Canadian Security Intelligence Service: Al-Qaeda Likely To Get Bigger, Stronger And More Unpredictable

Al-Qaeda Likely To Get Bigger, Stronger And More Unpredictable In Next Five Years, CSIS Report Says -- National Post

Al-Qaeda will likely become bigger, stronger and more unpredictable over the next five years, according to a Canadian intelligence study that attempted to peer into the future of the evolving terror network.

The report, The Future of al-Qaeda, was the result of a “foresight project” by the Canadian Security Intelligence Service, which asked unidentified “prominent specialists” the question: What might al-Qaeda look like in 2018?

The participants examined scenarios that saw al-Qaeda undergo gradual decline, incremental growth or rapid growth. The second was considered the “most expected,” said the report, recently posted on the CSIS website.

“Incremental growth gradually changes the threats posed by AQ. They become less predictable as AQ leaders, become more autonomous and opportunistic, and they become more potent as AQ avails itself of new weapons and recruits, new funding sources and new safe havens,” it said.

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My Comment: The CSIS report on Al Qaeda is here. It should be noted that U.S. President Obama does not share this point of view.

U.S. Intelligence Disrupted Al Qaeda's Online Magazine

U.S. Disrupts al-Qaeda’s Online Magazine -- Washington Post

U.S. intelligence operatives covertly sabotaged a prominent al-Qaeda online magazine last month in an apparent attempt to sow confusion among the group’s followers, according to officials.

The operation succeeded, at least temporarily, in thwarting publication of the latest issue of Inspire, the English-language magazine distributed by al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. When it appeared online, the text on the second page was garbled and the following 20 pages were blank. The sabotaged version was quickly removed from the online forum that hosted it, according to independent analysts who track jihadi Web sites.

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More News On U.S. Intelligence Disrupting Al Qaeda's Online Magazine

Report: US hacked al Qaeda's online magazine -- The Hill
U.S. Government Screwed With Al Qaeda Magazine After Boston Bombing -- New York Mag
US Sabotages al-Qaeda Mag -- Newser
US Cyber Agents Disrupt Publication Of Popular Al Qaeda Magazine -- Business Insider

Al Qaeda Claims That U.S. Ambassador To Libya Was Killed By Lethal Injection

The caskets of U.S. Ambassador to Libya J. Christopher Stevens, Foreign Service officer Sean Smith, and security officers Tyrone S. Woods and Glen A. Doherty are escorted through an honor cordon on Joint Base Andrews, Md., Sept. 14, 2012. DOD photo by Erin A. Kirk-Cuomo

Al Qaeda Weapons Expert: U.S. Ambassador To Libya Killed By Lethal Injection -- Washington Times

Group sought to kidnap Stevens for exchange of imprisoned terrorists

An al Qaeda terrorist stated in a recent online posting that U.S. Ambassador to Libya J. Christopher Stevens was killed by lethal injection after plans to kidnap him during the Sept. 11 attacks in Benghazi went bad.

The veracity of the claim by Abdallah Dhu-al-Bajadin, who was identified by U.S. officials as a weapons expert for al Qaeda, could not be determined. However, U.S. officials have not dismissed the terrorist’s assertion.

An FBI spokeswoman indicated that the bureau is aware of the claim but declined to comment because of the ongoing investigation into the Benghazi attacks.

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My Comment: A claim that is probably 99.99% false .... but Al Qaeda is very good at targeting their followers with this type of pr-campaign, and that is who this message is for.

An Al Qaeda Complaints Department?

Fighters from Islamist Syrian rebel group Jabhat al-Nusra (Reuters / Ahmed Jadallah)

Al Qaeda Sets Up Complaints Department In Rebel-Held Syrian City And Tells Residents It Will Seek Justice Through Sharia Court -- Daily Mail

* Leaders posted a public notice in the city of Raqqa said complaints can be submitted at headquarters
* Notice states they will 'ensure accountability' through Sharia court
* Raqqa became first major city to fall entirely under rebel control in March

Al Qaeda has set up a complaints department for residents in a rebel-held city in Syria.

Leaders posted a public notice in the north-eastern city of Raqqa claiming that they were open to receiving complaints from citizens and would promise to ensure justice through Sharia courts.

The notice stated: 'We promise that we will ensure accountability for anyone committing violations and they will be sent to the Sharia court of Iraq and al-Sham (Syria),' according to The Telegraph.

