Is China Maintaining It's 'No First Use' Nuclear Doctrine?

First Strike -- Washington Free Beacon

China omission of no-first-use nuclear doctrine in defense white paper signals policy shift.

China omitted a reference to its no-first-use strategic nuclear weapons doctrine in a recently published government white paper, indicating Beijing shifted the policy as part of its large-scale nuclear arms buildup.

The omission, along with recent comments by a senior Chinese military officer, is raising new concerns among Pentagon officials about China’s nearly opaque strategic arms buildup.

Chinese Maj. Gen. Yao Yunzhu, a senior researcher at China’s Academy of Military Science, revealed earlier this month that China is considering expanding its growing nuclear arsenal in response to U.S. missile defense deployments and upgrades.

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Update: China’s New Defense Paper Causes Stir Over No-First-Use Nuke Policy -- Global Security Newswire

My Comment: This Chinese omission of a no-first-use nuclear doctrine in their defense white paper is deliberate and it is a major policy shift. To put it bluntly .... they are stating that if threatened they will contemplate using nuclear weapons first.

A Major U.S. Intelligence Failure On Estimating China's Total Number Of Nuclear Weapons?

The U.S. military must consider both conventional and nuclear capabilities to “neutralize” China’s underground nuclear weapons storage facilities, according to a Pentagon authorization signed into law.

New U.S. Law Seeks Answers On Chinese Nuke Tunnels -- Defense News

TAIPEI — The U.S. military must consider both conventional and nuclear capabilities to “neutralize” China’s underground nuclear weapons storage facilities, according to a Pentagon authorization signed into law.

The new National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), signed by U.S. President Barack Obama on Jan. 2, orders the Commander of the U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM) to submit a report by Aug. 15 on the “underground tunnel network used by the People’s Republic of China with respect to the capability of the United States to use conventional and nuclear forces to neutralize such tunnels and what is stored within such tunnels.”

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My Comment: The part of this report that caught my eye was the following ....

.... The 2011 report, “Strategic Implications of China’s Underground Great Wall,” concluded that the number of nuclear weapons estimated by U.S. intelligence was incorrect. His team estimated that as many as 3,000 nuclear weapons could be hidden within a vast labyrinth in several locations in China. U.S. intelligence estimates have been reporting consistently that China had, at the most, 300 nuclear warheads in its arsenal.

Recent reports from Russia also paints a different picture .... projecting a stockpile of almost 1,000 nuclear warheads .... and not 300.

If this is true .... this is a major U.S. intelligence failure.

Are China's New Nuclear Missiles Threatening The 1987 U.S.-Russia Arms Treaty

Number The Nukes -- Washington Free Beacon

Ex-Russian strategic commander says new Chinese missiles threaten 1987 U.S.-Russia arms treaty.

A former commander of Russia’s nuclear forces warned the Obama administration this week that China’s short-range nuclear missiles are undermining the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty between the United States and Russia.

Retired Col. Gen. Viktor Yesin, a former commander of Russia’s Strategic Rocket Forces, also said in an interview with the Washington Free Beacon that U.S. and Western arms specialists have dramatically underestimated China’s nuclear arsenal. Beijing’s warhead arsenal, he said, likely is between 1,600 to 1,800 nuclear warheads and bombs.

Yesin met with Pentagon, military, State Department officials, and members of Congress and congressional staff Wednesday and Thursday.

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My Comment: it is not knowing what is happening behind the Chinese nuclear missile program that is most disconcerting to specialists in both Russia and the U.S.. And the fact that the Chinese are now revealing details of their program makes it even worse.

A New Plan For China’s Nuclear Arsenal?

Image credit: DOD photo by Erin A. Kirk-Cuomo

A New Game Plan For China’s Nuclear Arsenal? -- J. Michael Cole, The Diplomat

In a system where order and sequences have a highly symbolic value, Xi Jinping’s first promotion of a military officer to generalship, added to a high-profile visit last week, can tells us a few things about his priorities for the military and what to look out for in the future. More than any other branch of the People’s Liberation Army, the Second Artillery Corps — which controls the country’s conventional and nuclear ballistic missile arsenal — appears to be where Xi’s interest lies.

Xi’s first act as the newly appointed chairman of the powerful Central Military Commission (CMC) was to promote Lieutenant General Wei Fenghe, the 58-year-old commander-in-chief of the Second Artillery and a CMC member, to full general on November 23. Aside from increasing defense spending, the promotion of senior officers is regarded as the best way for Chinese leaders to consolidate their power over the armed forces.

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My Comment: The best analysis that I have read so far on what direction will China's new leader follow when it comes to his country's nuclear forces.

