How India And Japan Are Facing A Rising China

BBC

In the Shadow of China’s Rise -- James R. Holmes, The Diplomat

On Thursday the Naval Diplomat will have the privilege of moderating a roundtable featuring Vice Admiral Yoji Koda, a former commander-in-chief of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force fleet, and Admiral Sureesh Mehta, a former chief of naval staff of the Indian Navy. That's distinguished company for your humble scribe to keep. The panel will take place at this year's China Maritime Studies Institute conference, which is probing "China's Evolving Surface Fleet." That should make for a bracing mix of perspectives on the PLA Navy.

Think about the asymmetries between the two seafaring Asian states. Japan faces China across the congested Yellow Sea, an operating ground for both the JMSDF and PLA Navy fleets. The island state also lies well within striking range of shore-based Chinese sea power, manifest in tactical aircraft, antiship cruise missiles, and antiship ballistic missiles. The PLA Navy surface fleet is a beneficiary of extended-range fire support from Fortress China — and all mariners know a ship's a fool to fight a fort. The JMSDF, then, executes its daily routine under the shadow of an unseen but imposing arsenal.

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My Comment: For Japan .... when it comes to China their focus is on the navy. For India .... it is on the land and on China's Army. As for the U.S. ..... their focus is on everyone.

Military Breakdown Of Chinese, Japanese, And Taiwanese Forces

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My Comment: The Japanese do not have the numbers .... so they better have the quality.

Asia's Territorial Disputes Are Raising Tensions

Powder Keg In The Pacific -- Foreign Policy

China is rising -- fast and furious. So why can't the rest of Asia get its act together?

Over the past decade, East Asian countries have surprised observers with their eagerness to work together. After all, this is a region where ancient (and not-so-ancient) hatreds run deep. But observers shouldn't get their hopes up: Modern rivalries and historical baggage still stand in the way of transforming these arrangements into genuine regional cooperation.

On paper, progress appears to be occurring rapidly. In 2010, China, Australia, and New Zealand implemented free trade arrangements with the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), providing preferential access to each others' markets. China, Japan and South Korea are negotiating a free trade agreement. Even erstwhile enemies China and Taiwan entered into an economic agreement that reduces trade barriers such as tariffs and quotas on both sides: trade between Taiwan and China reached $128 billion in 2011, a 13 percent increase from the previous year, when the agreement went into effect.

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My Comment: This article makes my point when I say that culturally .... Asia is thousands of years old. Economically .... they will be the world's engine for growth for the next century. But politically .... the entire region is still immature, and it is this immaturity that can bring about conflicts that we may regret later on.

Asia's Escalating Territorial Disputes

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Australia Defense Association

In Asia, A Wave Of Escalating Territorial Disputes -- Washington Post

TOKYO — The disputed islands and islets in Asia are, on the whole, an unimpressive bunch. Most are rocky, windswept outcroppings far from any mainland. One has a lighthouse but no people.

But these tiny territories, sweeping from southeast to northeast Asia, are fiercely contested among countries that are buoyed by nationalism and by a growing thirst for the natural resources off their shores. At a time when the United States has promised to play a greater role in Asia, some security experts say the territories represent the region’s greatest potential flash point aside from North Korea.

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My Comment: In almost all of these disputes, the central figure is China. Is this a coincidence?

Defense Ministers Meet In Asia

PRESS PHOTO - U.S. Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, left, and Chinese Defense Minister Gen. Liang Guanglie shake hands as they pose for the press in Hanoi, Vietnam, Oct. 11, 2010. DOD photo by U.S. Air Force Master Sgt. Jerry Morrison

U.S. and China Soften Tone Over Disputed Seas -- New York Times

HANOI, Vietnam — The United States and China sought to defuse tensions over disputed territorial seas on Tuesday, with Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates urging nations to honor historic rights of free transit through international waters and his Chinese counterpart saying the region has nothing to fear from Beijing’s armed forces.

The statement by Mr. Gates to a forum of Asian defense ministers was emphatic in calling on all countries that share the South China Sea to renounce threats or coercion in resolving their competing claims of sovereignty.

