Is Pakistan Becoming A Failed State?

Trying to fix the tracks near Lahore. Pakistan’s railways, which once linked a fractious young nation, have been neglected. Andrea Bruce for The New York Times

Pakistan, Rusting in Its Tracks -- New York Times

In a Journey on a Crumbling Railway, a Picture of a Nation’s Troubles

RUK, Pakistan — Resplendent in his gleaming white uniform and peaked cap, jacket buttons tugging his plump girth, the stationmaster stood at the platform, waiting for a train that would never come. “Cutbacks,” Nisar Ahmed Abro said with a resigned shrug.

Ruk Station, in the center of Pakistan, is a dollhouse-pretty building, ringed by palm trees and rice paddies. Once, it stood at the junction of two great Pakistani rail lines: the Kandahar State Railway, which raced north through the desert to the Afghan border; and another that swept east to west, chaining cities from the Hindu Kush mountains to the Arabian Sea.

Now it was a ghost station. No train had stopped at Ruk in six months, because of cost cutting at the state-owned rail service, Pakistan Railways, and the elegant station stood lonely and deserted. Idle railway men smoked in the shadows. A water buffalo sauntered past.

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My Comment: A must read analysis from the New York Times. An excellent graphic on Pakistan's woes can be seen here.

The Pakistan-Haqqani Alliance

Photo: Jalaluddin Haqqani. Reuters

Pakistan-Haqqani Ties Threaten To Thwart U.S. -- Ashish Kumar Sen, The Washington Times

Western officials and analysts say U.S. and U.N. pressure is failing to persuade Pakistan to cut its ties to a terrorist network whose attacks coalition forces fear could complicate the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan.

The Haqqani Network, based in Pakistan’s northwest region, receives financial and logistical support from Pakistan’s military and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, Western officials say.

“The support operation [in Pakistan] for the Haqqanis’ war-fighting is intact,” said a former Western official who spoke on background, citing security concerns.

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My Comment: Pakistan's refusal to cut it's ties with the Haqqani group is a guarantee that bloodshed and mayhem will continue in Afghanistan. This post is a must read for those who want to understand Pakistan's role in the war in Afghanistan, and what is it's relationship with the Haqqani network.

Why Pakistan Is Hated (A Commentary)

Why Muslims And Chinese Hate Pakistan -- Musings

Pakistanis evoke highly negative emotions worldwide, including in Muslim majority countries, says a US survey. Not just the elites but the common Pakistani too is culpable in the country’s spectacular failure.

It has never been easy being a Pakistani. Pick a terrorist act committed anywhere in the world and chances are it has Pakistani fingerprints all over it. In many places, the word ‘Pakistani’ is a four-letter word.

So it must be a nasty kick in the guts for the Pakistanis to learn that their only allies, the Chinese, as well as the majority populations of several Muslim countries, including Egypt, Tunisia, Jordan and Lebanon, see them as a bunch of baddies.

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My Comment: Regular readers of this blog know that I have never been a fan of Pakistan, and even a fiercer critic of U.S. military and financial aid to that country .... and do not get me going on finding Osama Bin laden in the country. Having said all that .... it's good to know that my views are at least shared by a majority of Muslims around the world, as well as by Pakistan's neighbors.

The Afghan Supply Routes May Re-Open, But Differences Still Remain Between The U.S. And Pakistan

A Pakistan national flag is mounted on the top of a fuel tanker, which was used to carry fuel for NATO forces in Afghanistan, as drivers sit nearby, at a compound in Karachi July 3, 2012. Athar Hussain / Reuters

Pakistan Reopens Afghan Supply Routes, But Larger Diplomatic Crises Loom -- Ishaan Tharoor, Time

Pakistan's decision to re-open the overland supply routes into Afghanistan may be a slight boost for Washington-Islamabad ties, but there's much more wrangling ahead as the U.S. steps up its plans to withdraw from Afghanistan by the end of 2014

It never hurts to say sorry. That’s the trite lesson behind Pakistan’s confirmation Tuesday that it was re-opening ground supply routes into Afghanistan used by the U.S. and its allies to provision NATO forces there. Following a phone call with her Pakistani counterpart, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton issued a statement that amounted to something of public apology for the U.S. role in a shootout along the Afghan border last November that claimed the lives of 24 Pakistani soldiers. That incident prompted weeks of heated protests in Pakistan, reinforced by a blockade of trucks conveying NATO materiel into Afghanistan and marked yet another climactic chapter in the turgid chronicle of the U.S.-Pakistani relationship.