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More News On Al Qaeda's "Complaints Department"

Al-Qaeda sets up complaints department -- The Telegraph
Al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch opens complaints department -- RT
Al-Qaeda forms complaints department -- Sydney Morning Herald
Al-Qaeda Sets Up Complaints Department In Syria, Iraq -- RTT

Reports Of Al Qaeda's Imminent Defeat Are Greatly Exaggerated

The al Qaeda Franchise Threat -- Wall Street Journal

Reports of the terrorist group's imminent defeat are greatly exaggerated.

Seven weeks after Osama bin Laden's death in 2011, President Obama declared al Qaeda was "on a path to defeat." He has redeployed the phrase often to justify leaving Afghanistan and slashing defense. Al Qaeda, meanwhile, mocks predictions of its imminent defeat.

Even as the U.S. has "decimated" (the President's word) al Qaeda's senior leadership—killing or capturing 13 of the top 20 most wanted terrorists—it pops up in new locales and forms. In recent months, al Qaeda has revived or started terrorist franchises in Iraq and Syria, across northern Africa and in Nigeria. It lost a haven in Afghanistan but set up bases in Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia. It has nimbly exploited opportunities and is more active and in more places, points out Rand analyst Bruce Hoffman, than on September 11, 2001.

Al Qaeda's tactics have changed by necessity. American special forces and drones drove what's left of the old "core" leadership underground. Administration officials discount the threat from the newer affiliates, saying Somalia's al Shabaab or al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb aren't actively plotting attacks on the U.S.

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My Comment: Yup .... Al Qaeda is certainly not looking like an organization that is about to die.dying

Major Al Qaeda Terror Bust In The United Arab Emirates

UAE Arrests Al-Qaida-Linked 'Terrorist Cell' -- Voice of America

Authorities in the United Arab Emirates have arrested seven people they say are part of an al-Qaida-linked terrorist cell.

The official WAM news agency said Thursday the group was "planning to carry out acts" in the UAE, as well as to recruit others and promote al-Qaida.

It said the seven people arrested were of "Arab nationalities" but did not give additional details.

The statement also said the group was providing money and logistical support to help al-Qaida further its activities in the region.


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More News On The UAE Busting An Al-Qaida Linked 'Terrorist Cell'

UAE says it has arrested plotters linked to al Qaeda -- Reuters
United Arab Emirates arrests 'al-Qaeda terror suspects' -- BBC
Emirates Said to Seize Qaeda Supporters -- New York Times
United Arab Emirates arrests suspected members of al-Qaida ‘terrorist cell’ -- Washington Post/AP
7 terror cell suspects arrested in UAE -- CNN

My Comment: More evidence that Al Qaeda and their supporters are far from "dead".

Is Al Qaeda Shattered?

With Al Qaeda Shattered, U.S. Counter-Terrorism's Future Unclear -- L.A. Times

Opinions differ over how much threat Al Qaeda's factions pose and how U.S. policy and spending should change.

WASHINGTON — Skilled in tracking foreign terrorists, Jarret Brachman once was a sought-after expert on Al Qaeda, advising several federal agencies and speaking regularly around the country.

Now the former research director of the Combating Terrorism Center, a think tank at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, has turned his focus away from Islamic militants. He spends most of his time consulting with federal, state and local law enforcement agencies about threats from domestic extremists and antigovernment militias.

"I have totally re-branded my career," Brachman said. "I still do the Al Qaeda stuff, but there's no interest, no demand.... We've broken Al Qaeda's back, strategically."

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My Comment: Talk about poor timing to raise this question with the dust still settling at the Boston Marathon bombing .... but it has to be asked. U.S. intelligence budgets consume tens of billions of dollars each year .... and while Al Qaeda is still a threat .... a debate on U.S. policy and spending has to be a priority.

Is Al Qaeda Coming Back?

Osama bin Laden and Ayman Zawahiri

Al Qaeda Comeback -- Bruce Riedel, Daily Beast

The terror organization has reemerged, with punchy statements by its emir Zawahiri. How afraid should we be?

After months of silence, al Qaeda’s Amir Ayman Zawahiri reappeared this week with a long diatribe on the state of the global jihad with special emphasis on Syria, Iraq, and Mali. His commentary underscores his central role in the Qaeda movement once again and in providing leadership to the group and its franchises across the Islamic world.

