What Would India Do If Pakistan Plunges Into Civil War

How Will India Respond To Civil War In Pakistan? -- Sunil Dasgupta, East Asia Forum/UMBC and Brookings Institution

In 1971, India intervened militarily on behalf of Bengalis in the civil war in East Pakistan, dividing the country in two and helping to create Bangladesh.

In 2013, prospects of another civil war in Pakistan — this time one that pits radical Islamists against the secular but authoritarian military — have led once again to questions about what India would do. What would trigger Indian intervention, and who would India support?

In the context of a civil war between Islamists and the army in Pakistan, it is hard to imagine Pakistani refugees streaming into India and triggering intervention as the Bengalis did in 1971. Muslim Pakistanis do not see India as a refuge, and Taliban fighters are likely to seek refuge in Afghanistan, especially if the United States leaves the region.

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My Comment: I agree with the author's conclusion that if Pakistan plunges into a sectarian civil war .... India would prefer to stay out. But the problem is .... and will be .... Pakistan's nuclear weapons and WMDs. If radical Jihadists are on the verge of seizing these .... staying on the sidelines may not be an option for India .... or for anyone else including the U.S..

U.S. - India Relations -- A Commentary

Barack Obama, US president, talks to Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in Pittsburgh, where leader agreed to give emerging economies a greater role. Photo: Getty

Obama Is Ruining India’s Security Climate -- The Pioneer

He may not relish the comparison but it is now becoming increasingly obvious that Mr Barack Obama is the most hostile American President for India since Richard Nixon. In the eight months he has been in office, Mr Obama has snubbed India more than once. He has sent repeated signals that New Delhi is not integral to his Asian security architecture. Partly as a result of his country’s economic crisis, he has bent over backwards to accommodate China. His open advocacy of protectionism has been most visibly targeted at outsourcing of technology jobs to India. He headlined anti-trade legislation by saying it would punish those who created jobs in Bangalore rather than Buffalo, a special mention that was extraordinarily impolitic and did not go unnoticed in India.

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My Comment: Since no one is going to publish this commentary in North America .... I decided to do so.

India Is In Peril. Obama Is Making It Worse -- A Commentary

Flames and smoke gush out of the historic historic Taj Mahal Hotel in Mumbai on November 27, 2008, one of the sites of attacks by militant gunmen. Picture: AFP

From The Spectator:

Brahma Chellaney says that India is indeed ‘the sponge that protects us all’ from terrorism emanating from Pakistan. The new President’s strategy is compounding the Af-Pak problem

One of the most striking things about the larger Asian strategic landscape is that India is wedged in an arc of failing or troubled states. This harsh reality is India’s most glaring weakness; its neighbourhood is so combustible as to impose a tyranny of geography. Today, Pakistan’s rapid Talebanisation tops India’s concerns. After all, the brunt of escalating terrorism from Pakistan will be borne by India, which already has become, in the words of ex-US official Ashley Tellis, ‘the sponge that protects us all’.

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India’s Deft Diplomacy -- A Commentary

Indian Military Parade (From the BBC)

From Newsweek:

By resisting the temptation to respond to the Mumbai attacks with force, New Delhi has avoided a pointless confrontation with Pakistan.

On Dec. 13, 2001, a group of terrorists later found to be members of the Jaish-e-Mohammed and the Lashkar-e-Taiba, both Pakistan terrorist organizations, attacked the Indian parliament. In the ensuing battle all of them were killed along with a small handful of security personnel. In the aftermath of this attack, the right–of-center Bharatiya Janata Party-led government embarked upon a massive military mobilization along the Indo-Pakistani border designed to coerce Pakistan to comply to a set of Indian demands including the handover of at least 20 people accused of carrying out acts of terror on Indian soil. This military mobilization lasted several months and mostly yielded pious promises of compliance from Pakistan. Not a single person was handed over to the Indian authorities and the relevant terrorist groups were allowed to flourish within Pakistan with impunity, albeit under new names. The Lashkar-e-Taiba, for instance, became the Jammat-ud-Dawa.

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