Is This The Design For China's New Stealth Bomber?

A crude mockup of the structural design for what could be China's first stealth bomber.

Is This China's New Design For A Stealth Bomber? -- Foreign Policy

The model airplanes that could one day change the global balance of power.

You're looking at what some people are speculating is China's design for a stealth bomber. It may look like a simple model right now. But these Chinese models have a habit of turning into working airplanes. And if that happens in this case, watch out. Because it could potential give these Chinese the ability to penetrate deep, deep into enemy territory without the opponents ever knowing what hit them.

Remember, designs very similar to China's J-31 stealth fighter and its Li Jian stealthy-ish drone appeared as trade show models only two years before full-size versions of the planes were revealed in the past year.

The latest plane resembles a cross between Russia's PAK DA stealth bomber design, it's T-50 PAK FA stealth fighter and Northrop's YF-23 Black Widow -- the stealth jet that lost the contest to be the world's first fifth-generation fighter to Lockheed Martin's YF-22 Raptor. (The cockpit also resembles this fictional monstrosity.)

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My Comment: This is just a model .... but it appears that China is now focused on developing a stealth bomber .... and by releasing these pictures they are telling the world that they are intent to develop and manufacture it.

A Look At China's 'Top Guns'

Can China's Top Guns Fly? -- John Garnaut, Foreign Policy

The Chinese military is aiming high. But can its Air Force break through all the red tape?

The Chinese Air Force plane drifted past a city and seemed to float, like a leaf, before exploding onto a mudflat where the Shandong peninsula juts out into the Yellow Sea.

"It was floating, floating, floating then BANG, suddenly hit the ground," says a witness, according to video footage of the smoking wreckage on March 31 that was anonymously uploaded on the Chinese version of YouTube.

The huge plume of black smoke, still billowing from the wreckage 20 minutes after it exploded, suggests the tanks were full and the accident occurred not long after takeoff, probably from Jinan, the provincial capital.

Perhaps there had been a fuel blockage on one of the external wing tanks, leading to a weight imbalance that contributed to the Soviet-made Su-27 20 entering a flat spin before descending like a kite to earth, according to retired and serving Air Force officers.

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My Comment: My gut tells me that China's 'Top Guns' can fly .... but they are going through their growing pains right now.

Is The J-31 China's Next Generation Carrier-Borne Fighter Jet

The J-31 during testing. Photo: via Alert5.com

China’s Newest Stealth Fighter May Head to Sea, State Media Says -- Danger Room

China’s latest stealth fighter prototype could be deployed aboard the Chinese navy’s first aircraft carrier, eventually allowing Beijing to deploy radar-evading warplanes all over the world — although it’ll have to overcome some serious constraints.

The twin-engine J-31, which made its public debut in blurry photographs snapped at the Shenyang Aircraft Company airfield in northeastern China in late October, “may become China’s next generation carrier-borne fighter jet,” according to the government-owned Global Times newspaper. “News” from China’s state media, including Global Times, essentially can be read as official announcements.

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My Comment: The Chinese media are also openly speculating on this possibility. For more info on the J-31, go here.

The Rise Of China's Air Force Is Raising Concerns Across Asia

China Is No Paper Tiger -- Strategy Page

March 1, 2013: American air power planners (air force and navy) are scrambling to adapt to the fact that China is creating a Western style air force, not just with modern aircraft but with modern training methods and tactics as well. While China has only about 500 modern aircraft (comparable to the American F-15/16/18/22), it’s their improved training that is most worrisome. The U.S., Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea have over five times as many such aircraft and well trained pilots. China, however, is rapidly closing the gap. In another decade or so, China will have at least two thousand modern warplanes and, if they keep at it, pilots close to the capability of their Western counterparts.

China is also devoting a lot of effort to developing modern electronics for their fighters. This is one area where their massive Internet based espionage effort may have given their air force an edge. The exact operating characteristics of military electronics are kept secret, because if the enemy has this data they can better develop countermeasures and other unpleasant surprises for the first weeks of combat. No one wants to talk about this, the better to keep the enemy guessing. When the shooting starts the guessing stops and it’s feared that China may have more of those deadly surprises.

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My Comment: The Chinese have made their intentions very clear .... their goal in the next few decades is is to have a military capability that is #1 in Asia .... Air Force included.

Update: The Chinese are certainly spending the money on their military.