Zawahiri’s latest audio message, his first since last November, runs over a hundred minutes long and was distributed by al Qaeda’s media arm, As Sahab (“In the Clouds”) from his hide-out in Pakistan. It is vintage Zawahiri. He bemoans the fall of the Ottoman caliphate at the end of the First World War and breakup of the Islamic world into 50 or so small states ruled by “traitor rulers” playing the “satanic American program” to benefit the “biggest criminals in Washington, Moscow, and Tel Aviv.” Zawahiri says some of these countries are so small they can only be seen with a microscope on the map and “barely fit the foreign military bases that occupy them,” a likely reference to the American naval base in Bahrain.

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My Comment: It's ideology will probably be around for a long time .... but once it's few remaining leaders are either killed or captured .... the organization itself will probably degrade into different regional factions.

Detailed al Qaeda Strategy For Attacking Targets In Europe And The United States Disclosed

The document is a letter written to Osama bin Laden in March 2010 by a senior operational figure in the terror group.

New al Qaeda Document Sheds Light On Europe, U.S. Attack Plans -- CNN

(CNN) -- A previously secret document found at Osama bin Laden's compound in Pakistan sets out a detailed al Qaeda strategy for attacking targets in Europe and the United States.

The document -- a letter written to bin Laden in March 2010 by a senior operational figure in the terror group -- reveals that tunnels, bridges, dams, undersea pipelines and internet cables were among the targets.

It was written by Younis al-Mauretani, a senior al Qaeda planner thought to have been behind an ambitious plan to hit "soft" targets in Europe in the fall of 2010.

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My Comment: Much of the 'treasure trove' that was taken from Bin Laden's Pakistan compound on the night that he was killed is still classified .... so this 17 pade letter is a surprise My bet is that there is still a considerable amount of intelligence in those files that is still useful and is probably being used in a few counter terrorism and intelligence ops today.

Detailed al Qaeda Strategy For Attacking Targets In Europe And The United States Disclosed

The document is a letter written to Osama bin Laden in March 2010 by a senior operational figure in the terror group.

New al Qaeda Document Sheds Light On Europe, U.S. Attack Plans -- CNN

(CNN) -- A previously secret document found at Osama bin Laden's compound in Pakistan sets out a detailed al Qaeda strategy for attacking targets in Europe and the United States.

The document -- a letter written to bin Laden in March 2010 by a senior operational figure in the terror group -- reveals that tunnels, bridges, dams, undersea pipelines and internet cables were among the targets.

It was written by Younis al-Mauretani, a senior al Qaeda planner thought to have been behind an ambitious plan to hit "soft" targets in Europe in the fall of 2010.

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My Comment: Much of the 'treasure trove' that was taken from Bin Laden's Pakistan compound on the night that he was killed is still classified .... so this 17 pade letter is a surprise My bet is that there is still a considerable amount of intelligence in those files that is still useful and is probably being used in a few counter terrorism and intelligence ops today.

Al Qaeda Magazine Publishes A 'Wanted: Dead Or Alive' List

Al Qaeda Mag Publishes 'Wanted: Dead or Alive' List -- Weekly Standard

"Yes We Can: A Bullet A Day Keeps The Infidel Away.

The latest edition of the al Qaeda English-language magazine Inspire is out today. A digital copy of the magazine, provided by MEMRI (the Washington D.C. based Middle East Media Research Institute), shows a "Wanted: Dead or Alive" feature on page 10 of the new issue:

"Wanted: Dead or Alive for Crimes Against Islam," the page reads. The list includes: Molly Norris, Ayaan Hirsi Ali, Flemming Rose, Morris Swadiq, Salman Rushdie, Girt Wilders [sic], Lars Vilks, Stephane Charbonnie, Carsten Luste, Terry Jones, and Kurt Westergaard.

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Update: Al Qaeda calls for jihadists to kill ex-leaders Clinton, Bush, Blair -- Washington Times

My Comment: More evidence that Al Qaeda is not "dead".

Al Qaeda's New Strategy To Target The West

 

UK Trial Reveals New al Qaeda Strategy To Hit West -- CNN 

The trial of three Birmingham men convicted Thursday of plotting to launch a "catastrophic" suicide bombing attack in the United Kingdom revealed that al Qaeda has developed a new strategy to target the West.

The new strategy involves a teacher-training approach in which a select few Western operatives are taught bombmaking and other aspects of terrorist tradecraft in the tribal areas of Pakistan and are then instructed to return back to the West to "spread the knowledge" to a larger body of Islamist extremists keen on launching attacks.

The new approach is a response to the growing toll of drone strikes which have made travel to the tribal areas increasingly perilous for Western recruits and significantly diminished al Qaeda's ability to orchestrate terrorist plots from the region.

