Will President Obama 'Abandon' Syria?

Russians Think Obama Will Bail on Syria -- Jonathan S. Tobin, The Commentary

American cable news stations devoted a lot of airtime today to Senator John McCain’s surprising visit to Syria where he met with the leader of a moderate rebel faction. The trip was supposed to focus attention on the effort to influence the West to aid the rebels, or at least those rebel factions that are not tainted by association with Al Qaeda terrorists. But while McCain restarted the conversation about the need for the U.S. to stop pretending it can ignore the crisis in that war torn country, his venture was actually overshadowed by the Russian announcement that it would persist in its determination to sell air defense missiles to the embattled Assad government.

Read more ....

My Comment: My nationality is Russian, so I do to understand what Russian pundits and commentators are saying. Bottom line .... Russians do not believe that the U.S. has the will or motivation to get entangled into another Middle Eastern War .... especially in a civil war like Syria's. What Russians are mainly concerned about is the U.S. giving the green light to it's Middle Eastern and European allies to arm the rebels .... which is where we are now going. Russia also does not want to get caught up in a quagmire like Syria .... but of the two powers it is the Russians (not the Americans) who are now finding themselves committed to a losing cause in Syria .... a situation that can only get worse with time.

Why Russia Will Not Be A Superpower

Russian army. Photo: RIA Novosti

Using Magic to Turn Russia Into A Superpower -- Alexander Golts, Moscow Times

Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin has finally gotten his wish: Russian science has overtaken every other country by apparently figuring out how to clone a fully grown 18-year-old youth. How else would you explain President Vladimir Putin's recent order to Defense Ministry brass that the army should be fully staffed at 1 million men within two years?

The military would have to draft 600,000 conscripts annually to have 1 million men in uniform. That is the same number of men who turn 18 each year, and some sources predict the number will fall to as low as 470,000 within the next two years. That means every single 18-year-old male would have to be corralled into the army, including those with physical disabilities and chronic illnesses — and even that wouldn't be enough to reach the magic one-million mark. The only way around the problem would be to clone healthy 18-year-olds as quickly as possible.

Read more ....

My Comment: It comes down to population .... and Russia's population is decreasing while at the same time many of it's young people are wanting to immigrate out of the country.

The Putin Doctrine

Vladimir Putin. © RIA Novosti. Alexei Druzhinin

Russia: Introducing The Putin Doctrine -- Anna Nemtsova, Daily Beast

Russia’s president flexes his muscle at home and abroad.

Six months after returning to power in the face of mounting opposition, Russian President Vladimir Putin is exercising his political capital—and doing so in imperial fashion. The most recent example: earlier this month, sitting at a small table in his ornate, oak-walled office in the Kremlin, Putin announced that Russia was creating the world’s largest publicly traded oil company. The goal: to restore the glory of Russia the only way Putin seems to know how—the raw acquisition of power. “He is trying to keep stability, as he sees it, with billions of dollars in oil,” said Evgeny Gontmakher, an analyst at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, a Moscow-based think tank. “I predict chaos.”

Read more ....

My Comment: He is going to Russia's President for the next 6 years .... maybe 12 .... so his doctrine and intentions need to be watched very closely.

Russia's Future?

Russia’s Future - Grumpy Petro-Giant Armed-to-the-Teeth with Social Unrest -- Michael Lee, Transhumanity

Although Russia’s population has peaked and is now decreasing, this resource-rich Eurasian giant will not go gently into the good night of decline.

Nor will the rich tapestry of Russian history, populated with larger-than-life autocrats such as Ivan the Terrible, Peter the Great, Lenin, Stalin and Putin, and defined by world-shaking events like the Russian Revolution, the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union, become uneventful in the 21st century.

Read more ....

My Comment: Is Russia becoming a grumpy economic powerhouse that is armed-to-the-teeth filled with social unrest country? My nationality is Russian .... so I am talking from a certain perspective .... and what is my perspective .... cough, cough .... Russia throughout it's history has always been a grumpy country that is armed-to-the-teeth and filled with social unrest (I left out economic powerhouse).