Everyone Is Starting To Notice China`s Air Force

China's J-20 Stealth Fighter, China Defense Blog

China’s Air Force: Ready For Take Off? -- Oriana Skylar Mastro and Michael S. Chase, The Diplomat

As China’s power and influence continues to grow, the question of how it will behave in the international system looms over the heads of decision makers in almost every capital in the world. Though Chinese intentions are unknown, and likely not yet determined even by the top leadership, China’s global interests are growing and Beijing’s need to protect them is undoubtedly increasing. This has clearly put a premium on developing the air and naval capabilities needed to project power beyond China’s borders into the Asia-Pacific as well as space and cyberspace.

As China’s leadership grapples with these broader questions, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been making some significant leadership choices that provide insight into how the CCP will handle these challenges. On Sunday the Party leadership promoted army general Fan Changlong and former commander of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) General Xu Qiliang to serve as vice chairmen of the Central Military Commission (CMC), the powerful Party body that controls China’s rapidly modernizing armed forces.

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My Comment: U.S. military leaders have been raising the alarms for a quite a long time on what China is doing with its air force .... it appears that some are now taking notice. A good review on China's jet fighter program is here.

China's Newest Stealth Fighter The J-31 Has It's Maiden Flight

J-31

China's Newest Stealth Fighter Flies -- Foreign Policy

If these pictures are real, then China has flown two new types of stealth fighters in less than two years. You're looking at what's supposedly the newly unveiled Shenyang Aircraft Corporation's J-31 jet flying in the skies over China on Oct. 31.

Chinese military blogs claim these extremely grainy photos (above and below) show the jet taking a 10-minute test flight accompanied by a J-11 fighter (a reverse engineered version of the Russian Sukhoi Su-27).

The first photos of the Shenyang J-31 emerged on the Chinese Internet forums last month.

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More News On China's Newest Stealth Fighter

J-31 fighter roars off on maiden flight -- Global Times
China's 2nd stealth fighter makes debut -- Global Times
China’s Newest Stealth Fighter Takes Flight -- Danger Room
PICTURES: New Chinese fighter conducts maiden flight -- Flight Global
China’s New J-31 Stealth Fighter Takes Off on Maiden Flight -- Defense Update

WNU Editor: Now what they need is a better engine.

China's Third J-20 Stealth Fighter?

China's J-20 Stealth Fighter, China Defense Blog

This Might Be China's Third J-20 Stealth Fighter -- Foreign Policy

A quick update on China's stealth fighter program: Photos newly published on a Chinese Web sites show what might be a third prototype J-20 stealth jet.

China has two different types of stealthy-looking fighters: the large J-20 and the smaller J-31. Many speculate that because of its large size, the J-20 is high-speed interceptor designed to fly out and shoot down enemy bombers -- similar to the old Soviet MiG-25 Foxbat -- or that it is a high-speed stealthy bomber designed to use a combination of stealth and speed to penetrate enemy air defenses and fire cruise missiles or bombs at targets such as bases or ships.

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My Comment: A good review on China's jet fighter program is here.

China Bets Big On It's Stealth Fighter Program

J-31. Photo from Aviation Week

China’s New Stealth Fighter Gambit -- James Hardy, The Diplomat

Was the jet crafted from stolen intelligence? Could it be used on China's new aircraft carrier? With photos appearing online of another Chinese stealth fighter, questions are mounting.

China’s defense industry seems to be up to its new trick of unveiling its latest toy when a senior U.S. official visits Beijing.

Following the playbook established in January 2011 when Chengdu’s J-20 stealth fighter had its maiden test flight just in time to overshadow the visit of then-Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, rival aerospace firm Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (SAC) accidentally-on-purpose allowed some high-definition images of its own fifth-generation fighter jet to appear on the web over the weekend. Coincidentally, current Pentagon chief Leon Panetta had just kicked off an Asian tour that included a stopover in Beijing.

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My Comment: I suspect that the Chinese still have a long way to go before they can match the U.S. Air Force .... but they are making an effort.

Making Sense Of China’s Second ‘Stealth’ Fighter Prototype

Shenyang J-21. Photo: via China Defense Blog

Double Vision: Making Sense of China’s Second ‘Stealth’ Fighter Prototype -- Wall Street Journal

In the span of a week, Chinese government vessels have been dispatched to waters near the contested Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, anti-Japanese riots have erupted in major Chinese cities — and a new highly-prestigious piece of military hardware has been unveiled.

As if U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta didn’t have enough to contend with on his current China visit, photos leaked online on Sunday suggest Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (SAC) is making substantial progress on a stealth aircraft prototype, which Chinese netizens and foreign analysts have variously dubbed the “J-21,” “J-31,” and “F60”—a possible future export variant. SAC itself seems to have painted a “31001” designation on the aircraft. (For purposes of consistency, we will henceforth refer to the aircraft as the “J-31.”) The timing of the photo release echoes the events surrounding former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates’ January 2011 visit to China, when the PLA conducted a surprise test flight of Chengdu Aircraft Corporation (CAC)’s J-20 late-generation strike fighter prototype.