China's Nuclear Forces Larger Than Previous Estimates

China's road-mobile ICBMs. Chinese Defense

The Warhead Gap -- Washington Free Beacon

China’s tactical and theater nuclear force levels revealed by Russian general

China has nearly 750 theater and tactical nuclear warheads in addition to more than 200 strategic missile warheads, a stockpile far larger than U.S. estimates, according to a retired Russian general who once led Moscow’s strategic forces.

New details of China’s strategic and tactical nuclear warheads levels were disclosed by retired Col. Gen. Viktor Yesin, former commander of Russia’s Strategic Rocket Forces, during a conference several months ago. A copy of Yesin’s paper was translated last month by the Georgetown University Asian Arms Control Project and obtained by the Washington Free Beacon.

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My comment: If true .... this appears to be another U.S. intelligence failure.

U.S. Report: China To Deploy Submarine-Launched Nukes Within 2 Years

Silent service?: A Chinese submarine takes part in an international fleet review to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army Navy in Qingdao, Shandong Province, in April 2009. REUTERS/KYODO

China Submarines to Soon Carry Nuclear Weapons, Draft US Report Says -- Reuters

* Report urges China be brought into arms-limitation talks
* Submarine-launched nuclear warheads seen within 2 years
* China is accused of being "most threatening" power in cyberspace

WASHINGTON, Nov 8 (Reuters) - China appears to be within two years of deploying submarine-launched nuclear weapons, adding a new leg to its nuclear arsenal that should lead to arms-reduction talks, a draft report by a congressionally mandated U.S. commission says.

China in the meantime remains "the most threatening" power in cyberspace and presents the largest challenge to U.S. supply chain integrity, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission said in a draft of its 2012 report to the U.S. Congress.

China is alone among the original nuclear weapons states to be expanding its nuclear forces, the report said. The others are the United States, Russia, Britain and France.

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More News On China's Submarines Will Soon Be Carrying Nuclear Weapons

China 'is two years from arming its submarines with nuclear weapons', says U.S. report -- Daily Mail
Report: China Close To Arming Subs With Nukes -- Business Insider/The Telegraph
China Two Years Away From Deploying Nuclear Submarines: Report -- International Business Times
China Will Have Nuclear Subs in 2 Years -- Newser
China submarines to carry nuclear weapons within two years -- The Times (Subscription)
Here is what the US thinks it knows about China’s nuclear capabilities -- Quartz
Beijing's Senkaku goal: Sub 'safe haven' in South China Sea -- Japan Times

China Will Modernize Their Nuclear Arsenal In Response To A U.S.-Backed Missile Defense System

Missile Shield May Spark China Nuclear Upgrade: Officer -- Reuters

VIENNA (Reuters) - China may need to modernize its nuclear arsenal to respond to the destabilizing effect of a planned U.S.-backed missile defense system, a senior Chinese military officer said on Wednesday.

"It undermines the strategic stability," said Major General Zhu Chenghu of China's National Defense University about the U.S.-led development of a missile shield, which has also alarmed Russia.

"We have to maintain the credibility of deterrence," he told Reuters on the sidelines of a panel discussion on nuclear disarmament, referring to the military doctrine that an enemy will be deterred from using atomic arms as long as he can be destroyed as a consequence.

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My Comment: For a long time China has been quiet on how they would respond to a US missile defense system. I guess this statement makes their intentions very clear.

Secret Nuclear Talks With China?

China's road-mobile ICBMs. Pakistan Defense

Secret Talks With Chi-Coms -- Washington Free Beacon

Pentagon to sponsor a new round of Track Two nuclear arms talks with China’s military

Defense officials will conduct a new round of informal but official nuclear weapons talks with China in the near future focusing on the “red lines” used by both sides in readying strategic forces in crises, according to U.S. officials.

The latest round of the so-called “Track Two” nuclear talks is cloaked in secrecy to avoid upsetting Congress, which in 2000 imposed legal limits on official military exchanges with China involving nuclear forces.

The talks also come amid new tensions over intelligence reports indicating China provided North Korea with road-mobile launchers for a new long-range missile.

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My Comment: China has consistently said in the past that they are not interested in official strategic nuclear talks .... and my prediction is that they will continue with this stance.

China's Nuclear Forces Adopting MIRV Weapons

China's About To Outfit Its Subs With Controversial "First-Strike" Nuclear Warheads

While adding to its stockpile of almost 200 nuclear warheads, China is on the verge of arming itself with a new highly effective, multi-stage nuclear weapon.



The Washington Times devoted some attention to the new Pentagon report on China's military strategy and found the CCP is using this third missile to compliment its medium and long-range nukes.



This new armament is an intercontinental ballistic missile equipped with a multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV).



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My Comment: The Chinese are building and modernizing their entire military ..... their nuclear forces are no exception to this rule.

