesting. Lets start with China.

The government on Tuesday raised retail prices for gasoline and diesel fuel for the second time in less than six weeks in an attempt to keep pace with soaring crude oil prices.

Chinese motorists are now paying $4.43 a gallon for 90-octane fuel — nearly equal to the $4.45-a-gallon average for mid-grade fuel in California, according to AAA.

The reason provided is found later in the article.

The increase should ease pressure on China's two main refiners, the state-owned China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. and PetroChina Co., which are not allowed to pass costs on to consumers. The two have reported losing billions of dollars already because of soaring crude prices.

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My Comment: Everyone is getting ready for the worse case scenario. Will it happen .... hmmmm .... I will still bet against a worse case scenario erupting in the Middle East, but the odds are shifting towards war.

All Hell Is About To Break Lose Between Iran And Israel

The Bomb And The Bomber -- Ari Shavit, New York Times

If Iran goes nuclear it will change our world.

An Iranian atom bomb will force Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt to acquire their own atom bombs. Thus a multipolar nuclear arena will be established in the most volatile region on earth. Sooner or later, this unprecedented development will produce a nuclear event. The world we know will cease to be the world we know after Tehran, Riyadh, Cairo or Tel Aviv become the 21st century’s Hiroshima.

An Iranian bomb will bring about universal nuclear proliferation. Humanity’s greatest achievement since 1945 was controlling nuclear armament by limiting the number of members in the exclusive nuclear club. This unfair arrangement created a world order that guaranteed relative world peace.

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My Comment: This is the worse case scenario .... one that is unfortunately slowly unfolding in front of our eyes.

What If Iran Already Has The A-Bomb? -- A Commentary

What If Iran Already Has The Bomb? -- Rep. Roscoe G. Bartlett and Peter Vincent Pry - The Washington Times

Better to be prepared than surprised.

In June, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates reassured America that there was still time for sanctions to compel Iran to abandon pursuit of an "Islamic bomb." U.S. policy toward Iran is founded on the assessment, unquestioned by anyone in the press, that Iran does not yet have nuclear weapons.

Yet there are good reasons for questioning this premise, so fundamental to our policy, that Iran is still a nonnuclear-weapons state.

That Iran has not conducted a nuclear test is no guarantee it does not have the bomb. The United States did not test the A-bomb that destroyed Hiroshima. The U.S. Trinity atomic test was of a more complex bomb design, which was used to destroy Nagasaki. The U.S. maintains its sophisticated thermonuclear deterrent without testing. Our own experience proves that Iran need not conduct a nuclear test in order to have nuclear weapons.

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My Comment: I am skeptical of those who believe that countries like Iran are capable of an EMP attack, but as for the rest of this commentary .... there are some good points on why we should be sensitive to Iran's nuclear ambitions and to what is their present state of development.

Did The CIA Get It Wrong On Iran's Nukes?

(Click On Image To Expand)
Image from Spiegel Online

How The CIA Got It Wrong On Iran's Nukes -- Edward J. Epstein, Wall Street Journal

In 2007, U.S. intelligence said Iran had stopped its nuclear weapons program. Analyst policy bias and disinformation from Iranian double agents may explain the mistake.

In a stunning departure from a decade of assessments, the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran declared: "We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program," including "nuclear weapon design and weaponization work" and covert uranium enrichment. Even more astonishingly, it attributed this change to "increasing international scrutiny and pressure resulting from exposure of Iran's previously undeclared nuclear work." In other words, the threat of sanctions had ended that country's surreptitious effort to obtain nuclear weapons.

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My Comment: A sobering analysis and commentary on Iran's nuclear program and our response to it .... read it all.