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My Comment: I see nothing happening in Pakistan that would make me feel comfortable that better times are ahead. Pakistan still supports some of the most dangerous extremist groups in the world, and is refusing to even make a token effort to solve any of its many social/political/economic problems.

The Slow Internal Collpase Of Pakistan

Pakistan Collapsing From Within -- CNN

Tensions that flare between Pakistan's ineffective civilian government and influential judiciary reached an all-time high last week when the country’s Supreme Court disqualified Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani from holding office.

The unprecedented ruling came less than two months after Gilani was charged with contempt for his refusal to ask the Swiss government to reopen corruption charges facing President Asif Ali Zardari. It was followed days later by parliament electing a replacement, Raja Pervez Ashraf, who has also been accused of corruption in the past.

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My Comment: What's my take .... because of its nukes as well as having a large extremist Islamic militant presence (and support) within the country .... there are times when I consider Pakistan to be more dangerous to our national security than Iran.

With Friends Like This, Who Needs Enemies: A Commentary On Pakistan

With An Ally Like Pakistan, Who Needs Enemies? -- L.A. Times

Remember when Pakistan was our ally?

Neither do I.

But on Thursday, The Times' David S. Cloud, Ken Dilanian and Alex Rodriguez outlined just how lousy an ally that nation has become. (Warning: The following may be upsetting to you if you are an American taxpayer.)

Pakistan's powerful intelligence agency communicated with Afghan insurgents who attacked the U.S. Embassy and NATO headquarters in central Kabul last week and appear to have provided them with equipment, according to U.S. military officers and former officials.

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My Comment: Dexter Filkins at the New Yorker also chimes in with some scathing observations on our South-east Asian ally.

The End Of The US-Pakistan Alliance

Photo: Gen. Hamid Gul

Down Goes The US-Pakistan Alliance -- Arnold De Borchgrave, Washington Times

Taliban-Pakistan cooperation goes too far.

Fickle friends and strong enemies at the same time is the hard-to-decipher mojo at either end of the Pakistan-U.S. strategic relationship. Each time relations are said to have reached rock bottom, someone, somewhere continues to dig.

President George W. Bush elevated Pakistan to “major non-NATO ally” in 2004. Pakistan’s homegrown terrorists and their military backers gleefully ignored the promotion as they covertly continued to back Taliban in Afghanistan.

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My Comment: If Arnold De Borchgrave was a Pakistani writing this commentary in Pakistan .... you just know that he will be killed.

Pakistan's Descent Into An Extreme Islamic State Continues

Pakistan Faces A Divide Of Age On Muslim Law -- New York Times

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Cheering crowds have gathered in recent days to support the assassin who riddled the governor of Punjab with 26 bullets and to praise his attack — carried out in the name of the Prophet Muhammad — as an act of heroism. To the surprise of many, chief among them have been Pakistan’s young lawyers, once seen as a force for democracy.

Their energetic campaign on behalf of the killer has caught the government flat-footed and dismayed friends and supporters of the slain politician, Salman Taseer, an outspoken proponent of liberalism who had challenged the nation’s strict blasphemy laws. It has also confused many in the broader public and observers abroad, who expected to see a firm state prosecution of the assassin.

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My Comment: This has been developing for a very long time. The education system promotes Islamic extremism and anti-Christian/Hindu/Jewish propaganda. The political class always blames outsiders for their failings. The Pakistani media's rabid anti-Western coverage gives no opportunity to provide an alternative point of view. The military/intelligence services have been infiltrated by so many Islamic radical sympathizers, that any purge is now next to impossible to accomplish. And now .... the legal system is finding itself becoming a major proponent of Islamic law and its more extreme tenets.

And one more thing (before I forget) .... Pakistan has a lot of nuclear weapons.