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My Comment: Another must read post on new developments in China's developing air-force.

Is China`s Military Jet Engine Program About To Start

Is China About To Get Its Military Jet Engine Program Off the Ground? --Wall Street Journal

Tensions in the South China Sea—most recently with the Philippines—and Beijing’s unease about Washington’s renewed strategic focus on Asia are likely to strengthen calls from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) for more modern fighters and strike aircraft. Russia has historically supplied the high performance military jet engines that power these craft. However, China’s defense industry is working hard to become capable of mass producing Chinese-made military jet engines in order to end dependence on Russia, give China maximum strategic flexibility, and begin to compete with Russian-made combat aircraft in export markets.

But how soon is China’s domestic jet engine effort likely to achieve lift-off?

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My Comment: Their spies have been effective in stealing America`s jet fighter secrets .... so I suspect that the next stage .... manufacturing and assembling the necessary components .... will be the next step.

China's J-20 Built With Russian Military Jet Engines And Spare Parts

Chinese ‘Mighty Dragon’ Doomed To Breathe Russian Fire -- RT

While Beijing is proudly leaking more images of J-20 fifth-generation stealth fighter jet, China continues to buy Russian military jet engines and spare parts, which might indicate China is in a technological deadlock.

­China is making an attempt to catch up with world leaders and develop hi-tech vehicles in the absence of crucial military know-how and technology, like engines for ultrasonic cruise flights and active phased array antennas.

“As of now, it is too early to say that China is capable of creating a fifth-generation jet from start to finish,” told RT Vasily Kashin from the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.

“As of now, it is too early to say that China is capable of creating a fifth-generation jet from start to finish,” told RT Vasily Kashin from the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.

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My Comment: In short .... Russian officials are saying that China's touted "fifth generation fighter" is just a collection of Russian parts. That may be true for now .... but China has an uncanny ability to take what is the best out there, and manufacture it cheaper and quicker than anyone else. My prediction .... they will probably be doing the same with their jet fighters in the next few years while mesmerizing U.S. officials on how they are able to mass produce (for cheap) vast numbers of fighter aircraft while our fighter jets are overpriced and suffering from cutbacks in production orders.

A V/STOL Chinese Fighter?

China May Be Flight Testing A V/STOL Fighter -- Defense Tech

We heard a little chatter about this earlier in the month; apparently China is test flying its own vertical/short take-off and landing fighter jet dubbed the J-18. According to my old colleague Wendell Minnick at Defense News, the jet is similar in appearance to Russia’s Su-33 carrier based evolution of Sukhoi’s famous Su-27 line.

(The image above is a Soviet-designed Yak-141 VTOL fighter; recognize that rotating rear nozzle and forward lift-fan design?)

While the flight of a Chinese V/STOL aircraft is unconfirmed, the aircraft’s existence would make sense as Minnick’s article ably points out.

China’s defense industry is largely opaque and it is difficult to substantiate Internet chatter. However, Chinese-language military blogs reported the first test flight of the stealthy J-20 Black Eagle fighter in January, much to the surprise of the Western media.

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My Comment: The Chinese have made it very clear that they want to have a military that has a global reach with all the necessary tools and equipment to make it possible. A V/STOL aircraft will be just one of those tools.

Is This China's First Stealth Fighter?

First Chinese Stealth Fighter Ready For Takeoff? -- Time Magazine

Aviation buffs are buzzing over blurry photographs now surfacing on Chinese military websites purporting to show Beijing's first stealth fighter jet, the Chengdu J-20 fighter. Chinese aviation fans says they have been snapping pics of the jet during recent taxi tests, with a first flight likely still weeks away. It's the best holiday gift Western air power advocates could wish for -- or further evidence of the self-licking ice cream cone nature of defense spending. Most likely, both.

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Update #1: Is This China’s First Stealth Fighter? -- The Danger Room
Update #2: China's Stealth Striker -- Ares/Aviation Week
Update #3: Hints of a Chinese Stealth plane J-20 surprise US analysts -- Daily Mail times
Update #4: Photo–NextGen Chicom fighter jet or Photoshop? -- ELP Defens(c)e Blog

My Comment: I suspect that some aviation experts are being called into the office this morning to give an assessment on this plane.

China Is In The Process Of Creating An Almost Impregnable Air Defence System

China’s Eyes in the Skies -- The Diplomat

The PLA is in the process of creating an almost impregnable air defence system for China. Washington should take note.

The recent deployment of China's first four indigenous KJ-2000 AWACS aircraft marks an important milestone in the PLA Air Force’s long march from being a ‘numbers intensive’ low technology force, to a much more modern high technology one.

