From Foreign Policy Blog:How the crisis in the North Caucasus could go global.The daily and deadly news from Russia's restive North Caucasus region -- police buildings blown up in Ingushetia, human rights activists murdered in Chechnya, firefights in Dagestan -- makes it clear that the insurgency there is far from finished, despite Moscow's frequent claims of victory. The conflict has splintered and metastasized, with atrocities carried out by both sides. Guerrillas are increasingly turning to suicide attacks, and they do not rule out more mass hostage takings, like the 2004 Beslan school seizure. Human rights activists and rivals of Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov are murdered in Moscow, the Chechen capital, and abroad with impunity.
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My Comment: When the Soviet Union was first being formed after the 1917 revolution, many of the Muslim Republics in the Caucasus and Central Asia refused to join in, starting a low level insurgency campaign that lasted for almost 10 years.
It was brought to a close when individuals like Stalin and those like him .... using the security and intelligence forces .... began a massive campaign to systematically kill or deport suspected civilian populations. The suffering and dislocation of peoples is still felt in these Republics today .... which in turn brings about the anger and resentment that is now directed at Moscow.
Will history repeat itself? .... I give it a small but possible chance that Russia will repeat the same tactics and strategy that was used from 1917 - 1929. However .... if Islamic radicals become a threat to the very existence of the Russian Federation .... I will up these odds closer to 100%