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More News On Tensions In Asia

Tensions Ease in Asia, U.S. Says -- Wall Street Journal
U.S. sees crisis fears easing over South China Sea -- Reuters
Asian military ties warm at Hanoi defence meeting -- BBC News
Defense Ministers Arrive for Meeting in Vietnam -- New York Times
First ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting-Plus Opens In Vietnam -- RTT News
China to enhance co-op with ASEAN+8 in humanitarian aid, disaster relief -- Xinhuanet
Gates Raises Concerns About China's Territorial Disputes With Asian Neighbors -- Radio Free Europe
U.S. Aims to Mend China Military Ties -- Wall Street Journal
U.S. Defense chief meets with Chinese counterpart -- L.A. Times
Asian Security Meeting to Test China, U.S. Approach on Disputes -- Bloomberg
Gates: U.S. hails steps for maritime 'code of conduct' -- CNN
Gates: U.S. has 'national interest' in Asian sea disputes -- Washington Post
The start of something big? -- The Economist

The Strategic Center Of The World Is Shifting To The Western Pacific/Indian Ocean

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Western Pacific, Indian Ocean Now Strategic Center of the World -- Defense Tech

So says Robert Kaplan, influential (particularly inside the Pentagon) author and semi-resident at various Washington DC think tanks. We highlighted some comments from Kaplan the other day at a conference on security and climate change. On a conference call with reporters Friday discussing his new Foreign Affairs piece, “The Geography of Chinese Power,” Kaplan argued for shifting our strategic focus from the Middle East to WESTPAC. The key area to watch closely is the South China Sea, as important in the 21st century as the Gulf was in in the 20th.

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My Comment: I completely agree with Robert Kaplan's assessment.

Should we be surprised .... no. More than half of the world's population lives here, and as they rush to modernize their societies .... coupled with the political/military/economic tensions that will result from this growth .... one can then only imagine the incredible dynamism and energy that it will produce.

Will this "strategic shift" impact us in the near future .... I say that it is impacting us right now.

Welcome To The New World Order

PM Manmohan Singh joins hands with ASEAN leaders
at the 7th ASEAN-India Summit. PTI Photo

Asian Nations Look To 'Lead World' -- AFP

HUA HIN, Thailand — Asian leaders discussed plans at a major summit Saturday to "lead the world" by forming an EU-style community, while urging action from pariah states North Korea and Myanmar.

The premiers of regional giants China and India also sought to foster unity on the sidelines of the regional summit in Thailand after months of trading barbs over long-standing territorial issues.

Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's proposal for an East Asian community that could take a leading role in global efforts to recover from the economic crisis took centre stage on Saturday.

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Update: ASEAN Plus Three strive to prepare regional reserve pool for kick-off -- China View

My Comment: What was perceived as a remote idea 10 years ago is rapidly becoming a reality today .... an Asian economic union among the major Asian economic powers and smaller states. The ultimate goal from this union will probably be the following .... and taking a few decades to get there .... the development of a NATO type of military alliance followed by some form of political union .... a process that we can say is only happening now.

Is Asia rising .... looking at it from the outside, I will have to say yes.

Asian Summit Of Major Powers Concludes

President Hu Jintao of China, center, met with Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama of Japan, left, and President Lee Myung-bak of South Korea in Beijing on Saturday. Pool photograph by Jason Lee

China, South Korea, Japan Leaders Hold Summit Meeting -- Voice of America

China says North Korea wants better ties with the United States, Japan and South Korea. Leaders from the three Asian countries met Saturday in Beijing.

North Korea, and its nuclear programs, topped the agenda during a summit in Beijing that brought together Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama.

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More News On This Summit

Asia’s Biggest Economies Promise Greater Cooperation -- New York Times
China, Japan, SKorea discuss North Korea nukes -- AP
Leaders Display Rare Solidarity -- Korea Times
New order takes shape in East -- The Telegraph
FACTBOX: Japan's ties and tensions with China, South Korea -- Reuters

Asia Rising

Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama

Hatoyama to Promote Idea of Asia Bloc -- Wall Street Journal

At Trilateral Summit, Japan Aims to Persuade China and South Korea to Back EU-Inspired Regional Alliance.

TOKYO -- When the leaders of Japan, China and South Korea meet for a trilateral summit in Beijing on Saturday, Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama will try to persuade his counterparts to share his vision that Asia needs its own economic bloc.

Since taking office last month, Mr. Hatoyama has repeatedly discussed his desire to create what he calls an East Asian Community, a regional alliance inspired by the European Union. The meeting will be the first major test of his plan, which faces obstacles that include regional rivalries and decades of mistrust following the Second World War.

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My Comment: Anti-Japanese resentment is very strong throughout Asia. I am sure that Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama must know this .... but he is looking at the long term picture .... and with time (he knows) there will be an Asian economic block.

Is An Asian Economic Bloc About To Form?

Shipping containers sit in stacks at the Brani container terminal in Singapore on October 29, 2008. Vivek Prakash / Reuters

Fortress Asia: Is a Powerful New Trade Bloc Forming? -- Time Magazine

The Great Recession hasn't been great for free trade. As unemployment rose and consumer demand dried up throughout much of the world, governments have been more focused on protecting their own industries and workers than making the compromises necessary to promote international commerce. The U.S., typically an enthusiastic trade promoter, included "Buy American" clauses in its stimulus package and propped up its flailing auto industry with handouts that in better times would have been criticized as unfair subsidies. Although a meeting of ministers in New Delhi in early September promised to restart long-stalled World Trade Organization negotiations aimed at reaching a new, global consensus on freer trade, wide differences remain between the developed and developing world that make a final deal difficult.