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My Comment: This Al Qaeda strategy is not exactly new. But what is revealing about this report is an admission that drone strikes are effective .... and that admission is coming from the mouths of Al Qaeda operatives themselves.

Is The War Against Al Qaeda far From Won?

President Barack Obama delivers the State of the Union address in the House Chamber at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., Feb. 12, 2013. (Official White House Photo by Chuck Kennedy)

No, Mr President, The War Against al-Qaeda Is Far From Won -- Con Coughlin, The Telegraph

There are times, such as last night's State of the Union address, when I think President Barack Obama has taken leave of reality. How he can claim, when half the Arab world is being overrun by Islamist militants, that al-Qaeda is now a shadow of its former self is beyond comprehension.

Is he forgetting that it is only five months since Chris Stevens, the US ambassador to Libya, died following an attack on the American Consulate in Benghazi by al-Qaeda militants? Is he unaware of al-Qaeda's takeover of large swathes of North Africa? Hasn't anyone told him that al-Qaeda is now playing an active role in trying to overthrow the Assad regime in Damascus, as well as infiltrating other Islamist movements in places such as Egypt and Tunisia?

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My Comment: Al Qaeda is a shadow of it's former self. And while they have the capabilities of reconstituting themselves to some level .... I doubt that President Obama or any other President will permit this to happen.

A New al Qaeda Threat?

Al-Qaeda (AQIM) Leader Mokhtar Belmokhtar

New al Qaeda Threat -- Bill Gertz, The Washington Times

A jihadist website posted a new threat by al Qaeda this week that promises to conduct “shocking” attacks on the United States and the West.

The posting appeared on the Ansar al Mujahidin network Sunday and carried the headline, “Map of al Qaeda and its future strikes.”

The message, in Arabic, asks: “Where will the next strike by al Qaeda be?” A translation was obtained by Inside the Ring.

“The answer for it, in short: The coming strikes by al Qaeda, with God’s Might, will be in the heart of the land of nonbelief, America, and in France, Denmark, other countries in Europe, in the countries that helped and are helping France, and in other places that shall be named by al Qaeda at other times,” the threat states.

The attacks will be “strong, serious, alarming, earth-shattering, shocking and terrifying.”

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My Comment: Here we go again. Jason Burke (The Guardian) has a good analysis how great is the terrorism threat from Al Qaeda to the west now? That link is here.

The Growth Of Al Qaeda In Africa Catches U.S. Officials By Surprise

(Click on Image to Enlarge)

Source: Staff reports. By Craig Whitlock and Laris Karklis/The Washington Post. Published on June 13, 2012.

North Africa Is A New Test -- New York Times

WASHINGTON — The bloody resolution of the hostage crisis in Algeria has brought into focus the broader challenges the United States and its allies face in confronting terrorist cells that have taken up sanctuary across northern Africa.

The United States and France have been courting Algeria for months, hoping to secure its support for an international effort to evict Islamic militants out of northern Mali.

But the militants’ advance south, which set off an appeal for the French military intervention by the Mali government, and the hostage-taking at a gas-producing complex in the Sahara to the north have caught the United States by surprise and prompted fresh White House vows to combat terrorism in the region.

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My Comment: This is a major reversal by the White House from comments made only a few days ago. Unfortunately .... it gives the impression to outside observers (this blogger included) that U.S. counter terrorism policies are now being developed "on the fly" in Africa.

Update: Al-Qaida flourishes in Sahara, emerges stronger -- AP

Al Qaeda Does Not Agree With The Global Consensus That They Have Been Defeated

Al Qaeda, Again -- Wall Street Journal

The terrorists don't seem to agree that they've been defeated.

Between his Inaugural address Monday and the State of the Union speech next month, we hope President Obama finds space to include some comments on Algeria. And Mali. And Benghazi. This isn't an attempt at foreign-policy snark. It's an effort to see the world as it is.

Mr. Obama of late has been doing what can only be described as a mission-accomplished riff on Iraq and Afghanistan, announcing last week an accelerated timetable for getting U.S. troops out of the Afghan theater. From his election campaign through the transition, Mr. Obama has tried to keep the world and its troubles at arm's length. But with the hostage mess at a remote gas plant in Algeria, it is impossible to blink from the reality that the post-bin Laden al Qaeda is still with us and an active threat to U.S. interests.

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My Comment: What also helps Al Qaeda's cause is the perception .... rightly or wrongly .... that as far as the U.S. is concerned .... Al Qaeda is now the world's problem.