Can A Coup Happen In Pakistan?

Coup In Pakistan 'A Real Possibility': Interview With Terrorism Expert Bruce Riedel -- Spiegel Online

Western countries would like to negotiate with the Taliban, but Pakistan would rather they didn't. US terrorism expert Bruce Riedel spoke with SPIEGEL ONLINE about just how explosive the situation currently is in Pakistan and how much influence al-Qaida still has.

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My Comment: Bruce Riedel`s analysis is spot on. The Taliban, Al Qaeda, radical Islam .... all of these players and factors are interconnected .... and all of them have a desire to strike at us in Europe and in the U.S.

This is a must read interview and analysis.

The Taliban Are Having A Free Pass In Pakistan

Soldiers on the border of Pakistan's North West Frontier Province Photo: REUTERS

Pakistan Won't Act Against The Taliban -- Patrick Cockburn, The Independent

Most Pakistani soldiers see the Afghan Taliban as Pashtun freedom fighters combating a foreign occupation.

Pakistan has highlighted the hold it has over the US and Nato forces in Afghanistan by stopping their supply trucks from crossing the Afghan frontier. The ban is in retaliation for US helicopters making an attack on the Pakistani side of the border and killing three Pakistani soldiers.

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My Comment: David Ignatius from The Washington Post has the same opinion .... Pakistan has little if any interest in to stop the Afghan Taliban from continuing their mayhem and destruction in Afghanistan. In fact, the perception is that a Taliban Government in Afghanistan would be sympathetic to Pakistan, and will be hostile to countries like India.

To me .... Pakistan reminds me of the Palestinians. Both have a long and horrible history of "screwing" things up, and then protesting on why things have gone so wrong for them. In this case, Pakistan's reluctance to confront what many in the West regard as a clear and present danger to us will result in further alienating and isolating Pakistan .... bringing little if any benefit to Pakistan in escaping the chronic poverty and violence that now symbolizes how much of a failed state it has become..

Is International Aid To Pakistan Only Helping To Increase Support For Terrorism? -- A Commentary

Pakistanis prepare to unload the next cargo of crops to arrive aboard a U.S. Army CH-47 Chinook helicopter at Rubicon for transport to flood-affected areas in Swat valley, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region, Pakistan, Sept. 19, 2010. U.S. Army photo by Spc. Reese Von Rogatsz

Black Hole For Foreign Aid -- V.S. Subrahmanian, Aaron Mannes and Amy Sliva, The Washington Times

As U.S. funds increase, so does terrorism.

As Pakistan approaches the international community for massive assistance for the third time in six years, donors face difficult choices. Three disasters, starting with the 2005 earthquake in Kashmir, then the 2008 financial crisis, and now the massive flooding, were not Pakistan's fault. Nevertheless, as violence and terrorism emanating from Pakistan increase, donors must ask if aid to Pakistan is improving international security.

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My Comment: After funneling billions and billions in aid to Pakistan .... we now have a country that is seething with hatred towards many Western aid donor countries (the U.S. included), and a society that is producing even more hard core Jihadists who wish to spread terrorism around the world.

From where I am standing it is clear to me that something is terribly wrong.

America's Problem Pakistan, Not Afghanistan

From The San Francisco Chronicle:

Here we go again with Pakistan. This isn't deja vu. No, it's now a routine pattern in modern life: An Islamic fundamentalist trains in Pakistan and then flies to America or another Western state to wreak havoc.

Look back decades. Ramzi Yousef, the 1993 World Trade Center bomber, was born of Pakistani parents in Kuwait and trained in Pakistan for the attack.

Ramzi Binalshibh, the Yemeni suspected of coordinating the Sept. 11 attack, was arrested the next year in Pakistan. Several men involved in the London train bombings five years ago trained in Pakistan. So did Richard Reed, the shoe bomber.

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My Comment: Joel Brinkley from the San Francisco Chronicle hits it on the nail .... he observes what many others have been saying for a long time .... in the Jihadist world all roads lead to (and from) Pakistan.

On a side note, Soviet military (and political) leaders were saying the same thing when they were battling against the mujaheddin during their war against Islamic radicals in Afghanistan from 1980 - 1988. They all wanted to attack their safe havens in Pakistan, but diplomatic and military pressures prevented them from doing so.