Russia Will Not Be A Super Power Under Putin

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev watch the Victory Parade on Moscow's Red Square. Russia celebrates the 67th anniversary of victory over Nazi Germany on May 9. REUTERS/Vladimir Rodionov/RIA Novosti/Pool

Putin's Russia Won't Achieve Super Power Status -- Scheherazade Rehman, US News & World Report

While Mother Nature (super-storm hurricane Sandy) was causing destruction throughout the north-eastern seaboard of the United States on Monday, across on the other side of the world Russians were remembering a man-made destruction. Over a period of two years (1937-38), approximately 1.7 million people were arrested and sent to gulags, and of which more than 750,000 were executed under Joseph Stalin's brutal crackdown. Why is this Remembrance Day particularly poignant for the Russians this year? In all likelihood Russian efforts to regain superpower status is going to be associated with increased state repression. (This is the third of a series of articles on potential superpowers.)

Read more ....

My Comment: I concur with this analysis .... Russia will remain Russia (i.e. nothing will change).

Can Russia Become A Superpower Again?

Putin's Russia -- Al Hazeera

As Vladimir Putin begins his third term as president, we ask if Russia can become a superpower once again.

Russia is the largest country on the planet. It straddles nine time zones, is the largest energy producer and possesses half the world's nuclear warheads.

But Russia is not the former Soviet Union.

Since the Cold War ended two decades ago, the new emerging Russia has been largely defined by two men, Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin.

Read more ....

My Comment: Can Russia become a super power again? The Russian in me says yes .... the outsider in me says .... no. The economic resource base is there, but demographics coupled with a backward business/legal/political culture will not make this possible. Throw in serious security issues such as the Caucasus, Islamic radicals, and unstable former Soviet states on the borders .... the focus cannot be on becoming a super power .... instead .... the focus will be on it's borders and on it's weak economy.

Is Building A Modern Russian Army A Pipe-Dream?

Putin eating with soldiers

Putin's Pipe Dream for Building a Modern Army -- Alexander Golts, Moscow Times

Listening to Vladimir Putin's statements during his presidential campaign, you would think the country was at war.

The national leader was constantly calling upon the Russian people to defeat the enemy, presumably the United States. To give substance to his fear-mongering, Putin held a record number of meetings with defense and security agencies, including a specially convened gathering of military unit commanders, the elite Taman mechanized-infantry brigade and experts at the federal nuclear weapons center in Sarov. At each meeting, participants asked prepared questions concerning the threat of a foreign-financed Orange Revolution. Putin answered by saying the country would act in strict accordance with the law, which is to say that the siloviki will be willing to crush the protest movement, if necessary.

Read more ....

My Comment: Russia is committed to spending money on its military .... but will the military get it, will they spend it wisely, and do they have the man power and human resources to field an effective military when this is spent .... hmmm .... I have my doubts. The reason why is simple .... the demographics are just no longer there for Russia to field a military force that everyone will take notice. The only advantage that the Russians have is in their nuclear forces .... but in today's world they only serve as a deterrent against other nuclear powers .... on the battle fields of today and of the future .... they are completely ineffective.

Can Moscow Regain Superpower Status?

Can Moscow Regain Superpower Status? This Fighter Jet Is Key -- Global Post

Russia’s military attempts to build a 21st century fighter. But can it?

MOSCOW – Russia is desperate for the world to think of it as a superpower again.

Last week, Vladimir Putin — the country’s once and presumed future president — proposed the formation of a “Eurasian Union” among former Soviet states. The move was widely seen as a challenge to the West, and a push to reestablish Moscow’s former empire.

Putin floated his idea in the context of an unprecedented Russian military renaissance. Moscow is so eager to re-establish its military mojo, in fact, that it has pledged $730 billion to equip its long-neglected armed forces with 21st century weaponry by 2020. According to the plan, Russia's military will receive 1,000 new helicopters, 600 combat aircraft and 100 warships – including aircraft carriers and 8 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines. The build-up also envisions new generations of intercontinental missiles and advanced air defense systems.

Read more ....