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My Comment: If Asia can organize itself to form an economic bloc/union, it would only a question of time before they then start to form a military bloc.

Asia still has a lot of history to overcome, and there are regional powers in competition with each other .... namely Japan, China, and India. But the same was said about Europe 100 years ago .... and look where they are today.

Asia To Lead World Arms Spending By 2016

From Defense Talk:

Singapore: Asia is expected to outstrip the rest of the world in defence spending within seven years as China and India upgrade their armed forces, a research consultancy said here Thursday.

Asia's overall defence budget will account for 32 percent of global military spending by 2016, or 480 billion US dollars, up from 24 percent in 2007, Frost and Sullivan's regional director for defence practice Ratan Shrivastava said.

North America, the biggest defence spender in 2007 with 39 percent of the world arms market, will see its share fall to 29 percent or 435 billion dollars, he said at a conference organised by the company.

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My Comment: One should not be surprised. While the focus is on arms agreements with Russia and the small dirty wars that occur in Afghanistan or Iraq, the real weapons procurement and growth will be Asia.

With more than half of the world's population, the fastest growing economy, and a very long history of conflict and warfare .... it is only natural that these countries will revert to their past positions of powerful armies and political/economic conflict.

Secretary Of State Clinton's Trip To Asia

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton delivers a speech upon her arrival at Haneda international airport in Tokyo, Japan, Monday, Feb. 16, 2009. Clinton arrived in Tokyo on her first trip abroad as President Barack Obama's chief diplomat with a warning to North Korea that it needs to live up to its commitments to dismantle its nuclear programs. (AP Photo/JAPAN POOL)

Will Beijing Respond to Clinton's Wish List? -- Time Magazine

North Korea has a long history of communicating with the United States through provocation and brinksmanship, and it has played to type ahead of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's four-nation trip to Asia that began Sunday. In recent weeks, Pyongyang has annulled its maritime border with South Korea, renounced the nonaggression agreement between the two countries, and moved missiles and equipment around in ways that could signal preparations for a launch, according to U.S. officials.

For her part, Secretary Clinton has responded with understated coolness, continuing the State Department practice of publicly and privately encouraging the North not to do anything stupid. On Friday, she told reporters, "We hope that North Korea will refrain from provocative actions and words at this point." And before her departure, U.S. diplomatic sources say, the State Department weighed in with the Chinese in hopes that they can dissuade any bad behavior by Kim Jong Il.

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U.S. Secretary Of State Clinton And Her Trip To Asia

Clinton makes Asia first destination as top diplomat -- ABC News (Australia)
U.S. Secretary Of State In Asia To Talk Economy, Climate, Proliferation -- Radio Free Europe
Clinton Chooses Asia for Her Maiden Overseas Trip -- The Times
Clinton arrives in Japan, praises US-Asia ties -- AFP
Clinton starts Asia trip with warm words for Japan -- Reuters
Clinton lands in Japan amid worst economic news in 40 years -- CBC
Clinton Promises to Press Rights Issues with China -- Los Angeles Times
China Is at the Heart of Clinton's First Trip -- Washington Post
Clinton Aims to Make Her Mark in China -- Los Angeles Times
NKorea may distract from Clinton message to Asia -- AP
Clinton warns North Korea during Tokyo visit -- AP
Clinton, Heading Abroad, Takes Softer Tone on North Korea -- New York Times
Clinton Discounts North Korea Uranium Threat -- Washington Times
Clinton Criticizes Bush on N. Korea -- Washington Post
Clinton Offers N. Korea Normal Ties, Peace Treaty, If It Disarms -- VOA
FACTBOX-Issues to be raised on Clinton's Asia trip -- Reuters

Asia Rising

Beijing's rapidly growing military spending, estimated at $US85 billion to $US125 billion ($93 billion to $137 billion) last year, is still dwarfed by the United States (file photo) (Reuters: stringer Shanghai)(ABC News Australia)

Intelligence Community Sees Asia Rising
-- U.S. Department Of Defense

U.S. intelligence planners predict the 21st century will be the time for the rise of Asia, the director of national intelligence said Feb. 12.

Dennis C. Blair told the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence that “China and India are restoring positions they held in the 18th century when China produced approximately 30 percent and India 15 percent of the world’s wealth.”

While the current global economic crisis will slow growth in China and India, the two countries are likely to become the world’s third and fourth largest economies by 2025. China’s emergence as a world power is affecting the regional balance of power in Asia, Blair said in a prepared statement.

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My Comment: Asia has the population, the resources, and the cultural and political components to be the focus and engine of growth for the world in the 21rst century.

This Department memo is a good summary of what is happening in the Far East.