How The Armenian - Azerbaijan Conflict Can Erupt Into All-Out War

Insight: If Caucasus Erupts, War Could Spread -- New York Times/Reuters

LINE OF CONTACT, Azerbaijan (Reuters) - A dusty trench, interrupted every few meters by lookout posts and gun positions, winds its way as far as the eye can see.

"Put your head above the trench and they'll shoot you," says a young ethnic Armenian soldier, peering through a narrow slit in a concrete watchtower at Azeri lines 400 meters away where he says snipers lie in wait.

The bullets fly both ways. On the other side of the minefields, Khosrov Shukurov's daughter was recently shot in the arm. The 70-year-old Azeri farmer keeps his cows on leashes to stop them straying beyond the wall built to protect his village.

Read more ....

My Comment: These two sides have been in a state of conflict for centuries. And while I do not expect a full fledged war to break out .... Russia has a huge military presence in the Caucasus that would not permit such a conflict to spread .... the destruction and mayhem that it would cause would only harden feelings and bitterness on both sides that would forever finish any hope of coming to some peaceful resolution in the next decade or two.

NATO Secretary General Accuses Azerbaijan Of Harming Peace Efforts With Armenia

NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen poses during an interview with Reuters at the Alliance headquarters in Brussels September 3, 2012. (Reuters)

NATO Chief Accuses Azerbaijan Of Harming Peace Efforts -- Reuters

(Reuters) - NATO's chief accused Azerbaijan of undermining peace efforts with its neighbor Armenia by pardoning a soldier who had murdered an Armenian and warned the countries on Friday they must not return to war.

NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said he was "deeply concerned" about Azerbaijan's decision to clear Ramil Safarov and its impact on the Caucasus Mountain countries' still simmering dispute over the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

"There must be no return to conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan," Rasmussen told students during a visit to a diplomatic academy in Azerbaijan's capital Baku. "There is no military solution" to the dispute, he added.

Read more ....

Update: NATO warns against ‘glorification’ of Azerbaijan killer -- Al Arabiya/AFP

My Comment: NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen is right ... but Azerbaijan is not listening.

Tensions Rise Between Armenia And Azerbaijan Over Hero's Welcome For A Convicted Killer

A Hero’s Welcome For A Convicted Killer Reignites Tensions -- New York Times

MOSCOW — Ramil Safarov stepped uncertainly off the plane in his native Azerbaijan last Friday, returning home after spending eight years in a Hungarian prison for a gruesome murder. But it took only a few minutes for the celebrations to begin. There was a pardon, a new apartment, eight years of back pay, a promotion to the rank of major and the status of a national hero.

Mr. Safarov, 35, was already famous because of his crime. Eight years ago, carrying an ax, he crept into a dormitory room in Hungary where an Armenian serviceman, a fellow student in a NATO-sponsored English class, slept, and nearly decapitated him.

Read more ....

My Comment: What was Hungary thinking .... and more to the point .... what's next. My prediction .... peace talks are going to be on the back burner for the next year or two.

Another War In The Caucasus?

War Clouds Gathering Again In The Caucasus -- Moscow Times

Three years after the Russia-Georgia armed conflict, war clouds are again gathering in the Caucasus.

Already deadlocked for years, the peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan hit a brick wall on June 24 in Kazan, when a much-anticipated peace summit broke up without agreement. President Dmitry Medvedev had put his personal authority behind the talks, having personally convened nine previous meetings between the two leaders over the past two years.

Read more ....

My Comment: I have my doubts that there will be an Armenia - Azerbaijan war. The Russian's are dead set against it, the West will support Armenia, and the terrain and home advantage favors the Armenians. But then again .... in the past few centuries stupid wars have broken out in this region for far less reasons.

Tensions Rise Between Armenia And Azerbaijan After Peace Talks Fail

Military parade in Azerbaijan. Photo: www.president.az (© ArmeniaNow.com)

Azerbaijan Warns Armenia With Show Of Military Might -- Defense News

BAKU - Azerbaijan paraded thousands of soldiers and hundreds of military vehicles through its capital June 26 in a show of force two days after talks failed to resolve a bitter territorial dispute with Armenia.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, who has overseen massive increases in defense spending, warned in his speech that he was ready to take back the disputed Nagorny Karabakh region, which was seized from Azerbaijan in the 1990s by Armenian separatist forces backed by Yerevan.

Read more ....

More News On The Armenia - Azerbaijan Conflict

Kremlin-Led Karabakh Peace Talks Fail -- Moscow Times
Medvedev disappointed at Kazan results, ready to stop mediator’s mission - Kommersant -- News.am
Azerbaijan In Military Show Of Force After Kazan Talks Fail -- Radio Free Europe
Azerbaijan leader warns of army buildup at huge parade -- Reuters
Azerbaijan Shows Off New Weapons at Military Parade -- Eurasianet.org
Armenia, Azerbaijan blame each other for Karabakh failure -- Reuters
Obama Calls Armenian, Azerbaijani Leaders Ahead Of Summit -- Radio Free Europe
“War is Not Over”: Azerbaijan resumes bellicose rhetoric on Karabakh after Kazan -- Armenia Now

My Comment: As long as Russian troops remain in Armenia, Azerebaijan will not initiate a war and invasion of this region.

Fears Of War Between Azerbaijan And Armenia Are Increasing

‘Frozen Conflict’ Between Azerbaijan And Armenia Begins To Boil -- New York Times

BAKU, Azerbaijan — In a mostly empty Soviet-era building here on a recent morning, a 29-year-old woman pressed her eye against the scope of a sniper rifle, brown hair spilling over her shoulder, and took aim at virtual commandos darting between virtual trees.