My Comment: Once Russia's avionics are just as good as Americas .... and they can reverse their demographic trends .... that is when one can then say that Russia is closer to regaining it's superpower status. But Russia's high-tech and manufacturing facilities are not to the same level as America's (or China's) .... and because of that they will not succeed.

The Russian Military Is Just A Shell Of Its Former Self

Russia’s Hollow Force -- DoD Buzz

Every couple of months, a top Russian leader makes a bold proclamation: We’re back. We’ve got a new SSBN, we’re going to build a new fleet of aircraft carriers, we’ve got new tactical aircraft so stealthy one just landed on the White House lawn. Accordingly, the headlines crackle all over the world: Cold War II! Russia Vows Major Arms Buildup In Challenge to West! The Bear Has Returned!

Then, once the rumpus dies down, nothing happens. The ‘resurgent Russia’ storyline gets packed away for the next time a Tu-95 buzzes an American warship at sea, or a top official in Moscow throws a little fit over the mean ol’ West and its mean ol’ ambitions for missile defense. (An external boogeyman remains politically useful in the new Russia.)

Read more ....

My Comment: I will have to agree .... the Russian military is a shadow of what it once was. And even though every few months there are calls (and commitments) within Russia to expand and modernize their military .... little if anything is done. The full extent of this decline was revealed to me by my uncle years ago. He brought me to the place in St. Petersburg where he worked as a Director for the development of military satellites for the former Soviet Union .... today .... it is a shopping mall.

Is Russia Becoming A Third World Country?

A Time And A Place For Russia -- Mikhail B. Khodorkovsky, New York Times

For Russia, the past decade started out on an optimistic note. The country was emerging from a severe financial crisis and the political upheavals of the ’90s. Industry and agriculture were rapidly recovering and the financial system had been rescued and strengthened. Business attracted millions of people to apply their efforts and talents. The institutions of state had begun to work more reliably and the structures of a real civil society had begun to form.

Read more ....

My Comment: When Gorbachev change the law to permit easy travel in/and out from Russia, I was one of the first to take advantage of this openness to visit my relatives. On a number of my trips .... and because a number of my relatives had contacts within the government (and were in government) .... I was offered numerous business opportunities to invest in Russia.

I did not take any of them. Many of the deals were too good to be true. Prime real estate at pennies on the dollar. Investments in the resource sector were even cheaper. Factories and engineering firms that employed thousands could be bought for a small bribe. Everything and anything could be bought cheap and quickly.

The reason why they were so many opportunities was because the bureaucrats and managers who Ok's these sales (and accepted the bribes) always felt confident that in the end the state would take over these interests (again), and kick out these speculators. Mikhail B. Khodorkovsky was one of these speculators/pirates .... buying huge swaths of Russia's oil industries at unbelievably low prices.

But surprise .... surprise .... in the beginning the state did not move to stop these privatizations .... privatizations that were corrupt in every way. It took President Putin and the power of the state to finally bust up these oligarchs .... and to put people like Mikhail B. Khodorkovsky in jail ... where he does belong.

So back to the question .... Is Russia becoming a third world state? Absolutely not. Is Russia having problems .... absolutely yes. But these problems are puny in comparison to what Russia has gone through in the past few centuries .... a state of affairs that I can assure you that many Russians prefer than the world that Mikhail B. Khodorkovsky prefers.

Russia Goes From Bad To Worse -- A Commentary

From American Thinker:

Two frightening events last week showed the unbridled contempt with which the neo-Soviet regime of proud KGB spy Vladimir Putin views the rule of law.

First, a Russian court in Siberia entered a $1.7 billion judgment against the Norwegian telecommunications firm Telenor, wiping out its stake in the major Russian telecom entity, Vimplecom. One Russian investment analyst said the ruling "makes the flesh creep." That's because "Western banks and companies are owed $453 billion by Russian corporations, an amount three times as much as they are owed by Chinese, Indian and Brazilian companies combined," and it does not appear that Putin's Kremlin is inclined to tender repayment now that Russia is mired in a horrific recession that has seen 75% of the stock market's equity vanish and the currency lose one-third of its value.

Read more ....

