Egypt's Economy Is At The Breaking Point

Egypt’s Economic Breakdown Deepens The Crisis -- David P. Goldman, PJ Media

Prospective economic ruin has energized Egypt’s political crisis since the fall of Hosni Mubarak in January 2011. Mohammed Morsi’s Islamists and the opposition are not battling in the streets of Egyptian cities about economics, to be sure, but about how to govern a country that cannot meet the basic needs of most of its citizens. Egypt’s pound dropped suddenly on the foreign exchange market Thursday as the country’s central bank announced a drop in foreign exchange reserves during November. If the pound collapses–and it is hard to see how this can be avoided–the cost of necessities will soar and the crisis will deepen.

Read more ....

My Comment: What may eventually save Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood dominated Egyptian government are his supporters in the White House.

Egypt's Coming Economic Storm

Photo: Mohamed Morsi at UN General Assembly Sept 26. Reuters

The Muslim Brotherhood and Egypt's Coming Economic Storm -- Andrew Natsios, US News and World Report

Much of the news out of Egypt since the "Arab Spring" uprising has focused on the Muslim Brotherhood and its role in the collapse of the Mubarak government; and later its victory in the parliamentary elections in 2011 and slender win in the presidential election in 2012. That Egyptian narrative is gradually changing to one much more complicated and less visible focused on Egypt's economic crisis which will unfold slowly, but may then engulf the country like a title wave over the next few years. That title wave could drive Egypt to a much more violent second revolution.

Compared to the carnage in Libya, Yemen, and Syria, the first Egyptian revolution was relatively restrained. By the end of it, a thousand people rather than tens of thousands had died, the creaky physical and industrial infrastructure of the country remained intact, and the organs of state authority appear to continue to function however corrupt and inefficient. But appearances can be misleading as the country's coming economic crisis could lead to an unraveling of the state.

Read more ....

My Comment: Talk about perfect storms .... and yes .... I concur with it's analysis.

On a personal side note ..... and an indication of how Egypt is now being perceived by many in the West .... a good friend of mine is an avid "amateur" Egyptologist who travels to Egypt every second year .... and she has been doing it for the pat 20 years. Not surprisingly .... she now has no plans (or desire) to go there for the next few years (if not more). I am sure that her story is one example among millions .... that the Egypt that they once knew is no longer there .... and in its place we now have an Islamic government that has no interest in having people like my friend .... a single women who enjoys traveling alone .... come to Egypt for a visit. As she told me only yesterday when I brought up the topic of Egypt with her .... all good things come to an end.

Sighhh ... and in the case of Egypt she is right.

How Will The Region Be Impacted By The Muslim Brotherhood’s Ascent In Egypt?

Egypt’s president-elect Mohamed Morsi (R) attends Friday prayer at al-Azhar mosque in the old quarter of Cairo June 29, 2012. Muslim Brotherhood supporters flocked to Cairo’s Tahrir Square on Friday to hear Morsi speak on the eve of his inauguration as Egypt's first Islamist, civilian president. Reuters

Muslim Brotherhood’s Ascent In Egypt Has Profound Implications For Region -- Washington Post

BEIRUT — It has been 18 months since the streets of Arab cities erupted with rage against their rulers, launching the Middle East on a roller-coaster ride of hope and despair, victories and defeats.

Perhaps none of the many turning points has been quite as profound as the understated ceremony in Cairo on Saturday at which a bearded and bespectacled former political prisoner was sworn in as the first democratically elected president of the Arab world’s most populous country.

Read more ....

My Comment: This is a watershed moment .... for Egypt .... Israel .... and the region in general. Religiosity is spreading across North Africa, with Islamists poised to do well in Libya’s first democratic elections this month as well as running the government in Tunisia. For many secularists and religious minorities .... they have reason to be concerned. My prediction .... a year from now the Muslim Brotherhood will be firmly entrenched in all institutions of government in Egypt .... and they will still be supported by a large majority of the population.

Is Egypt The Next Iran?

Egypt's revolution has not turned out as the crowds in Tahrir Square hoped

Will Egypt Become The New Iran? -- Con Coughlin, The Telegraph

Having argued consistently for the past year that the so-called Arab Spring would bring nothing but misery and disappointment, I take no great comfort from the outcome of Egypt's presidential elections. Far from providing the country with the type of Western-style, secular and democratic system of government the protesters in Tahrir Square demanded, all that has been achieved is the election of an Islamic government that is committed to introducing a judicial system based on Sharia law.

It was obvious to anyone with any knowledge of Egypt that, once President Mubarak was removed from power, the contest to choose his replacement would fall between the military and the Islamists, the only groups with the organisational infrastructure to sustain a convincing electoral campaign.

Read more ....

My Comment: For the moment .... there is hope.

Revolutions Like Egypt's Most Often End Badly -- A Commentary

Hold The Applause: Revolutions Like Egypt's Most Often End Badly. -- David Mack, Foreign Policy

Given the high degree of euphoria and romanticism in the coverage by both Western and Arab media of recent popular uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia, it would be useful for everyone to take a few deep breaths and remind ourselves that revolutions often look very attractive in the beginning. Then they usually go through some really bad periods; the French reign of terror and the decade of political turmoil that followed, the crushing oppression of Soviet communism in Russia, and the unfinished misery of Iranians.

Read more ....

My Comment: My prediction .... hardship and suffering for the next 3-5 years.

Can Egypt Become Another Iran? -- A Commentary

The Flowering Of Democracy, Or The Birth Of Another Iran? -- Ian Birrell, The Daily Mail

For the fifth day in a row, Egypt was consumed with rage, fear and hope yesterday. The streets of ancient cities like Cairo and Alexandria were filled again with the burning anger of brave citizens, desperate to pull down a regime that has repressed and impoverished them for so long.

With smoke rising from the burned out headquarters of the ruling party, bodies piled up at the morgues and protesters defying tanks by clambering on to them and urging soldiers to join the uprising, no-one should be in the slightest doubt over the significance of these events.

Read more ....

My Comment: The parallels between Egypt and Iran are striking. The Islamists are the only real effective opposition in Egypt, and with their ability to organize and galvanize their followers into action at a level that no other opposition group can do .... the future does not look good at all.

With Revolution In The Air, What Will Egypt's Army Do Now?

Just Whose Side Are Arab Armies On, Anyway? -- Foreign Policy

Tunisia’s military saved the people’s revolution. But in other Arab countries on the brink -- such as Egypt and Yemen -- the armed forces are far less likely to do the same.

TUNIS—When security forces started firing on protestors earlier this month on the streets of cities around Tunisia, the military stepped in. President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali's orders were to make the protests end, with live rounds if needed. The armed forces didn't listen. Troops moved into the streets and reportedly even deployed helicopters to stop paramilitary snipers who were shooting demonstrators from rooftops. The de facto head of the military, Army Chief of Staff Gen. Rachid Ammar, then prodded President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali into exile, saved the people's revolution, and -- most miraculously of all -- then declined to take power himself.

Read more ....

My Comment: These soldiers have no stomach to fire upon their own citizens. The dye is cast .... the military rank and file are not going to support what their leaders tell them to do. Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak days are numbered .... and at an age of 84 .... I doubt that he has the stomach to even fight.