China Expanding It's Nuclear Arsenal

Image from FAS

China Augments Nuke Arsenal: Pentagon -- Global Security Newswire

China's nuclear arsenal is being augmented through development of a missile that is capable of carrying a number of warheads and can be moved between different locations, the U.S. Defense Department said in a report issued this week (see GSN, Aug. 25).



The yearly Pentagon assessment of Chinese military capabilities estimates that Beijing holds as many as 75 long-range missiles tipped with nuclear warheads, along with 120 intermediate- and medium-range systems, the Washington Times reported.



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More News On China's Growing Nuclear Arsenal

China expanding its nuclear stockpile -- Washington Times

Pentagon’s 2011 China Report: Reducing Nuclear Transparency -- FAS

China has strengthened nuclear missiles as deterrent against India: U.S. -- The Hindu

Pentagon warns India of Chinese build-up -- Times of India

WikiLeaks cables reveal fears over China's nuclear safety -- The Guardian

China Would Consider Using Nuclear Weapons First

DF-31A nuclear missiles of the PLA Second Artillery Force participated in the National Day parade. China Military Report

China Could Consider Nuclear First Use, Documents Indicate -- Global Security Newswire

Official Chinese records indicate the nation's armed forces would weigh the use of nuclear weapons against a nuclear-armed country attacking its cities or critical infrastructure, Kyodo News reported today (see GSN, Aug. 17, 2010).

The planning document, titled "Lowering the Threshold of Nuclear Threats," could increase worries about Beijing's nuclear deterrent in Washington, Tokyo and other capitals, according to the news agency. China has formally ruled out initiating a nuclear first strike against another power.

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My Comment: One more reason to be concerned about China.

Could China Someday Have More Nuclear Warheads Than The United States And Russia?

Illustration: China missile by Linas Garsys for The Washington Times

China And START: Missile Buildup May Surpass U.S., Russia As They Denuclearize -- Richard D. Fisher Jr., The Washington Times

Might China someday have more nuclear warheads than the United States? Than Russia? Inconceivable as it may sound, this could come to pass, because China may just be starting a period of double- or triple-digit annual growth in its warhead numbers as the Obama administration sets its sights on further U.S. warhead reductions, with little hope that China will join a regime of negotiated nuclear stability. But even if it did, would nuclear "parity" with China be in America's interest?

The new START Treaty signed in May commits the United States and Russia to a "parity" that reduces deployed nuclear warheads from 2,200 to 1,550 and reduces to 700 the number of deployed nuclear delivery vehicles. However, President Obama has made clear his intention to seek further reductions; late 2009 leaks to the press suggested further goals of 1,000 warheads or even fewer.

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My Comment: I have doubts that the Chinese are going to embark on a massive nuclear weapons program .... and I have even greater doubts that the Russians will permit them to have a larger nuclear stockpile .... Start Treaty or not. As for what the U.S. administration thinks .... Your guess is as good as mine.

China Spells Out It's Nuclear Arms Policy

Nuclear-capable missiles are displayed at a massive parade to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China on October 1, 2009 in Beijing. Getty Images

China Needs Weapons to Deter Nuclear Attack, Military Paper Says -- Wall Street Journal

SHANGHAI—China needs weapons capable of retaliating against any nuclear attack on the country, according to a commentary in the nation's main military newspaper that sought to explain the strategic thinking behind Beijing's push to modernize its atomic arsenal.

The commentary, published Thursday in the official Liberation Army Daily, also reiterated China's longstanding stated policy that it "will never be the first to use nuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstances."

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More News On China's Nuclear Policy Statement

China military paper spells out nuclear arms stance -- Reuters
China Details Nuclear Strategy -- Global Security Newswire
China Publishes Own Nuclear Doctrine -- Hamsayeh.net

China's Nuclear Forces And The Development Of A Conventional Warhead Missile

Visitors walk past China's second nuclear missile on display as they visit
the Military Museum in Beijing Photo: GETTY

China Nuclear Arms -- Washington Times

China's strategic nuclear forces remain shrouded in secrecy, but a new report this week identified the key location of Beijing's tightly guarded underground nuclear-weapons storage base.

The report by the Project 2049 Institute, a private China affairs research group, also suggests the Chinese military is working on a long-range conventional warhead missile capability. The conclusion is based on indicators that China is not building nuclear warheads as fast as it is deploying large numbers of long-range missiles.

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My Comment: The problem with developing a missile that will be used only as a conventional weapon is that when it is launched .... no one on the other side will know if it is a conventional or nuclear missile launch. This Chinese policy of developing a conventional warhead missile .... if true .... is going to raise tensions on the Asian continent that will not bode well for anyone, and will only heighten nuclear fears and counter measures.