Gathered around her were fellow students — a decommissioned soldier, teenage boys with whispery mustaches, a 34-year-old communications worker in Islamic hijab. When sniper training was offered here in April, by an organization that provides courses on military preparation, the classes were a sensation, attracting three times as many students as the instructors could handle.

Read more ....

My Comment: I have doubts that a full blown war will break out between Armenia and Azerbaijan .... for if it does, Russia will come quickly to the aid of Armenia. But a low intensity and drawn out conflict .... unfortunately .... that is one the options that both sides are now being faced with.

Azerbaijan Preparing To Go To War Against Armenia

Azerbaijan, Armenia May Go To War Over Territory -- Defense News/AFP

BAKU, Azerbaijan - Azerbaijan is seriously preparing for war with Armenia over the disputed region of Nagorny Karabakh, the country's defense minister told international peace mediators Feb. 11.

"Azerbaijan is seriously preparing to liberate its territories," Defense Minister Safar Abiyev said in comments published by the ministry's news service.

This is not the first occasion that a top Azerbaijani official has used tough rhetoric over a possible conflict.

Read more ....

Update #1: Azerbaijan preparing for Karabakh war: minister -- AFP
Update #2: Azerbaijan making preparation to liberate Nagorno-Karabakh, say DM -- People's Daily

My Comment: This is not the first time that an official from Azerbaijan has talked about war .... but this is the first time that it is coming from the Defense minister.

Armenia Counters Azerbaijan's Growing Military Spending

Armenia 'Unfazed' By Azerbaijan's Growing Military Spending -- Radio Free Europe

YEREVAN -- A senior Armenian defense official has said Yerevan is seeking a more efficient military at a relatively low cost in response to Azerbaijan's growing military spending, RFE/RL's Armenian Service reports.

Armenian First Deputy Defense Minister David Tonoyan told RFE/RL on October 25 that "asymmetry in military art implies inflicting unacceptable damage on the enemy with little force and fewer capabilities used."

Tonoyan said that as far as Azerbaijan is concerned, Armenia has developed "a strategic system of checks" that he said had stopped Baku from breaking the current peace.

Read more ....

More News On The Conflict Between Armenia And Azerbaijan

Armenian ‘Combat Readiness’ to Neutralize Azerbaijan’s Growing Military Budget -- Asbarez.com
Armenian armed forces break ceasefire in several directions -- News.Az
'Russia understands that Armenia can be crushed by Azerbaijan’s military power' -- News.Az
Dashnaks Expect No Progress in Fresh Karabakh Talks -- Radio Free Europe (Armenia)
Karabakh Bill Pops Up Amid Fresh Armenian-Azeri Talks -- Radio Free Europe (Armenia)
OSCE to monitor Nagorny Karabakh ceasefire -- RIA Novosti

Another Conflict Brewing (Again) In The Caucasus

Several Killed In Nagorno-Karabakh Clash -- BBC

Clashes between the forces of Azerbaijan and Armenian-backed Nagorno-Karabakh have left several soldiers dead, with both sides blaming the other for the violence.

Azerbaijan's defence ministry said three Armenians and two Azeris were killed following an Armenian attack.

Armenian reports said one Armenian was wounded repelling Azeri forces, and up to seven Azeris were wounded or killed.

Read more ....

Update: Azerbaijan Claims Five Killed In Clash On Nagorno-Karabakh Border -- Radio Free Europe

My Comment: When Armenia agreed to a long term military agreement with Russia, Azerbaijan had to react .... hence this border incident. This low intensity conflict has been going on since the breakup of the Soviet Union, and with a defacto annexation of Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding areas now becoming a fat-accompli .... Azerbaijan is reacting to a trend that it correctly perceives is not in its best interest.

Tensions Along The Armenia - Azerbaijan Border

Expand Image to Enlarge
(Image form Wikipedia)

Four Armenian Soldiers Killed Near Karabakh-Report -- Reuters

* Four Armenian soldiers reported killed in Azerbaijan

* Tensions rising with Armenia-Turkey thaw

Four Armenian soldiers were killed in a clash with Azeri forces near the breakaway Azerbaijan region of Nagorno-Karabakh on Thursday, Azeri media reported

Azerbaijan's ANS Press news agency said the fight took place in the Agdam district, next to Nagorno-Karabakh, which threw off Azeri rule in the early 1990s.

Agdam is one of seven Azeri districts surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh and is held by Armenian forces.

Read more ....

Update #1: Five Armenian soldiers killed in clash near Nagorno-Karabakh -- Turkey Daily News
Update #2: Turkish Press Reacts to Turkish-Armenian Normalization -- Jamestown Foundation

My Comment: Muslim Azerbaijan has never accepted the independence of Christian Nagorno Karabakh. Armenia's rapprochement with Turkey was bound to create even more pressure on Azerbaijan to respond .... I can only presume that this is one of their responses.

Armenia - Azerbaijan Conflict Heating Up

Image from Payvand

Azerbaijan Says 3 Soldiers Killed Near Rebel Region -- Reuters

BAKU, Feb 23 (Reuters) - Three Azeri soldiers have been killed and one wounded since Friday in incidents near the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh, the Azeri Defence Ministry said on Monday.

Two were killed by a landmine on Friday. Another died and one was wounded in weekend clashes with Armenian soldiers over their tense front line.

Ethnic Armenian separatists, backed by Armenia, fought a war in the 1990s to throw off Azerbaijan's control over Nagorno- Karabakh. About 30,000 people were killed.

Read more ....

My Comment: A terrible war was fought between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the 1990s. The peace has been uneasy, with both sides deeply distrustful of each other. This conflict needs more attention and followup.