More fundamentally, though, the AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System) extends China's deep and broad network of air defence Command Control Communications Intelligence Surveillance Reconnaissance (C3ISR) systems into a key airborne area. In doing so, China is now acquiring the radar and passive early warning and air defence command, control and communications it needs to counter foreign fighters and cruise missiles.

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Update: China’s New Eyes in the Skies -- Defense Tech

My Comment: China has the technology, the people, the resources, the money .... and more importantly .... the will to implement a comprehensive air defense policy. But the big story is not China's evolving air defense strategy .... a strategy that will probably take a decade or two to implement (if not more) .... the big story is that China's air defense strategy encompasses a bigger strategy, which is to have a military that will not only match the U.S. and other countries in the region .... but to surpass it by the latter half of this century.

China Air Force Won’t Rule The Skies Any Time Soon

China Won’t Rule The Skies -- The Diplomat

One of the persistent characteristics of the F-22 Raptor fighter programme over its 25-year history has been the propensity of supposed experts to misjudge the plane’s capabilities. Accounts periodically appear about how this or that new radar has ‘unmasked’ the stealthy aircraft—and all of them have been wrong.

Other reports wrongly describe the performance features, mission potential and maintenance costs of on-board equipment. And then there are the stories concerning how soon potential adversaries of the United States such as Russia or China will field their own ‘fifth generation’ fighters.

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My Comment:I have the advantage of being a regular visitor to China since the mid 1980s. I have seen the country change from a rural and backward society into what it is today .... a fast and growing super power that believes anything is possible.

Has this culture permeated the Chinese military .... including the air force. I would be surprised if it has not. Everyone in China is engulfed in the belief that the future is theirs, and that planning and hard work will achieve this. The Chinese air force may be a minor and insignificant player in today's world .... but they do not see it that way. Their view is long term .... and what they are looking at is developing an air force that will be a major player in 20 years or more. With this view .... I give them excellent odds that they will be successful.

China's Pursuit Of A 5th Generation Fighter

Photo: PLAAF Deputy Commander Gen. He Weirong

China's Fifth-Generation Fighters and the Changing Strategic Balance -- Jamestown Foundation

On November 9, General He Weirong, deputy commander of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), confirmed long-standing speculations that the PLAAF is developing fifth-generation fighters (fourth-generation in Chinese standard), which may be in service within 8 to 10 years, and certainly by 2020. During an interview with state-owned China Central Television (CCTV) two days ahead of the 60th anniversary of the PLAAF on November 11, Deputy Commander He announced that the next-generation fighter would soon undergo its first flight, closely followed by flight trials (Xinhua News Agency, November 9). The senior military officer's disclosure reflects the considerable progress that the PLAAF has made in force modernization, which has exceeded Western expectations in terms of the pace of development and the capabilities of its defense industrial base. While China remains several steps behind the United States in operationalizing its advanced fighter jets, the PLA's rapid military modernization has raised concerns among U.S. allies in the region that the military balance is beginning to tilt toward China's favor.

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More News On China;s 5th Generation Fighter

chinaChina expects fifth generation fighter in 10 years -- Flight Global
The new Chinese stealth fighter will be ready within 10 years -- Avionews
Air force to be armed with new generation of jets -- People's Daily

Do The Chinese Have A 5th Generation Jet Fighter In The Pipeline?

Lt Col Wade Tolliver, 27 FS director of operations, delivers the second permanent F/A-22 at Langley AFB on 8 June 2005 photo by TSgt Ben Bloker

DIA On China's New fighter -- The Washington Times

The Defense Intelligence Agency is sticking by its estimates of when China will deploy a fifth-generation jet fighter after recent remarks by a Chinese general that Beijing's most advanced jet could be fielded by 2017 - years earlier than U.S. intelligence projections.

"We believe that first flight of a Chinese fifth-generation fighter will occur in the next few years; however, we also believe it will take about 10 years before the [People's Liberation Army] begins to operationally deploy a fifth-generation fighter in meaningful numbers," DIA spokesman Donald Black told Inside the Ring.

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My Comment: I have trouble seeing the Chinese being able to develop a 5th Generation aircraft in such a short period of time. The only way this is possible is if they have been successful in stealing the blue prints for the F-22, and that they have a complete understanding on what each of the hundreds of thousands components on the plane are capable of doing.

I know that the Chinese are good at copying technology, and they are also good at manufacturing .... but to be able to do this at the same sophisticated level of U.S. jet manufacturers .... nope. I am sure that the Chinese will eventually develop a fifth generation aircraft .... but not in the next 5-10 years.