Sighhh .... it seems that history is being repeated again.

Is Pakistan A Rogue State?

Inferno: Lahore's public places have been targeted a number of times over the last year.
Photo from The Daily Mail.

None Dare Call it a Rogue State -- Zen Pundit

Reader Isaac, points to an excellent analytical overview of Pakistan’s national nervous breakdown at Dawn.com, by Nadeem F. Paracha. It is a lengthy but stupendous post with some 200 + comments:

Little monsters

There is nothing new anymore about the suggestion that over a span of about 30 odd years, the Pakistani military and its establishmentarian allies in the intelligence agencies, the politicised clergy, conservative political parties and the media have, in the name of Islam and patriotism, given birth to a number of unrestrained demons which have now become full-fledged monsters threatening the very core of the state and society in Pakistan.

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My Comment: Long time readers of this blog know that I have always been skeptical (and critical) of Pakistani politics, their news media, their security forces, their embedded culture of corruption, their education system,and their economy. And yes .... I realized a long time ago that they are completely unreliable as an ally.

But are they a rogue state?

I would say that half of the country has some sense of central government control .... the other half is a mix of tribal/provincial/ethnic groups and interests. If this is what makes a rogue state .... then Pakistan is definitely a rogue state. But fortunately .... on the big issues .... the central government does exercise a considerable amount of authority, and they do assist us. They permit predator drone strikes on their territory, they have captured for us senior Al Qaeda leaders, and they permit (at great expense to us) the shipment of goods and resources through their territory to Afghanistan.

But the big question that needs to be asked is .... can they maintain this authority in the foreseeable future and still be a worthwhile ally to us as we expand the war and its scope in Afghanistan. The answer to that question is uncertain at the moment because the situation in Pakistan is becoming even more "screwed up" .... and I am not sure if everything can be salvageable. I guess only time will give us the answer to this question, but since President Obama's speech at West Point.... he has made it very clear that time is one luxury that we do not have.

Famed French Judge Bruguiere Tells Of A Troubled Pakistan

Photo: Jean-Louis Bruguiere

From The L.A. Times:

In a new book, former investigative magistrate Jean-Louis Bruguiere says Pakistan has lost control of rogue military and intelligence officers, who are aiding militants.

Reporting from Washington - The Pakistani government has lost control of rogue military and intelligence officers who aid Al Qaeda and its allies and play a double game with the West, a renowned French judge asserts in an upcoming book.

For three decades, Jean-Louis Bruguiere was an investigative magistrate, a powerful role that combines the duties of prosecutor and judge and allowed him to cultivate high-level contacts from Algiers to Moscow. He stepped down from that post in 2007, and now serves as the European Union's envoy to Washington on issues related to the financing of terrorism.

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My Comment: the French can be (at times) brutally honest .... this is one of those times.

The More Pakistan Changes The More It Stays The Same

From Rediff News:

If ever there was any doubt about Pakistan having realised the folly of using medieval and barbaric Islamists for fulfilment of strategic designs, these doubts now need to be put to rest. For the Pakistan army, the real enemy is India; the Taliban remain a strategic asset.

The interview of the Pakistan military spokesman, Maj Gen Athar Abbas to CNN a couple of weeks back, was the first open acknowledgement of this immutable reality. The subsequent denial by his office of the deep links and continuing contacts between the Pakistan army and the Taliban leadership turned out to be hollow, especially after senior ISI officials briefed New York Times reporters that they 'consider India their top priority and the Taliban militants a problem that can be negotiated'.

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Update: Terror Ties Run Deep in Pakistan, Mumbai Case Shows -- New York Times

My Comment: This article from Rediff "so nails" what is wrong with Pakistan today. I could not have written it any better. The New York Times article is a must read also.

Pakistan Poses a 'Mortal Threat' -- A Commentary

From Real Clear Politics:

Does anyone take serious words seriously anymore here in Washington?

News item No. 1 concerns the testimony of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on April 22. She said deteriorating security in nuclear-armed Pakistan "poses a mortal threat to the security and safety of our country and the world."