The Russia Opportunity -- A Commentary

Photo: Pushing the button: It won't be easy to reset after 16 years of failed Russia policy. FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP/Getty Images

From Foreign Policy:

Barack Obama has an opportunity to establish a new relationship with Russia that will make the world a safer place. With ties between the two countries being the most strained they've been in decades, the U.S. president seems to recognize there must be changes in his country's approach to Russia.

The Russians themselves seem uncertain about the direction of U.S. policy. Since Obama was elected, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev vowed to place missiles on the border of the European Union in response to any United States missile defense radar in Poland and Czechoslovakia, then decided to pull them back. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has blamed the United States for the global financial crisis and also expressed optimism about the new U.S. president. Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov welcomed a conciliatory foreign policy speech from Vice President Joe Biden at the same time that his country, by pressuring Kyrgyzstan to kick out a U.S. military base, made it clear that Moscow wants to be included in any dialogue about Central Asia.

Read more ....

My Comment: To early to say where all of this is going to go .... but at least they are talking.

Russia's Superpower Strategy Runs Out Of Gas -- A Commentary

Gas flares from the Priobskoye oil field in Russia send smoke into the sky.
Joseph Sywenkyj for The New York Times

From Asia Times:

The global economic crisis has prompted some observers to speculate that Russia has little choice but to abandon its international assertiveness in favor of re-engaging the West and diversifying its energy-dependent economy.

The Russian leadership, however, has shown little inclination to principally revise its international strategy and its petro component. The Kremlin assumes that the alternative to its energy-based strategy is a decline relative to existing and rising powers, which will lead to the degeneration of Russia into a geographically truncated, under-populated and resource-depleted nation that accepts political demands from others.

Read more ....

Russia's Putin Shows His True Colors -- A Commentary

From IBD Editorials:

Energy: Russia signed off on a new agreement for fuel deliveries to Europe, resolving its gas cutoff crisis with Ukraine. But much of what it did this weekend should warn Europe it's time to look for another supplier.

Until Monday, Russia's case against Ukraine looked credible. The latter was a $1.5 billion deadbeat, refused to pay its $600 million in contractual fines, overconfidently insisted on reduced rates in new contracts, and may have been siphoning Russian gas from its pipelines that it was contractually obliged to pay for. There's little doubt Ukraine's actions hurt Gazprom, the Russian energy giant, which was in bad fiscal shape and needed income from reliable customers downstream who paid retail.

What's more, Gazprom didn't appear to have political motives in demanding Ukraine payment — it was trying to boost gas deliveries to Europe through the Ukrainian pipeline to meet its obligations.

Read more ....

Kremlin Uses Gas As A Weapon -- A Commentary

From The L.A. Times:

On the surface, the battle between Russia and Ukraine that has choked off natural-gas supplies to much of Europe in the dead of a cold winter is a purely commercial dispute. Deeper down, it's something more menacing -- part of what looks like a calculated strategy by Russia to regain influence over countries that were once part of the Soviet empire and to neutralize European opposition.

Gazprom, Russia's state gas monopoly, is as much a policy arm of the Kremlin as it is a company. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is its former chairman. It owns a big Russian media company and operates it as a government propaganda arm. It is the largest extractor of natural gas in the world and accounts for a quarter of Russia's budget. The government controls a majority of its board, and though Gazprom's management decision-making structure is murky, most analysts believe the man who really calls the shots is Russian Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin, who once argued in a scholarly paper that Russia's energy resources were the key to promoting its national interests.

Read more ....

Russia Is Playing Power Games, So We Must Learn To Power Ourselves -- A Commentary

From The Telegraph:

With Vladimir Putin using his country's gas reserves as a political weapon, Britain must develop a secure energy policy, writes Brian Wilson.

The airwaves have been busy over the past week with politicians and experts declaring that we must not become over-dependent on Russian gas for our energy security. Less than five years ago, to my certain knowledge, some of them were saying the exact opposite.

At that time, the nodding donkeys of Whitehall were preoccupied with ridding Britain of nuclear power. That seemed to me perverse, not least because it is our one serious source of carbon-free electricity at a time when carbon reduction is supposedly one of our national and global priorities.

Read more ....