Defense Secretary Panetta: US Has To 'Fight Back' Against al Qaeda

U.S. Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta listens to a recording of one of Winston Churchill's speeches during his visit to the Churchill Museum in London, Jan. 19, 2013. Churchill delivered that particular speech, "Fire in British Hearts," on Sept. 11, 1940. Panetta is on a six-day trip to Europe to visit with defense counterparts and troops. DOD photo by Erin A. Kirk-Cuomo

Panetta: US Has To 'Fight Back' Against al Qaeda After Three Americans Killed -- The Hill

The terrorist attack in Algeria that left three Americans and 34 other hostages dead shows that al Qaeda is “committed to creating terror" no matter where its members are located and that America has "got to fight back," Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said Monday.

“I’m glad we were able to get some rescued, but we did lose three Americans,” Panetta told a small group of reporters Monday as he left the inaugural lunch at the Capitol. “That just tells us al Qaeda is committed to creating terror wherever they are, and we’ve got to fight back.”

He said the militant groups have shown a capacity to rebound even after being pushed out of safe havens.

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My Comment: I though the decade of war was ending.

Top Ten Al Qaeda And Terror Leaders Killed Or Indicted This Year

Al-Qaeda’s No. 2 leader, Abu Yahya al-Libi, the charismatic commander who helped steer the terrorist group after Osama bin Laden’s death last year, was killed by a CIA drone strike in Pakistan’s lawless frontier region. Washington Post

The Top Terror Takedowns Of 2012 -- CNN

One of the most wanted terrorists in Yemen. A son of the Haqqani Network founder. A man whose capture was worth $5 million to the FBI: The United States and its allies took out some of these key terror leaders throughout 2012.

Take a look at those top leaders and more who were killed or indicted in the past year:

1. Abu Yahya al-Libi
Al-Libi was second in command of al Qaeda under Ayman al-Zawahiri and a senior leader of the terror group’s external operations against the West. Al-Libi was also an Islamic scholar who appeared in many recruitment videos. The U.S. State Department offered a $1 million reward for his capture. He was killed on June 4 in a U.S. drone strike in Pakistan.

2. Fahd Mohammed Ahmed al-Quso
A senior al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula operative, al-Quso was wanted for his role in the USS Cole bombing in 2000, which killed 17 U.S. sailors. The U.S. State Department had offered a $5 million reward for his capture. Al-Quso was killed on May 6 in a U.S. drone strike in Shabwa province, Yemen.

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My Comment: He still is on the loose, but I look forward to the day when they get this Al Qaeda leader.

The Brutality Of Life Under Al Qaeda In Mali

Mass Rape, Amputations And Killings – Why Families Are Fleeing Terror In Mali -- The Guardian

At refugee camps, reports are flooding in of horrific human rights abuses in a country once famous for its music and joyous lifestyle. Mark Townsend reports on the jihadist nightmare in the Sahel

They were told to assemble in Gao's market place at dusk. A man accused of using tobacco was escorted before the crowd by several members of the al-Qaida splinter group Movement for Tawhid and Jihad in West Africa.

"Then they chopped off his hand. They wanted to show us what they could do," said Ahmed, 39, a meat trader from the town in northern Mali.

That was not the end of it. The severed hand was tossed into a vat of boiling water. Then, according to Ahmed, the man was pinned down and over the next hour the bent, misshapen hand was sewn crudely back onto his stump. Ahmed, too terrified to disclose his full name, fled Gao the next day, 8 November: "I had to go. I could not live my life."

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My Comment: Unfortunately .... military intervention alone will not solved the problem.

Al Qaeda Is Not "Dying"

Photo: Al Qaeda flag.

In Foiled Jordanian Terror Plot, Officials See Hand Of Resurgent al-Qaeda In Iraq -- Washington Post

AMMAN, Jordan — The plan was to unleash mayhem across an entire city and “bring Amman to its knees,” in the words of one security official. It would start with suicide bombings at two shopping malls, then build momentum as teams of terrorists blew up cars and raked cafes with machine-gun fire.

In the midst of the chaos that would ensue, the attackers would turn their attention to the U.S. Embassy, the primary target and a long-sought prize for the organization that investigators say provided critical support for the scheme: al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Iraq. Using the terrorist group’s expertise and weapons from Syria’s civil war, the plotters planned to rain mortar shells on the American compound and homes nearby.

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Update: Al Qaeda 3.0: Terrorism’s Emergent New Power Bases -- Bruce Riedel, Daily Beast

My Comment: Al Qaeda is also expanding in the African Sahara, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Reuters, etc..