Projecting Body Counts In War Is Not An Exact Science

The 'Science' Of Projecting Body Counts In War -- Haaretz

Declassified U.S. documents and experience suggest that Ehud Barak's projection of 'fewer than 500' dead in a war with Iran is likely an underestimate.

Room 620 in the King David Hotel was placed at the disposal of the high-ranking American diplomat. Not just a room, it was a whole series of rooms, suited for both sleeping and work. The guests had brought with them an electronic device known as a babbler, which was intended to disrupt any possible eavesdropping that would gain Israel vital intelligence data that could prove useful in negotiations.

The diplomat was Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and it was the summer of 1975, at the height of efforts toward a second disengagement agreement in Sinai. Revelation of Kissinger's use of the babbler may be found in a volume of recently declassified U.S. Department of State documents. For whatever reason, the publisher of the volume - which happens to be the current administration - elected not to censor this highly instructive detail, which reveals that the Israelis were suspected of conducting espionage, with Kissinger as the target.

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My Comment: I recall reading projections that 15,000 US soldiers were going to be killed in any prolonged war with Iraq in 2003 .... so like war planning, projecting "body counts in war" is not an exact science. But it usually does give a heads up to the decision makers that  war is a bloody business that will have consequences .... and one should always expect the worse when it comes to projecting "body counts".