News item No. 2 is this headline on the front page of the May 4 edition of The Washington Post: "U.S. Options in Pakistan Limited."

News item No. 3 is a quote in Jackson Diehl's May 4 column in The Washington Post from a senior Obama administration official: "It's not good when your national security interests are dependent on a country over which you have almost no influence."

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Moment Of Truth In Pakistan -- A Commentary

From Real Clear Markets:

WASHINGTON -- President Obama convened a crisis meeting at the White House last Monday to hear a report from Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who had just returned from Pakistan. Mullen described the worrying situation there, with Taliban insurgents moving closer to the capital, Islamabad.

"It had gotten significantly worse than I expected as the Swat deal unraveled," Mullen explained in an interview. He was referring to a truce brokered in February in the Swat Valley, about 100 miles north of Islamabad. The Pakistani military had expected that the cease-fire would subdue Taliban fighters in Swat. Instead, the Muslim militants surged south into the district of Buner, on the doorstep of the capital.

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My Comment: If you ignore the past ... you are doomed to repeat it. Hmmmm ..... are we repeating history?

Who's Got the Nukes, Redux -- A Commentary

Show of Force: Pakistan's Shaheen II missile, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, was shown in an Islamabad parade last year. Anjum Naveed/AP

From In From The Cold:

Writing in the weekend edition of The Wall Street Journal, former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton reminds us that the Taliban's recent gains in Pakistan bring them closer to the unthinkable--control of that country and its nuclear arsenal.

In his op-ed, Mr. Bolton outlines two disturbing scenarios:

One scenario is that instability continues to grow, and that the radicals disrupt both Pakistan's weak democratic institutions and the military.

Often known as Pakistan's "steel skeleton" for holding the country together after successive corrupt or incompetent civilian governments, the military itself is now gravely threatened from within by rising pro-Taliban sentiment. In these circumstances -- especially if, as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton testified recently, the nuclear arsenal has been dispersed around the country -- there is a tangible risk that several weapons could slip out of military control. Such weapons could then find their way to al Qaeda or other terrorists, with obvious global implications.

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My Comment: In From The Cold hits it on the nail with his two paragraph summary at the end with the key sentence being the following.

... the U.S. doesn't have definitive intelligence on the whereabouts of Pakistan's nukes.

I think he is right.

Nicholas Schmidle On How To Save Pakistan -- A Commentary

A Pakistani police officer, taking shelter behind an armored vehicle, aimed his weapon at demonstrators in Islamabad on Friday. Emilio Morenatti/Associated Press

From Captain;s Journal:

Nick Schmidle has written an essay in Slate on How to Save Pakistan. Nick, with whom I have exchanged e-mail, is not only a first rate Pakistan and Taliban scholar (see his work on Next-Gen Taliban), but an all around nice guy (and if he sends me a copy of his new book, I would give it a great review). He deserves to be read by anyone interested in the future of Asia and its implications for our own security. Parts of his piece are reproduced below.

This is the only country in the Islamic world where tens of thousands protest in the streets for the rule of law. Sure, there’s some support for the Taliban and their ilk, but as last year’s election, in which the Islamist parties were drubbed, showed, the Islamists don’t enjoy as much grass-roots support as their American-flag-burning rallies would suggest. (Unfortunately, the civilian government that took power last spring has squandered much of its goodwill and is, like Pervez Musharraf’s government before it, increasingly seen as toadying to the Americans.) So what can Washington do to save Pakistan?

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Pakistan: Sound The Alarm -- A Commentary

From The Washington Post:

What does the Obama administration hope to accomplish by publicly warning of a Pakistani collapse?

THE TALIBAN raised fears in Pakistan last week by briefly seizing new territories near the capital, Islamabad. But in its own way, the Obama administration offered as much reason for panic about the deteriorating situation in that nuclear-armed Muslim country. In the course of just three days, the U.S. secretaries of State and Defense, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, and the commanding general of American forces in the Middle East all publicly warned, in blunt and dire language, that Pakistan was facing an existential threat -- and that its government and Army were not facing it. "I think that the Pakistani government is basically abdicating to the Taliban and to the extremists," said Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.

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